26.0% Biden's RCP Average at an all time low.

[crazytown]

Although Biden has been down in the 26-27% range before, 26.0% is his his absolute lowest number since July 6, in the aftermath of his disastrous June debate performance, the lowest since RCP has been averaging his polls Before the July debate he had been averaging 33-35%, since then he has been numbers have been in holding pattern, struggling to break 30%. There have been no sign of a resurgence on the national level.

Warren broke through 15% after the July debate and has stayed there. She has stabilized for the moment at 20% suggesting that the damage has been contained after her obfuscation of the costs of Medicare for All in the October debate. The release of her funding package has neither helped nor hindered.

Buttigieg who established a solid floor at around 5% is back up to 8%. Harris has not recovered from Gabbard's hit in the August debate and remains around 5% (5.3%). Sanders has a rock solid base at 15% and higher.

The outlook remains the same - a brokered convention. Biden at 26% has nowhere near the support he needs to win a majority of delegates, and has not since July. Warren and Sanders have 38.6% between them nationally, which although, national numbers do not translate into State delegates, are a pretty fair indication. Biden can't count on others leaving the race. Buttigieg is not going anywhere, and the majority of Harris' supports may go to Warren. He may do better with the undecided.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Demsrule86]

1. How about a link? I looked for this and didn't find...it saw current polls but they did not support

the OP.

[Demsrule86]

2. Never mind I found the most recent one...

[Demsrule86]

3. Here is what I found...

Seriously? And You gov is a paid poll too. I think Joe will be just fine...

[ritapria]

4. Economist/YouGuv is a crap poll

[thesquanderer]

14. B- rating, so above average.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Demsrule86]

15. They have a pool of paid consultants that they choose from...sorry...meaningless...

Also, not only four polls in this RCP average.

[thesquanderer]

20. 538 rating takes many factors into account... a B- poll is still not a bad one, regardless of...

...whatever criticisms one might have about this one or that.

[Demsrule86]

43. I don't agree and believe that this poll depends on who they are paying...IE their sample

[Celerity]

23. lol, 'paid conultants', you really are getting creative with your non-stop tosh. You are a

non-stop spin machine, relentless in attacking anything you do not like the results of, facts or context be damned, and so often framed in questionable and/or antagonistic ways. You always try to subtly (or bluntly, depending on the occasion) insert doubt and diminution into the conversation, OR, if it is your stance being promoted/aided, move to a unwavering and aggressive appeal to authority posture that is utterly dismissive of all other opposing viewpoints. Plus, when things do break to your satisfaction, even if coming from similar input/out systems, methodologies or sourcing, you are a relentless pusher of those outcomes.

Complete and profound bias, reduced to the point of making so many of your posts

sorry...meaningless...

It really is not an effective modus operandi with which to engage in rational discussions and colloquies on an online board, and reflects poorly upon your candidate of choice, IMHO.


Finally......

in regards to this poll and your 'issues' with it, I will simply re-post my previous reply when you attempted (one of hundreds of similar actions throughout a multiplicity of subjects and threads) the same plazzy false-framing on yet another thread:


Every online poll works off of a large sample, a pre-determined group, and so many (such as the 'beloved by Biden folks' HarrisX) offer a small incentive for replying. YouGov has a sample base of more than 10,000 off of which they use highly sophisticated weighting mechanisms to drill down and get an accurate sample.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/upshot/online-polls-analyzing-reliability.html

snip

The online samples that fared well raise some concerns about the other online pollsters, if only by implication. YouGov, for instance, consistently fared best in the Pew test in part by using a distinctively sophisticated method of sample selection, called synthetic sampling. YouGov selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans and thus match the country’s demographics as a whole.

snip

Those that did had decent but not exceptional results. On average, online polls had an error of 5.3 percentage points in 2018 — a tally very close to their average error in 2016 and 2017, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

YouGov, it should be noted, posted an impressive 2.5-point average error in its final 2018 polls; no other online-only firm had an average error beneath five points.

[Bradshaw3]

30. Spot on in every respect and a total beatdown

It is so refreshing to see facts, solid links, and reason being used to counteract the opposite tactics (which we usually associate with RWers) on here.

