'Tio Bernie' Is Courting the Latino Votes He Needs to Win

[Uncle Joe]

(snip)

Mr. Sanders has collected more money from Latino voters than any other candidate in the Democratic field, raising three times more from the group than Barack Obama did in 2008. He leads among Latino voters in a set of new surveys conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College, receiving 28 percent of the Democratic primary vote in six swing states.

(snip)

“We’re a community of struggle, and this is a man who knows struggle,” said Anthony Mercado, a 48-year-old maintenance worker, who wore a “Bernie 2016” T-shirt while sitting outside the East Los Angeles Sanders campaign office the day it opened last month. “Latinos have been promised things and then the winds change. But he’s been saying the same things ever since he started.”

(snip)

In a recent poll of likely Democratic voters from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group, 39 percent of Latinos in California said they prefer Mr. Sanders, compared to 21 percent for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and 5 percent for Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Latinos make up 24 percent of likely Democratic voters in the state, according to the group.

(snip)

It had been just two weeks since Mr. Sanders had a heart attack, but whatever concern his supporters had seemed to quickly melt away. Far from seeing his age as a liability, many Latinos said in interviews they supported him precisely because they view him as an elder who deserves to be respected.

(snip)



(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/bernie-sanders-latino-voters.html

I believe this to be a good analysis.

[beastie boy]

1. With Bernie's war chest, he may as well

He is sorely behind other candidates among Latinos nationally, AOC endorsement notwithstanding. He may get an additional 1 or2 percent of Latino vote if he throws money at them.

[Uncle Joe]

2. I believe you have cause and effect backward,

just reading the first paragraph, Latinos are "throwing money" at Bernie.

[beastie boy]

3. The two are not mutually exclusive

Bernie is #1 at fundraising among Democratic candidates. He has a well established core of supporters. Yet, with all the money at his disposal, he has precious little to show for it. He is consistently #3 in the polls, and can't pass this threshold. The last time around, he was consistently #2, with less money.

Correlation doesn't mean causation. Bernie has yet to show any progress among black and Latino voters.

[Uncle Joe]

4. If Bernie's message didn't resonate with Latinos, they wouldn't be sending him

record amounts of campaign contributions, after all as some people like to point out, Bernie is from a "small white" state.

As for the polls.

(snip)

In Iowa and Nevada, the Sanders campaign believes that even a slightly increased Latino turnout in the states’ caucuses will deliver significantly more delegates to Mr. Sanders. And the campaign has several reasons to be optimistic. In 2016, Mr. Sanders prevailed in just one primary state where Latinos made up at least 15 percent of the population, but in several surveys of the 2020 field, Latino voters — expected to be the largest minority voting group — have indicated that they favor Mr. Sanders more than any other presidential candidate.

In a recent poll of likely Democratic voters from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group, 39 percent of Latinos in California said they prefer Mr. Sanders, compared to 21 percent for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and 5 percent for Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Latinos make up 24 percent of likely Democratic voters in the state, according to the group.

The Sanders campaign has collected more money from Latino donors — both among individuals and total contributions — than any other campaign, raising four times as much from the group as the Warren campaign and five times more than the Biden campaign, according to an analysis of ActBlue contributions by Juan M. Proaño, the chair of Plus Three, a fund-raising and technology group.

At a presidential forum sponsored by the League of United Latin American Citizens in Des Moines last month, Mr. Sanders spoke after the former housing secretary, Julián Castro, and Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas congressman. Only Mr. Sanders received a standing ovation as he entered the room.

(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/bernie-sanders-latino-voters.html

[beastie boy]

5. Regardless of how you define "record", does record amount of contributions in any given state amount

to record support?

I don't think so.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3662de7c-9fe8-4524-b39b-789835905d98

As a fellow DUer wisely observed recently, I believe you have cause and effect backwards.

[Uncle Joe]

6. Regarding your poll, why would this number be so low?

(snip)

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 state of CA adults 10/15/19 through 10/16/19, immediately following the CNN/NYTimes Democratic Candidate debate on 10/15/19. Of the adults interviewed, 1,242 are registered to vote in California. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 533 were likely to vote in California's presidential primary 03/03/20, which in 2020 is held on so-called Super Tuesday. SurveyUSA has polled the state of CA in each of the past 3 months --- following the August Democratic Candidate debate, following the September Democratic Candidate debate, and today, following the October Democratic Candidate debate. To see "tracking graphs" that show SurveyUSA time-series data tracked at the sub-population, demographic level, click on a "Triangle T" where such a graphic appears on the report that follows. As is true with any opinion research report, the fewer the individual respondents in the sub-population, the larger the chance that sampling error and other error may make those estimates less precise. This election poll, like all election polls, is not designed to have predictive value, since by the time Californians vote in March, a number of current candidates may have suspended their campaigns and no longer be on the ballot. For this reason, 2nd-choice candidate preference may factor into a complete analysis of these poll results.

(snip)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3662de7c-9fe8-4524-b39b-789835905d98

I'm wondering who they discounted?

[beastie boy]

8. I thought they were clear on who they discounted.

Those who were not likely to vote in California's presidential primary. It's all there, in the text you bolded.

As far as the criteria for their determination, that's way above my pay scale to comment on.

[Uncle Joe]

9. Maybe I missed it, but I don't see a margin of error listed on your poll either,

aren't reputable polls supposed to list that?

[beastie boy]

10. With 9,000,000 registered dems in California and sample size of 533, the margin of error is 4.24

If you don't believe me, you can calculate it yourself:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

Reputable polls give you the MOE, super reputable polls assume you don't have to trust what they tell you.

Any more nits to pick?

[Uncle Joe]

11. Only that the same super reputable pollster missed it by about 39% two weeks before

the California Democratic primary in 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_Democratic_primary


Nonetheless, thanks for that link.

[beastie boy]

14. You're welcome, Uncle Joe. I find this calculator pretty handy myself.

But it remains to be seen how accurate the poll os this year.

[beastie boy]

13. I am not convinced.

You are likely referring to these charts:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

According to the Race chart, Bernie's total of all support by race, including "other", adds up to about 39%, not 100% as it should have been if it measured the totality of Bernie's vote, and not 16% as it should have been if it measured the totality of all votes. So I am not sure what exactly the Economist measures, and how.

[SidDithers]

7. Do a site search for Clinton and abuela...

that will be a fun bunch of reading.

But "Tio Bernie" is fine.



Sid