RCP Average: Biden 28.3% Sanders+Warren 38.2% (17.6+20.6)

[crazytown]

Biden is having difficulty clearing 30%, Sanders has a solid 15% floor. At this time, we are looking at a brokered convention folks.

[LAS14]

1. Yes, this is a very relevant statistic. But it's also relevant,

I'm afraid, that Sanders + Warren is not > 50%.

[BannonsLiver]

2. Bookmarking.

[LAS14]

3. What was happening when Warren peaked in mid October? Has...

... any analyst dug into this?

tia
las

[highplainsdem]

6. She peaked before the debate last month, which did not go well for her.

And of course Biden's been under nonstop attack for months.

[LAS14]

7. Aaahhh, right. That's when she would explain her M4A plan. It had...

.... receded into ancient history for me, but it doesn't look like the general Dem voting population was as cheered by her detailed, fact-based answer as I was. Too bad.

[comradebillyboy]

19. I generally like her plans but the MfA is just too flawed. She needs to

find a way to unshackle herself from MfA.

[MineralMan]

4. Oh, it's a very long time until the convention.

A very long time, indeed.

[Pisces]

5. No

[highplainsdem]

8. I've seen Sanders supporters hoping for a brokered convention since they're sure it'll favor Sanders

but I think this is the first time I've seen a Warren supporter talking up a brokered convention.

And btw, if you're combining candidates' numbers, I'd expect those for Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and probably Harris to be added to Biden's.

[crazytown]

9. I'm not hoping for a brokered convention

I am reading the numbers. It is reasonable to point out that Biden has not (yet) established a winning lead. The almost certain result of a brokered convention is the loser(s) whining 'we wuz robbed'.

[still_one]

14. There are still a significant number of undecided voters not reflected by this

[Demsrule86]

20. Not true ...individuals run not teams...thus according to what I hear the individual with the most

delegates will be pushed over the finish line by the the supers on the second ballot. I would suggest that either Sanders and /or Warren needs to get out of the primary before the convention rather than allow their vote to be diluted...wouldn't be the first time that progressives have lost this way. And there is a good chance that both Sanders and Warren will find themselves below the 15% rule in various states also. A brokered convention especially if it involves putting a candidate who did not attract the AA vote over the top and making such a person our nominee will result in a Trump victory.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

25. Joe won't even make it to a brokered convention...so the only question is who picks up his support.

So far, it looks like Elizabeth will pick up the majority of Joe's primary supporters. Good for Elizabeth!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[redstateblues]

10. Boom. There you go.

The rest of the field is more in line with Joe

[crazytown]

11. "Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and probably Harris to be added to Biden's"

But they've got to clear 15% to win delegates. Harris' votes will mostly go to Warren. We will see what happens now that O'Rourke has dropped out, but I think Pete will be the main beneficiary. Pete is cashed up, he will not be dropping out.

[boomer_wv]

12. It's not going to be a brokered convention.

Trump had trouble clearing 30% too, until he didn't.

[Thekaspervote]

13. This! Brokered conventions are rare .. the last one was 68 yrs ago

[Demsrule86]

24. What do you think of the new attempt to make Warren the front and/or Sanders the

front runner...by combining the their votes. The assumption is every supporter also supports the other candidate... just generally not a good idea and not true either...but even this can't hide the fact that Biden is still the front runner as he has been all along...leading in the RCP polling.

[boomer_wv]

29. It's absurd.

The assumption is that every Bernie and Warren voter are doing so based completely on ideological grounds when most voters aren't all that ideological. We can just look at the most recent Morning Consult polls to see that this is garbage.

Nearly identical numbers of Bernie and Warren supporters show Biden as their 2nd choice than the other.

Warren supporters favor Bernie as their 2nd choice to Biden only 32% to 28%. Warren has an identical advantage over Biden with Bernie supporters, 28% to 24%. However neither of these advantages suggests that there would be a significant change in the race for Warren or Sanders if the other were to drop out. We see that trend continues when you look at Pete and Harris supporters. Warren has a slight advantage over Biden with them, but only slightly. It appears that the only real change in the race in that event would be to dampen the chances of anyone outside of that group. There is absolutely no evidence to support that either Warren or Bernie would gain all of the others supporters in any case, the number appears to be more like somewhere between a quarter and a third, with Biden gaining a nearly identical number. So, we can dismiss the consolidated vote theory.

[Doodley]

15. I didn't know that Warren and Sanders are the same candidate.

[crazytown]

17. Delegates are delegates:

both are comfortably above 15% and have been since July.

[Demsrule86]

21. Not in every state and as a winner emerges that could change.

[OldRed2450]

33. You are assuming Warren delegates would go to Bernie? Lol

Or vise versa?

[crazytown]

34. Actually I am not

I am saying that at this stage Biden does not have the votes to get 50+% of the delegates. A brokered convention is something to be avoided if possible - the losing supporters are 'not that happy'.

[OldRed2450]

36. You mean, NO ONE has 50%

[crazytown]

37. Yes

[emulatorloo]

18. Ok. Bookmarking n/t

[Happy Hoosier]

22. I'm leaning Warren, but....

My second choice is most definitely NOT Bernie Sanders.

[Demsrule86]

23. I see you combined Warren and Sanders...not how primaries work...Biden is still the front runner.

Seriously, not a good idea to do this.

[revmclaren]

26. Not a good look either. N/T

[quickesst]

27. new campaign slogan

Berren-Warnie 2020

[crazytown]

28. !

[quickesst]

30. Humor

[Blue_true]

31. The new math. nt

[gulliver]

32. Biden + Harris + Kobuchar + Booker + Castro + Buttigieg + Yang + 0.33 x Sanders is 54%

[floppyboo]

35. The progressive wing will win. Bloomberg's entry just proved it.

Sanders and Warren will work together to ensure a progressive win. It doesn't matter who.
It seriously is time to either end the divisiveness, or choose another party. And no one wants to see the progressives start a 3rd party. The kinder, gentler nation has always been told to swallow a little. Time for everyone else to buck up!
The final contenders in the primary will be Sanders and Warren.
Stop slamming them! Or loose to that Herr Turd again.
It seriously will come down to that.

[OldRed2450]

38. No it won't.

Warren has a lot of former Hillary supporters with her now. I promise you.. they are not going to Sanders unless he wins the nomination not before.

[floppyboo]

39. you are missing the point.

I am certainly not counting out a Warren win. Warren brought me to this site in 2012. That I prefer Sanders is neither here nor there. What I am saying is that, even if it is a brokered convention, you know damn well Sanders will throw his support to Warren. And you should maybe be just a little bit nicer, considering she owes her platform to him. And the centrists don't have a hope in hell, so
be best my friend

[UniteFightBack]

40. Good point. nt