And these tactics, which are so frequently employed by supporters of one candidate here, do as you write reflect poorly on their choice. If someone's candidate is as great as they claim over and over, then tactics such as swarming anyone who dares to offer even fact-based and well-reasoned criticisms by using one-line putdowns and ad hominem attacks, leaves them with no credibility.

[ritapria]

32. The You/Guv final Poll during UK General Election of 2017 was ..

Conservatives 42% Labour 35% v. Actual Result : Conservatives 43.5% Labour 41% ………...Stinko

[Celerity]

22. not at all, in 2018 it was the best online poll (lowest average error rate)

YouGov has a sample base of more than 10,000 off which they use highly sophisticated weighting mechanisms to get an accurate sample.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/upshot/online-polls-analyzing-reliability.html

snip

The online samples that fared well raise some concerns about the other online pollsters, if only by implication. YouGov, for instance, consistently fared best in the Pew test in part by using a distinctively sophisticated method of sample selection, called synthetic sampling. YouGov selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans and thus match the country’s demographics as a whole.

snip

Those that did had decent but not exceptional results. On average, online polls had an error of 5.3 percentage points in 2018 — a tally very close to their average error in 2016 and 2017, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

YouGov, it should be noted, posted an impressive 2.5-point average error in its final 2018 polls; no other online-only firm had an average error beneath five points.

[emulatorloo]

5. I didn't see a "disastrous June debate performance" from Biden

On the other hand another candidate had to go back to the drawing board and come up with real numbers because that candidate couldn’t answer questions in the debate.

Those candidates are both on my shortlist.

[Thekaspervote]

9. +1000

[crazytown]

11. Biden's performance was "disastrous" as far the the polls were concerned.

If you look at the RCP polls, his support fell off a cliff. As for my personal opinion, no, other than Harris' pre-prepared ambush, I thought he did quite well - but I have learned to not trust my impressions.

[BannonsLiver]

13. That's probably a good call.

[Demsrule86]

16. He is up 10 and 11 polls in two out of the four polls and ties in the other one...I think we will be

just fine...those are the polls used in the OP. I did post them...there are four...just four.

[George II]

6. All three of the highest polling candidates are down from a week ago.

Biden: 28.6 to 26.0, -2.6
Warren: 21.4 to 20.8, -0.6
Sanders: 18.1 to 17.8, -0.3

Things will be fluctuating day to day until February.

[Thekaspervote]

8. +1000

[Thekaspervote]

7. That may be but he is still the front runner with a 5.2 lead over the rest of the field

EW has slipped and can’t seem to turn that around. Whereas Biden has either added to his lead or retaken the lead in many of the polls

[boomer_wv]

10. So.....

Biden at his lowest is still higher than everyone else?

[tblue37]

12. I would be happy with either Biden or Warren. nt

[Demsrule86]

17. I want to win period...vote blue no matter who always.

[tblue37]

21. Of course, but I think those 2 are our best chance to win. I like other candidates, too. nt

[MineralMan]

18. And yet, all the others have lower poll results, neh?

Thus it has been from the very beginning and thus it continues to be.

An enviable position, it seems to me.

[Demsrule86]

19. And I posted the chart for this Graph...he is ahead in two of the 4 polls by double digits and

tied it one...only the paid participant you Gov survey has Warren ahead. And there are only four polls...maybe because of the Veterans Day holiday.

[LongtimeAZDem]

24. And less than a week later:

[crazytown]

26. And two weeks earlier - 30

followed by 26, them back to 30 - it's a recurring pattern depending on the polls in RCP average.

[Gothmog]

27. Biden is up 12.7 freaking points in the RCP average and up 8 points in the new YouGov poll

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

45. Happy Birthday Vice President Biden.

You are the best we have to take down Trump.

[customerserviceguy]

28. He's going to need a good debate performance tonight

I wonder if the moderators will mention Ukraine.

[Gothmog]

29. @JoeBiden Surges 7 Pts in One Week According to the new @TheEconomist Poll

Link to tweet

[peggysue2]

31. Hummmm

And yet the spread today is +12.7 for Joe. So . . .

Methinks the tides have turned. At least for the moment.

[Gothmog]

33. 🚨 According to the updated @RealClearNews average, @JoeBiden now leads the field by 12.7%.

