Odds makers: 14 to 1 chance Hillary will be 2020 Dem candidate

[Apollo Zeus]

There is a saying in stock trading that goes 'you know nothing about a stock until you own some.' A similar idea exists in polling science -- you can get unreliable answers by asking people about something they have no vested interest in.

OTOH, people who put money at risk come up with very different rankings. The question is different so the answer is different. The question for gamblers is not 'who would you support/prefer?' but rather 'who do expect to win?'

Warren (pays) 7/4
Biden 10/3
Buttigieg 9/2
Sanders 6/1
Bloomberg 8/1
Hillary 14/1

Bettors believe that Hillary is about three times more likely to receive the DNC’s nod than Klobuchar (50/1), Gabbard (50/1) or Harris (40/1)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. Understandable, given the speculation Hillary is considering a 2020 bid, and she & her confidantes

refuse to shut the door on a third consecutive run. Joe no doubt hopes she doesn't run, or his third run is over day one she enters the race.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[LanternWaste]

2. "I'm not running," she said, "but I'm going to keep working on and speaking and standing up for what

“I’m not running,” she said, “but I’m going to keep working on and speaking and standing up for what I believe.”

But I get it... many BS supporters seem to require the presence of Clinton as a foil to maintain the pretense of Sanders' continued viability as a first-string candidate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. LMFAO!! Good try!! I'm not saying Hillary WILL run... I put the odds at 50-50 she will.

Obviously, a shitload of people agree it's not only possible, but PROBABLE given the 14-1 odds on her winning the nomination. That you feel the need to drag Bernie and his supporters into the conversation shows YOU don't even believe what you're saying.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[TwilightZone]

17. "people agree "

Nope. One betting site is not "a shitload of people". Logical fallacy.

[LanternWaste]

24. You're arguments are specious. You fail to provide any evidence she will run...

You fail to provide any evidence she will run, yet place the odds at even she will. Reading tea-leaves and chicken entrails ain't political analysis... it's simply specious, faith-based prophecy.


"You don't obviously believe what you're saying" indeed.

[TwilightZone]

3. False.

She has been quite clear that she is not running. Doesn't stop people from feigning ignorance, however.

[Apollo Zeus]

21. "not running" (now) is not the same as "won't run" (ever)

Hillary has not ruled it out (BBC: 11/12/19):

Pressed on whether she would throw her hat into the ring at the last minute, Mrs Clinton said: "I, as I say, never, never, never say never."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50399230

[LanternWaste]

22. And "zero objective evidence she will run" is not the same as "not running (now)"

[StevieM]

4. As I have told you before, Hillary is not running, nor has she ever considered running in 2020.

She has repeatedly said that she is not running. Every single time she has been asked she has said no.

She has shut the door repeatedly, but the media will never stop claiming that she is still thinking about it. The like beating up on her and labeling her as obsessed with power. This is what our country did the first time a woman got anywhere near the White House.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. Saying one IS not running-obviously she's not NOW running- isn't the same as saying they WON'T run.

Not only won't Hillary say she won't be running, her long-time allies, spokespersons, and advisors won't close the door on a third Hillary run either... they keep hinting it's a distinct possibility.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[StevieM]

7. She has been asked multiple times if she will run and has said no every single time.

Not once did she say she was thinking about it. Not once did she fail to say that she won't run.

Her spokesman never said that she was thinking it over. It is true that old friends and staffers have not closed the door, when they were asked, but that is because it isn't their place to do that. They don't have the right, or the ability, to say whether someone is or is not running.

It is not a distinct possibility and nobody, other than HRC's critics, is hinting that it is. She won't be running.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. Not true, Hillary admitted again on BBC what we all know: "As I say, never never never say never"

when asked directly if she is saying she wouldn't run again for President in 2020. "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it." That sure doesn't sound like a "No, I will not run again for President in 2020," EXACTLY as I've been saying.

For people to deny what is so obviously apparent, that Hillary has NOT closed the door on a third consecutive run for president - as her spokespeople and advisors have also stated - is kind of amusing. I know that wouldn't be good for Joe, but that's no reason to ignore at least the possibility that Hillary will run... I give it a 50-50 chance.

But, go ahead, deny it some more.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[StevieM]

11. OK, I will go ahead and deny it some more. I would put the chances at 0/100.

I just watched the BBC interview and I saw the exact opposite of what you just described. I saw a person who made it clear that she wasn't running.

This is so silly. The filing deadline in some places has already passed. She isn't running.

There are only four people who realistically can be our next nominee: Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. I would be shocked if the candidate was anybody other than one of those four.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. Not saying you're wrong... perhaps, a case where reasonable minds can differ?

Just think there's a CHANCE Hillary WILL run, based on what she herself is saying. I'll say this, if Hillary doesn't declare by year's end, THEN the chance of her running diminishes close to zero, as you say.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[StevieM]

15. OK, I'll ease up on you.

You do seem like a friendly person.

I should point out that the deadline to file in California is November 26. Do you really think she will skip California and still run?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. Thanks for that! And yes, it surely would make it much harder for Hillary to win...

She would have to rely far more on winning via a brokered convention, which would not be a good outcome for the Democratic Party. So, if Hillary is considering another run, she should NOT skip the California primary, and should declare soon.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[StevieM]

18. I think a brokered convention is much more likely than HRC running.

The brokered convention scenario is easy to imagine: Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders all stay in through the end of the primaries, while crossing the 15 percent threshold in most states.

If that were to happen then I assume that one of them is still most likely to be the ultimate nominee. If by some chance the nomination went somebody else, I assume it would go to someone who everyone could get behind, like Sally Yates. I can't even imagine HRC throwing her hat into the ring under those circumstances.

I think it is impossible to imagine any late-entering candidate joining the race after it is too late to compete in the California primary.

In the end, I don't believe there will be a brokered convention either. Chances are one of the 4 main candidates will pull away from the pack and secure the nomination.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

19. I hope you're right about that regarding Hillary... were she to participate in a brokered convention

though doubtful she would come out of it victorious, it could lead to difficulties down the road in the general election for the ultimate winner.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[StevieM]

20. I just don't know what the difficulties would be.

She is not going to be anything other than supportive of the eventual nominee, just like she completely supported Barack Obama in 2008. And people made the same comments in that election. They said she would try to sabotage him.

Instead she did more to help him than any other candidate has ever done for their former primary opponent. And that was back when she could have done some damage, based on the strong base that she had. Today, here in the second McCarthy Era, she is a thoroughly swift boated politician, so she couldn't really cause problems even if she wanted to. But she wouldn't want to--that is not who Hillary is.

I think it is unfortunate that the first time a woman got anywhere near the White House we heard all the classic stereotypes of the ambitious, power-hungry woman, who will step on anyone to get ahead. I don't think she deserved that.

[LanternWaste]

23. What evidence or objective data leads you to think there's a 50/50 of her running?

But, go ahead, rationalize the irrational some more...."

And there's the back of t-shirt.

[mathematic]

8. Selling bad bets to dumb people is how pro gamblers make money

There are plenty of people dumb and paranoid enough to take 14 to 1 odds of hillary running. I bet some of them even think Comet Pizza has a basement.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Hillary herself has left the door open, just today, for a possible 3rd run for Prez.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[scheming daemons]

12. Gabbard at 50/1 is too high. It is closer to 50,000/1

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. I'd take the 50,000/1 odds for $20... care to put up the million bucks?! haha!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Joe941]

25. No, because I don't want you or anyone else voting for her!