Is Biden's 2020 run faltering?

[left-of-center2012]

Biden's presidential campaign has all the trappings of a winning run: An experienced, beloved politician with a tragically heroic backstory, Edward-Isaac Dovere describes in The Atlantic. But polls and fundraising totals are showing Biden isn't thriving the way he'd hope, and his staffers are reportedly struggling to claim otherwise.

Behind the scenes, Biden is "aware that there are issues with the campaign, especially as it relates to money," one staffer said. His Iowa organization is smaller than Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and even South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg's, and fundraising shortfalls have turned into cutbacks on TV and online ads. That fact has led some aides to "feel like they're just spinning one another in staff meetings about how well things are going," some tell The Atlantic — and even Biden himself is reportedly "realizing with dread that the race might be slipping away."

This is causing a predictable vicious circle, which threatens to turn into a death spiral: Not having enough organizers and ads has caused Biden’s poll numbers to drop, which has hurt fundraising, which has led to a cash shortage, which has led to anxious operatives in the early-primary states getting turned down when they ask for more resources.

What about the observation, registered both by other campaigns and by reporters, that Biden’s crowds are smaller and less exuberant than, say, Warren’s or Buttigieg’s? His team insists it’s choosing to have him appear in small venues in small towns mostly in the middle of workdays because that’s how they get to their voters; they say that polling in Iowa shows his strength is in rural areas, and that they expect to run up the score there.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/joe-biden-2020-frontrunner/601720/

[Gothmog]

1. Really?

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[Fiendish Thingy]

9. At this time in 2007, who was ahead?

In November 2007, Hillary was 19-28% ahead of Obama, depending on the poll, and McCain was in second place, 15 points behind...Rudy.

Inevitability narratives for the primaries are usually myths, and when they aren't, the nominee often goes on to lose in the general...

[Thekaspervote]

14. Well we should all just ignore the experts

@natesilver538

You'd think, if anything, the lesson "don't be dismissive of a candidate who maintains a polling lead for months with a working-class coalition despite constant predictions of his demise from Acela corridor elites" would have been *overlearned*. But, nope, same shit as last time.

[Amishman]

45. With our hyper energized state, it is very different now

Our base has been chomping at the bit for four years to replace the baffoon in the White House. Attention and engagement is way higher than a usual election cycle. I don't see a dramatic swing unless there is some sort of external event to force it.

[TidalWave46]

46. Apples and oranges. Not comparable. NT

[stopdiggin]

27. I guess we could have a principled debate

about the merits and depths, the timing and dates, the whys and the wherefores ... But it's late, I'm tired, and no matter what you'll have another poll or article for us tomorrow. Right?

[Gothmog]

35. Biden is doing fine according to Nate

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[George II]

2. Size isn't everything.

[emulatorloo]

3. Arizona. Michigan. Pennsylvania

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[Gothmog]

4. Nate disagrees

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[guillaumeb]

5. More US corporate media created controversy?

The US media loves controversy.

[LakeArenal]

6. Gosh. Did you also know he invades your personal space,

Is disqualified because didn’t control his grown son from taking a job and where he did absolutely nothing wrong. That he refuses reject his experience in the Obama administration. That an overcome speech problem makes him misspeak once in awhile
Oh, and he’s too old.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Oh for heavens sake!!! How many polls, how many endorsements does the front runner need?!

From 538
. So could Warren’s big crowds be picking up on something that the polls are missing?

The short answer is: No. While the ability to generate big crowds is certainly nice — it may signal enthusiasm among highly engaged voters or produce favorable media coverage — you should ignore any candidate, surrogate or media outlet that tells you that large crowd sizes mean that the polls are underestimating a candidate’s support. It’s just spin; polls are much more accurate at forecasting elections than crowd-size estimates, which don’t tell us all that much.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-let-crowd-sizes-mislead-you/

[thesquanderer]

8. re: "middle of workdays because that's how they get to their voters"

I thought his big draw was with the blue collar workers... they're available in the middle of workdays?

That said, any other candidate would gladly swap poll numbers with him.

[Tipperary]

10. Interesting read. nt

[pangaia]

11. Yup ! Absolutely. He's finished.. toast.. may as well quit now..........

Why prolong the agony??

