Exclusive: Economist who backed Warren healthcare plan has doubts about her wealth tax

[George II]

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A leading economist who vouched for Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren’s healthcare reform plan told Reuters on Thursday he doubts its staggering cost can be fully covered alongside her other government programs.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, also voiced skepticism that the wealth tax provision in Warren’s plan - a key funding mechanism - will produce predicted levels of revenue because those targeted by the tax will seek to dodge it.

Yet Zandi warned the wealth tax revenue predictions may not hold up if she also simultaneously tries to fund her proposed expansion of government programs, including free child-care and student debt forgiveness.

Zandi said despite signing a highly touted letter last week backing the calculations for Warren’s Medicare for All plan, he does not support shifting Americans off the private health insurance they have in favor of a single-payer, government-run regime.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-election-warren-healthcare-exclusive-idUSKBN1XI01T

[Thekaspervote]

1. Certainly not helpful for EW.

[highplainsdem]

2. K&R

[Hoyt]

3. Sooner or later, she's going to have to come clean and tell us how much our taxes will increase.

While I think most people will recognize a tax increase for a better healthcare system is in our best interest, people are going to want to know roughly what it will cost them directly and indirectly.

Her standby -- "tax the wealthy and corporations" as the funding source -- won't play as well in the general election.

[melman]

4. Posted yesterday

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287340242

[George II]

5. Thank you for that.

[highplainsdem]

6. Thanks for posting this, George!! I hadn't seen the thread Gothmog posted yesterday, and this

is an important article!

[Cha]

8. And, it's posted again today!

[pat_k]

7. But it is very, very popular

Back in February the "baseline" support for wealth tax was over 70% across all regions.

The most popular argument against is "it won't fly" -- which may well turn into a tragic, self-fulfilling prophecy. Failure to embrace this popular measure will likely kill it.

Let's stop being chicken littles and stand up for what we believe in -- popular or not. Let our self-fulfilling prophecies be hope and meaningful change.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Wishing it would happen and the reality of where are as a nation ..just too far apart

When experienced politicians like Hillary Clinton and speaker Pelosi speak truth to it one should pay attention!

All the things sanders and EW are proposing just aren’t feasible at this point. Good ideas ...that will never become law

[pat_k]

16. Some thoughts on that in a

a response to a question about the meaning of Bill Clinton's quote

When people are insecure, they'd rather have somebody who is strong and wrong than someone who's weak and right," Clinton said.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=346200

[Gothmog]

13. Gov. John Lynch talks about how Medicare for All will harm New Hampshire's economy.

Link to tweet

[pat_k]

15. Fortunately, he's wrong.

1. Universal healthcare (which different than the incremental move to medicare for all managed through existing insurance system) is achievable with a reasonable, progressive tax system. Doing it on the "backs" of the middle class isn't what we should be fighting for.

2. When you've got a nation negotiating for the cost of procedures and pharmaceuticals as one -- the lions share of health cost compared to preventative medicine provided by a GP or other family doc -- costs are lowered.

3. With more people having access to preventative healthcare, fewer major illnesses manifest -- lowering costs.

4. Translating the cost of employee provided healthcare benefits to income is a boost. It enables business to hire more people and/or pay them more.

5. The "gig" or "contractor" economy has been driven by employer avoidance of healthcare costs. As recent data shows, this "new" economy isn't working to the benefit of workers. Without the burden of employer provided healthcare, that driver is eliminated.

[thesquanderer]

9. It's an interesting article, but there's a goofy quote...

“I’m skeptical the wealth tax will generate the same amount of revenue after considering all her plans together,” he said.

The amount of revenue a tax plan will collect is the same, regardless of what your spending plans are. Of course, it may be insufficient to cover all those plans, but the revenue collected doesn't change because of that. I hope the quote was inaccurate or missing full context, because by itself, it makes no logical sense.

Overall, though, there is a bright side to this for Warren. The guy basically says the numbers work even though he doesn't like the plan or Warren's plans in general. In a sense, that's more valuable than hearing "the numbers work" from someone who is actually in favor of the plan or supporting Warren... it reduces possible perception of bias in the conclusion.

Similarly, the concluding paragraph supports the numbers in the same way:

“The point of the letter was to show whether it is possible, rather than if it is desirable,” Stevenson said.

There really are two different arguments about MFA... whether it is desirable, and whether it is affordable. Her plan for how to pay for it only addresses the second, and it's worth considering that it's been found to be reasonable even by people who don't necessarily support the idea. Paul Krugman's recent column in the NY Times came at it from a similar perspective.

So maybe we can at least start to move away from talking about whether it's feasible, and focus on whether or not its desirable, dollars aside, which I think is the bigger conversation.

[George II]

10. I think the writer is mixing up a few things that Zandi said....

Here are some of the things he said, which seem to reinforce AND contradict each other:

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, also voiced skepticism that the wealth tax provision in Warren’s plan - a key funding mechanism - will produce predicted levels of revenue because those targeted by the tax will seek to dodge it.

“It’s not hard to believe billionaires are going to use every resource to avoid paying the tax,” Zandi said.

Taken in isolation, Zandi said, Warren would be able to find the revenue necessary to cover the massive cost of reform. “I stand by the funding estimates, as a standalone plan,” Zandi said.

Yet Zandi warned the wealth tax revenue predictions may not hold up if she also simultaneously tries to fund her proposed expansion of government programs, including free child-care and student debt forgiveness.

“I’m skeptical the wealth tax will generate the same amount of revenue after considering all her plans together,” he said.

It is confusing, but overall its a negative take on the plan(s)

[Gothmog]

12. From my twitter feed

Link to tweet

[PhoenixDem]

14. K&R n/t