There's a new sheriff in Iowa and his name is Pete Buttigieg - MP 22% JB 19% EW 18% BS 13%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Four candidates are currently vying for the top spot in Iowa’s caucuses – Buttigieg (22%), Biden (19%), Warren (18%), and Sanders (13%). Compared to Monmouth’s August poll, Buttigieg has gained 14 points (up from 8%) and Sanders has gained 5 points (up from 8%), while Biden has lost 7 points (down from 26%), and Warren’s standing has changed by only 2 points (20% previously).

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_111219/


Oh, monmouth is A + rated at 538

[Tiggeroshii]

1. WOWWW!

He isn't my candidate, but I'd be stoked if he was able to pull it off.

[Skya Rhen]

2. Wow - Warren is no longer the front runner...

[ritapria]

3. Congrats to Pete Supporters

At least Bernie is up 5% from their last poll

[brooklynite]

4. Combine the polling with the group operation in place, and.....

[Mike Nelson]

5. Interesting...

... I think any of the top four could win...

[Celerity]

6. woot, but this might be an outlier, need to see more like this, still, great to see!

[boomer_wv]

10. Given...

The numbers in recent Iowa polls, this number isnt an outlier.

The order may be different, but none of the numbers are out of the range where they could have been expected to fall. Top 4 in Iowa are tightly grouped atm. Any of them could win or finish 4th

[customerserviceguy]

42. And it might be an outlier

but I'm taking it as proof that Pete Buttigieg is no longer far behind Biden, Warren and Sanders.

As I've said before, by the time of the SC primary, I'm going to vote for either Biden or Buttigieg, whoever looks the most viable between them nationally, without regard to how they look on the statewide level.

[Peacetrain]

7. This is HUGE!!! as an Iowan... this is HUGE!! we are only 82 days from caucus!

If nothing bad happens.. he takes the lead in the Iowa Caucus.... But remember we give out shares... winning the Iowa Caucus, does not mean you take all the delegates.. but he has been kicking butt here..

[Tiggeroshii]

9. It'll be a big deal if he wins, but I think some of the police scandal at home will hurt him in SC

and the South...

[TidalWave46]

29. What political scandal? NT

[Tiggeroshii]

38. Police* scandal

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/us/politics/buttigieg-police-black-community.html

[TidalWave46]

45. Such a scandal that you pulled an article from June?

Must be Sanders new closest competition in the early states.

[Tiggeroshii]

46. ?

Its police misconduct that he turned a blind eye to. Southern blacks might not be so dismissive come the SC primaries.

[TidalWave46]

47. You clearly haven't read up on the "scandal" you are promoting.

Such a "scandal" that we are going back to June for an article. Try reading before falling for political hit jobs.

"Scandal?" It's not like the guy has written rape essays or ran a campaign wrought with sexual harassment. Yet I don't call those scandals.

Too funny that you call it a "scandal."

[Tiggeroshii]

48. That article from June covers 6 years of his relationship with police and the black community

Here is one from August. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-south-bend-police.html


These come every few months when his rise warrants their relevance.

[TidalWave46]

49. Not August. This "scandal" is hot and heavy. Too funny.

Such a "scandal" that it is rarely discussed here. It was hot and heavy for a bit but those who are well thought out realized it was a political hit job. I do still see Sanders supporter pushing it every now and then.

[Tiggeroshii]

50. The article is from 8/30

Well it is what it is. We will see if you are right

[peggysue2]

8. Interesting flip in those numbers

We'll soon know who takes the first prize.

[BeyondGeography]

11. "Less than 3-in-10 likely caucusgoers (28%) are firmly decided on their candidate choice."

Iowa is doing what it does. The DMR poll the week before the caucus is when the "sheriff" tends to be identified.

John Kerry polling at 7 percent one month before the 2004 caucus:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-dean-pulls-away-in-dem-race/

He gained 30 points in the last month.

[Gothmog]

27. From Nate Silver

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

28. Nate talking down Warren?

No!

[left-of-center2012]

12. Expect attacks on Pete to increase

The wannabees have to take down those on top.

[Demsrule86]

13. Honestly, I don't think Iowa matters that much but after Iowa...where does Pete go? He won't

win the rust belt or the south. He is not going to be the nominee IMHO. He can act as spoiler though...which is fine with me.

[Qutzupalotl]

20. I remember Obama rocked the world by winning Iowa.

Kerry too — there was almost no talk of my guy (Clark) after that, though he tied for third.

To your question, I don’t know where Pete would win after Iowa; it’s almost impossible to see from here. If the media does what it has done in recent past — basically crown the Iowa winner as the front runner — it is likely to change the game, and we might see wins in unexpected places.

[StevieM]

35. The most recent poll has him making progress in New Hampshire.

And half of that poll was taken before his recent NH bus tour.

If he wins Iowa then he might take second in New Hampshire. That would solidify him as a finalist and then he could win Nevada.

[Demsrule86]

40. No one should be crowned with a small white caucus state...but Pete is smart but I

don't believe he has enough experience. Obama was a rock star. I don't see Pete as one yet...there is potential. Perhaps this will give him some name recognition and he can run for the house or senate...he may have to move though.