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[MustLoveBeagles]

20. LOL

[pangaia]

24. Whew ! I have occasionally had a little teensie problem with some nice folks here

with

SARCASM !!!

[MustLoveBeagles]

40. The laughing emoji was big clue

I thought it was hilarious.

[TCJ70]

12. I wouldn't mind if it was. N/t

[highplainsdem]

13. LOL! I'd suggest trying to keep track of all the wrongheaded articles and opinion pieces

predicting the demise of Biden's campaign, but it would be nearly as difficult as keeping track of Trump's lies.

Someday someone is going to write a very entertaining book about the delusions in the media about President Biden during his winning campaign.

[George II]

15. Hillary Clinton was criticized for small crowds and "listening sessions", worked out okay for her.

[Hav]

18. I don't think this is a particularly bad writer

with no valid points but other stories from him point to a problem of having to produce quantity over substance to earn a living. It leads to the question whether journalists drive or follow a narrative:
- Is Biden too old?
- Will Joe Biden lose his lead?
- Joe Biden Is Schrödinger’s Candidate: The former vice president still appears to be the Democratic front-runner. So why does everyone say his campaign is doomed?

[Thekaspervote]

19. Great idea! Let's start bookmarking. I'll have to buy a new iPad with more gigs

[UniteFightBack]

16. If it is then I guess dumps plan worked to tarnish him. nt

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Yes.

[MustLoveBeagles]

21. No

I think he'll be okay.

[Demsrule86]

22. More Bullshit about Biden...completely factfree.

Seriously...all opinion mixed with old news...Biden is leading in all the polls and is doing fine with the money. I was looking at a graph of Warren...seriously looking like she is slipping in the polls.

[ismnotwasm]

23. No.

[peggysue2]

25. Did you watch Joe Biden's CNN Town Hall?

If you did, you would know the answer to the OP's headline query was clearly:

NO.

[CentralMass]

26. Based on the Bloomberg and Patrick entering the race trial ballons i would say somebody is worried.

[stopdiggin]

30. not sure I understand your comment

Who is/was worried? Are you saying influential party people are encouraging new entries? Due to concerns about Joe? Or Warren? (honest inquiry)

[emmaverybo]

32. Said rubbing its hands together and cackling.

[Demsrule86]

42. Yeah Trump is worried which is why he broke the law to get dirt on Biden...as for Bloomberg and

Patrick...presidential fever is strong...neither has a chance and won't hurt Biden at all. Patrick could hurt Sanders and or Warren but I doubt it.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Yes... why Bloomberg looks like he's in and Hillary is considering a third consecutive run.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ehrnst]

34. Where and when did HRC say she was considering a "third consecutive run?"

Last edited Tue Nov 12, 2019, 09:33 AM - Edit history (5)

She ran in 2008, but the only person that I heard even about talking about anybody primarying Obama in 2012 was Bernie Sanders - so when was this second "consecutive run," by HRC that you're talking about?



Also, it's possible you need to reconsider which sources that you trust are credible and which aren't:

In recent weeks, as Clinton has made the rounds to promote a new book, the rumors have come fast and furious from the GOP: She's running for president again.

Stephen Bannon, the former adviser to President Trump, was one of the first to promote the idea of another Clinton run.

“She is running,” Bannon said on Fox Business earlier this month. “She's just trying to decide how to fit her way in.”

The whisper campaign, potentially setting up a rematch between Trump and Clinton, has been going strong ever since.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/467021-clinton-2020-whisper-campaign-hits-new-heights

“Is Hillary Clinton secretly planning to run in 2020?” writer Michael Goodwin wondered in the conservative New York Post.

“Hillary Clinton is up to something,” Goodwin wrote in July. “Five times in the last month alone, she sent emails touting her super PAC’s role in combating President Trump.”

The narrative even made its way onto the Drudge Report with a banner headline on Tuesday. “Dem Halloween: Hillary Leaves Door Open.” (The accompanying photo showed Clinton in a witch hat.)

The headline linked to a story in the right-wing American Mirror that said Clinton had not endorsed any of the Democratic candidates and “essentially described herself as the ideal candidate to take on Trump in 2020.”

Do you think that HRC is being dishonest about this, and FoxNews, Bannon and RW talking points are more trustworthy?