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

34. Joe Biden is in a stronger position today than when he announced

Link to tweet

[crazytown]

35. Nonsense

[TidalWave46]

37. What's nonsense? Seems pretty accurate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[crazytown]

38. How often does it have to be said, Biden needs a majority of delegates

to win the nomination - not a plurality, a majority?

[Gothmog]

39. The 15% rule will let Biden run up the delegate count

There will be a number of states in the south where no candidate other Joe Biden will break the 15% threshold to get delegates
I like Nate's analysis

Link to tweet

[crazytown]

41. Not so.

It's 15% per district, not State.

[Gothmog]

46. Again, I was a delegate to the national convention

In Texas there are two pools of delegates with only a portion allocated to the districts. Over half of the delegates in Texas were allocated on the statewide vote.

[crazytown]

50. We are doing a hell of a lot of speculation on the eve of the debate

If Warren cannot hold her own, it is not the end of the world for me.

And yes - I know you were a delegate. I remember how you said Sanders' supporters treated you daughter

[Gothmog]

51. All three of my kids are mad at me for supporting Biden and not Warren

My middle child got me to make a donation to Warren a while back. Two of her classmates are maxed out donors for Warren. My youngest child (the one who attended the National Convention with me) likes both Warren and Mayor Pete.

My kids are not happy that I am a maxed out Biden donor. They are amused that I have met Biden at a fund raiser and have both pictures with Joe and three national convention floor signs signed by Joe.

Again, I will support the nominee of the party. Time will tell who will be the nominee but I like Joe's chances.

[boomer_wv]

53. Also...

It is very unlikely that a person getting fewer than 15% of the statewide vote is going to beat that number in very many districts and even in those the delegates will likely be dominated by the winner.

It is also highly unlikely that we see a contested convention. They are unicorns in modern politics.

[Demsrule86]

49. Warren is down 4 points and it is not inconceivable she get few or maybe no delegates in

the South and in the Mid West. If Sanders and Warren wish to not dilute their vote, one of them should drop out...this is not a tag team event but a primary.

[TidalWave46]

40. And how does showing the possibility of having more voters....

equal "nonsense" to you. That is the manner in which you replied to a post highlighting what seems to be the truth and directly about the possibility of additional support. Looks to me like the nonsense is somehow thinking voters won't help aid in getting additional delegates. Again, the cornerstone of the post your replied to.

[crazytown]

42. When Biden announced, beating Sanders was enough.

Now it is not. Ergo - Biden is not in a better position today than he was when he announced.

[TidalWave46]

44. That's nonsense.

Bidens Announcement video.

[crazytown]

48. It is, as Bill Clinton would say Arithmetic

Both Warren and Sanders have been 15%+ since the June Debate. He has to beat both their delegates together. In April, no candidate other than Sanders was near the 15% mark, so Biden only had to best him. Arithmetic.

[TidalWave46]

55. Sounds like Bernie math. NT

[crazytown]

56. How so?

[emmaverybo]

54. Terrific! Really fine speaker and his the best launch message.

[Gothmog]

47. 'No schadenfreude will be had': Biden coasts as opponents face firing squad

Link to tweet

“He’s been the center of attention, the center of a firing squad,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a top Biden campaign surrogate elected in 2010 to his old Senate seat. “I think the dynamic of the campaign has changed. There are more vigorous questions being posed about the policy positions of other candidates or about [their] background and record.

“No schadenfreude will be had,” Coons added, now that candidates other than Biden are drawing heat.

A Biden adviser pointed out that the former vice president has stemmed his slide in national polls. At the same time a pro-Biden super PAC is set to drop ads in Iowa and other early states. Biden received another boost during Tuesday’s impeachment hearings when a Republican-called witness, Ambassador Kurt Volker, dismissed Trump’s claims of corruption against Biden as “conspiracy theory.”

“We’ve had all the dirt and all the oppo thrown at us and we’re still standing,” said the adviser, explaining the campaign’s mindset on the eve of the debate.

[Peacetrain]

52. Cannot argue with the mood of the country...

Biden has this.. Can't add Sanders and Warren together. Does not work that way.

[TidalWave46]

36. That's pretty solid. NT