[left-of-center2012]

36. Quinnipiac Monday, November 11

Quinnipiac Monday, November 11

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

Biden 20
Warren 16
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 14

Gabbard 6, Yang 4, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 3, Harris 1, Booker 1, Bennet 1, Castro 1, Sestak 0

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

[Demsrule86]

41. Biden may very well win Iowa and New Hampshire or be so close it won't matter. While

Biden doesn't have to win either state IMHO, but I really think Warren will be out if she doesn't win Iowa and/or New Hampshire. People are getting queasy about electability...and this would show real weakness after the effort she has put into Iowa. Also, she is surely going to lose North Carolina and Nevada This would be devastating for her campaign. Sander would be hurt too but to a lesser degree. And I don't believe he take the nomination anyway...oh sure he will have some delegates and show up at the convention trying to get it brokered but it won't happen.

[JCMach1]

44. Not too radical Veep possibility

With some delegates in tow

[Lexblues]

14. M4A is hurting Warren

Her polling has leveled off or dropped since the last debate. Medicare for All will be the one thing stopping her from getting the nomination.

[emmaverybo]

17. It, M4All, is the one thing she has made the center-piece of her candidacy. I believe, however, it

won’t prove all that will hold her back from getting the nomination. Both Bernie and Warren occupy a minority position on the political spectrum within the party at large. Their attitude says different. That attitude, for one, is a problem. Joe Biden will be a problem for them. He is now. And he discussed the attitude problem last night. Supporters can protest, but vocal as they are, they also do not represent the moderate and left of center majority.

[BannonsLiver]

33. On a personal note, I can confirm this

It's not the idea of m4a that is the problem with me, or the fact she is so passionate about it. i like both a lot. My fear lies with an American public that doesn't do nuance at all, has shown itself to be easily manipulated by GOP messaging in past elections and is generally fearful of comprehensive change. I have concerns about ANY of our candidates being able to sell that to the people, while also fending off a hail of GOP attacks, during an election.

[LakeArenal]

15. I'm happy for Pete. Hope he does well.

Of those four. He’s my 2nd hands down.

[The Valley Below]

16. I'm glad to see rising stars like Pete Buttigieg emerge.

He is very impressive. Bodes well for the future of the party.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

18. Welcome to DU, The Valley Below!

I truly agree with your post. What Pete Buttigieg is doing bodes well for the party, and for the country as a whole.

I have met him and he is the real thing.

[The Valley Below]

21. Hello, fellow Golden Stater.

Every time I hear Pete Buttigieg speak, I'm very impressed. Never had the pleasure of meeting him.

Pleased to "meet" you. Go Democrats!!!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

22. I've been on his side since I first heard him back in March.

It was a town hall hosted by CNN. I was hooked!

Pleased to meet you too. I'm in SoCal, not far from Los Angeles.

Definitely Go Democrats!

[The Valley Below]

23. We might be neighbors.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

24. If you don't want to say where you're located, I understand!

I'll send you a private message and then you'll be safe.

[Celerity]

25. same for me! SoCal and it was that March town at SXSW in Austin (here is the video)

Instantly knew he was a special candidate.

Pete Buttigieg Democratic Primary Town Hall #1 - March 10 2019 on CNN

[BootinUp]

19. Well...

I TOLD YA SO!

[Gothmog]

26. Here is Nate's initial reaction

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

30. Betting odds have him pulling ahead in IA too

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

[pertello]

31. Pete Veteran's Day Speech

Go to minute 38...thoughtful, reflective, detailed, brilliant!

[IADEMO2004]

32. Is this why my phone is quiet today? Not a single ring. Stunned campaigns? nt

[scheming daemons]

34. Wedding herself to M4A was a critical campaign mistake by Warren

It killed all her momentum.

And it is a loser, electorally.

[Gothmog]

37. Joe moves up

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

39. I like Pete. I think he has a great future. But IMO voters will be considering electability

when they finally vote, and unless somehow national polls asking about electability show Pete overtaking Joe (and so far Pete isn't doing at all well in polls asking people about electability), most of his supporters will vote for Joe.

[customerserviceguy]

43. I'm sure that at this stage in the game

Barack Obama didn't look terribly electable, either.

I like Joe Biden, and he's probably got what it takes to beat Trump in the blue-wall states that we lost last time. But, his campaign is in somewhat of a tailspin, and I don't think that the impeachment procedings will help much, the Republicons are going to use the name "Hunter Biden" at every opportunity they have to comment on the impeachment.

Joe may be able to pull out of it, but I don't see where he gets any help from anyone on this. If President Obama were to say something good about him, that might be a place to get some footing, but until that happens, I expect some more sliding.

[emmaverybo]

51. Disagree about impeachment proceedings not helping. When not only the specific impeachable offenses

are laid out, but their significance for national and international security, you understand this, this was all to undermine the man Trump considered his chief rival.

I think two things happen: the public sees Biden as a BFD, and Hunter’s ethical lapse is overshadowed by the magnitude of Trump’s crimes, his extraordinary effort to smear father and son. Only Republicans could take away that Hunter is dirty, and Biden through association.