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[aeromanKC]

29. No

The Trump deplorable MAGAt's are trying to bring down who they believe is the strongest candidate and the Media just wants conflict.

[Demsrule86]

37. Some are desperate to find a way to split the moderate progressive vote...

They can't win otherwise. Of coursing winning a primary isn't the real point but many of them forget about the general and how important it is to field a candidate who can win a general.

[SharonClark]

31. Of course not.

He leads in most polls and no one has voted yet. BTW, I’m not in the Biden camp.

[UncleNoel]

33. The MSM just can't get the Biden failing meme out of thir minds.

He is ahead in the National Polls. He is leading in most of the primary states. Now he is on top in Iowa and just hit the ball out of the park there at the CNN Town Hall. As for the money angle, I received an email from the campaign that October was the largest amount of donations since the campaign began. Te MSM is woefully out of date, out of touch, out of their minds.

Ridin' with Biden.

[Gothmog]

36. Biden campaign rolls out a raft of 133 foreign policy expert endorsements

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[MustLoveBeagles]

41. Well dang it, don't all these people know he's finished?

[myohmy2]

38. it's a shame...

...Joe's having such a hard time,

"This isn’t the race Biden wanted to run. He didn’t want to apologize to Anita Hill. He didn’t want to change his position on the Hyde Amendment. He didn’t want to call the president names, as he did last week on 60 Minutes (“He’s an idiot”). He definitely didn’t want to have a super PAC. He dislikes ripping into other Democrats, to the point of convincing himself he isn’t. “I’ve never, ever run a negative campaign,” he said last weekend, shortly after hammering Warren for being “condescending” and “representative of an elitism that working and middle-class people do not share.”

“Yes, this is not the way he would have written it, but he also wouldn’t have predicted that Donald Trump is using the entire apparatus of American foreign policy to drum up false charges against Joe Biden,” said Anita Dunn, the former Obama communications director and longtime Biden friend who’s been advising him from the start of the campaign. "

...I would have expected things would have gone better for Joe...

...oh well, we've still got Bernie...

[Demsrule86]

43. Bernie is losing to Joe by 10 or 20 points in every poll...I would have though things would have

gone better for Bernie...oh well we've still got Joe.

[LanternWaste]

47. Biden is faltering and Sanders is great. Hence, BS doing so poorly in polls and Biden in 1st place

"I would have expected things to go better for BS..."

[OhZone]

39. Nope

[Gothmog]

44. Joe Biden Can't Get Any Respect

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But a funny thing happened amid all the establishment angst. The latest round of early-state polls shows Biden ahead in three of the four states: New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Biden is building momentum (and a double-digit lead) in Nevada, benefiting from a progressive split in New Hampshire, and thoroughly dominating in his firewall of South Carolina. His weakest state is Iowa, but a new Monmouth poll showed him in second place and within the margin of error of the lead. Even his worst polls in the state place him squarely within a front-running four-candidate pack.

If anyone needs to be worried about alarming trend lines, it’s Elizabeth Warren. Her tortured explanation for how she’d pay for a government-run health care system was widely panned by the press. A reputable battery of battleground state polls underscores that she’s the least electable contender and threatens to jeopardize the Democrats’ hard-won gains in the suburbs. And a revived Bernie Sanders, boosted by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement and rallies on his behalf, is cutting into Warren’s support. Her national and early-state polling has dipped a bit in the last few weeks as she’s faced scrutiny for the first time in a while.

Meanwhile, Biden turned in one of his strongest campaign performances Monday night in Iowa at a nationally televised town hall. He showed command of the issues, displayed empathy when discussing his own personal tragedy, and deftly hit Warren over her unrealistic policies and elitist attitude. If Pete Buttigieg became a media sensation following his own CNN town hall earlier this year, Biden may find his own improved showing will revive his fortunes....

And on Super Tuesday, the demographic makeup of states clearly plays to Biden’s advantage. Six of the 14 state contests take place in the South, where Biden can expect significant African-American support. Two others, Oklahoma and Utah, are taking place in conservative states where Biden’s pragmatism should play well. As long as Biden doesn’t collapse in the early stage of the race, he’s very well positioned to build upon his successes.

[Gothmog]

48. This makes me smile

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[Gothmog]

49. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

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