Nate Silver: Bloomberg running probably won't have much effect on the race.

[highplainsdem]

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Link to tweet

Quite a few D primary polls included Bloomberg earlier in the year and he generally polled in the low single digits, around 2 or 3%. I'm not sure there's any particular reason to think he'd do better now. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/ …


So while it's fun to speculate what the effects will be (hurts Biden because he's a moderate? hurts Bernie/Warren because he'll attack them? hurts Mayor Pete because he'll steal his fundraising base?) the default assumption should probably be that there won't be much effect.


This is also a case where you should be watchful for media myopia (and a few people will tell on themselves). Bloomberg is a towering, highly influential figure in NYC, where much of the media lives. That doesn't mean there's going to be a constituency for him in Davenport, Iowa.

[still_one]

1. Bloomberg I think made it clear the only way he would consider running is if Joe Biden dropped out

which isn't going to happen

Though I believe he is making plans in case that happens

[Demsrule86]

2. Biden is doing well ...Bloomberg has always wanted to run...the only cure for presidential

fever is death.

[highplainsdem]

3. I'm guessing Bloomberg feels this is his last chance to run for president, especially if one of our

candidates wins, and he can afford to run now, using his own money, so...

It's sort of a vanity run, IMO.

He might think he can steal some of Biden's support, too, but I seriously doubt that Biden supporters, who polls are finding are more committed to Biden than other candidates' supporters are to them, have just been waiting for Bloomberg tp decide to run. LOL.

[empedocles]

4. fox news is big on Bloomberg. 'Will turn the Democratic race upside down.'

fox apparently hasn't heard anything worth repeating about roger stone - maybe they no longer know of roger stone.

[highplainsdem]

5. They're hoping Bloomberg will hurt Biden, so they're thrilled about this. Warren and Sanders

supporters on Twitter are apparently hoping the same thing, so they're happy.

I think Nate Silver is right, that Bloomberg will have minimal effect, probably more on the candidates polling in single digits.

[Doodley]

6. I believe Nate Silver is wrong.

[myohmy2]

7. Bloomberg running...

...sure ain't gonna hurt Bernie or Elizabeth...

...he's going after and will split the moderate/establishment vote...

...Bloomberg's no fool...

...he's spotted weakness in Joe and a hot-bed of dissatisfied moderates willing to listen...


...but wasn't Bloomberg a republican?

"A Democrat before seeking elective office, Bloomberg switched his party registration in 2001 to run for mayor as a Republican. He defeated opponent Mark Green in a close election held just weeks after the September 11 terrorist attacks. He won a second term in 2005, and left the Republican Party two years later."


...a billionaire, a former republican, a 'more of the same' moderate; I don't know...

...I think Bernie and Elizabeth will beat him like a drum...

[highplainsdem]

8. Bloomberg won't hurt Biden, who's a liberal, not a moderate. There's nothing in Bloomberg's

resume to attract Biden supporters.

Nor will Bloomberg pick off Warren or Sanders supporters.

HRC could cut into Biden's support, if she ran again. He's picked up more of her 2016 supporters than any other candidate has.

But Bloomberg can't do that.

What Bloomberg might do is put significant amounts of money into running against the wealth tax.

[BeyondGeography]

9. That would be brilliant

Link to tweet

[emmaverybo]

10. Thank you for reminding us that Joe is a liberal. That he is not a pie-in-the-sky Democrat does not

mean he is a centrist.

[Joe941]

11. Yeah his campaign is probably DOA

[Baclava]

12. He could drop a Billion dollar ad campaign attacking Biden as weak, that would stir the pot

If he does run he has the media centers in NYC ready to give him massive coverage, no doubt, no telling what his long term affect could be

[emmaverybo]

13. Such hopes!

[highplainsdem]

17. If Bloomberg tried that, the backlash would probably have him down to 1% or less rather than

the 4% a new Morning Consult poll has him at. He isn't going to win over somewhat liberal and moderate Democrats attacking the man who's been their favorite for about a year already.

If Bloomberg does finally decide to enter the race, it'll most likely be because he's worried about Warren and/or Sanders, and I'd expect his ad campaign to be directed against them.

Polls show the public option is much more popular than Medicare For All getting rid of private insurance. Bloomberg could easily spend millions on ads explaining why. MFA has been crucial to both the Warren and Sanders campaigns, and it's unlikely they could back away from it.

Bloomberg wouldn't have to say anything about the wealth tax. All he has to do is focus on the reasons many people don't like MFA.

[Gothmog]

14. More from Nate

Link to tweet

?s=20

[highplainsdem]

15. Thanks, Gothmog! That's an important tweet about the new Morning Consult poll:

First poll since Bloomberg semi-entered the race shows:

—Him at just 4%
—Worst net favorables in D field
—Biden still with a clear lead; no particular evidence Biden impacted more than others

Not exactly the "seismic disruption" that some predicted.

[crazytown]

16. I hope Silver is right

There is no doubt Bloomberg is going to energize the Warren and Sanders campaigns but his stint as Mayor of NYC is no substitute for Biden's decades long experience in Congress, and foreign relations. The party cannot risk a complete neophyte who does not understand, first hand, how the U.S. Congress operates.