Des Moines Register: Likely caucusgoers in Iowa say Joe Biden is most likely to beat Trump

[highplainsdem]

I posted yesterday about the Register's Iowa poll showing Pete Buttigieg with 25% support, and Warren, Biden and Sanders in a three-way tie for second place.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287348115

But there was another finding from that poll that deserves a lot of attention, and since the Register gave it a separate article, it deserves a separate OP here.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/iowa-poll-joe-biden-support-drops-but-caucusgoers-say-hes-most-likely-to-beat-trump/4197394002/

Fifteen percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Biden as their first choice for president in the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. That’s down 5 percentage points from Biden’s performance in the most recent Iowa Poll in September and shows a steady decline from his high in December 2018, when 32% named Biden as their first choice.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg jumps into the lead for the first time, with 25% of respondents naming him as their first choice. U.S. Sen Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts sits in second place with 16% support, while Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont tie at 15%. No other candidate reaches double digits.

The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 8-13 by Selzer & Co. and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Biden leads the field on the question of whether poll respondents believe a candidate will beat Trump. Fifty-two percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they are almost certain or fairly confident that Biden will beat Trump, compared to 43% who say they are not very confident he can win or are almost certain that he will lose. He’s the only candidate for whom a majority of respondents are confident he’ll beat Trump.

Biden’s supporters are even more confident in him: 57% of respondents who back the former vice president say they're almost certain he will beat Trump in the general election. That’s more than the 48% of Sanders supporters, 35% of Warren supporters and 27% of Buttigieg supporters who say the same thing about their own candidate.

-snip-

Emphasis added.

IMO this question of electability will shift all the actual primary and caucus polls toward Biden, when people finally vote for a nominee next year.

[Thekaspervote]

1. bizarre that IA favored the mayor but then turn around and say Biden most likely to beat dotard

What’s wrong with these people??!!

[highplainsdem]

3. Some voters treat primaries as a period to indulge in infatuations, and some pundits unfortunately

encourage that.

"Vote with your heart, not with your head, in the primary."

How many times have we heard that? Especially from those in the media who prefer other candidates to Biden.

But if you do that, and the candidate you're infatuated with CAN'T beat Trump, then you've effectively thrown your vote away, and possibly helped Trump win re-election by helping a weaker GE candidate get the Democratic nomination.

I'd guess, though, that a lot of primary voters who are really fond of a candidate who probably can't win in the GE will think more pragmatically when they finally cast their vote.

[DownriverDem]

4. Folks need to focus

on who the likely voter is in the General Election. Many are just focusing on who they like.

[JonLP24]

11. I don't think Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump

I didn't think Hillary Clinton was our best chance to win either the last primary when people were telling us Clinton was our only hope.

All this "strategy" is going to cost us by nominating the weaker candidate in Biden. He's being hammered all over social media over "gateway drug" you can't win a general election with comments like that especially when the media won't be so kind when the general election is here.

[boomer_wv]

13. Social media

isn't the electorate.

[JonLP24]

15. A lot of people within the electorate like cannabis

Anyone that ever used it is well aware of the gateway drug myth. In a general election there are a lot of low information apolitical people that like cannabis.

Yes on legalization out performed Clinton in Arizona & Nevada.

[boomer_wv]

16. Where

Does marijuana legalization rank in order of voter issues this year?

It's not what people are voting on.

Who can beat trump
Healthcare

Those are the issues.

[JonLP24]

17. If you want to win the general election legalization is the way to go

Legalization outperformed Hillary Clinton in swing states such as Arizona & Nevada.

[boomer_wv]

18. It doesnt matter.

No evidence to suggest it would have changed anything.

[JonLP24]

19. Look at Michigan

Having Legalization on the ballot helped Democrats win. I'm trying to think of swing states here that support legalization. It narrowly failed in Arizona but yes for legalization still got more votes than Hillary Clinton.

[BannonsLiver]

20. Also to indulge their own ego and sense of entitlement

I always think that when I see IA or NH voters talking about all the candidates they personally meet and how important it is they have that opportunity.

[evertonfc]

2. Pste

Congrats to Mayor Pete but Iowa isn't the face of the party. It's Demographics just do represent our electorate. I fully expect Pete to win there but have zero chance at our nomination. Biden can beat Trump ( quite handily I think) and will beat Trump. Our democracy is at stake and I'm not taking any chances.

[DownriverDem]

5. Then

why don't you prefer Biden here?

[Kahuna7]

6. Exactly. Voters may like Candidate X now, but when it

comes time to actually vote, if they believe Candidate Y has the best chance of winning a general election, chances are, they will end up voting for Candidate Y. These Iowa and NH polls, do not concern me at all.

[PhoenixDem]

7. Of course

as clear as water is wet, ice is cold and salt is salty.

[highplainsdem]

8. kick

[The Valley Below]

9. I like elections where head and heart both lead me to the same decision.

Joe Biden all the way!

[Cha]

10. And, that's what I'm here for!

Mahalo, hpd!

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. I hope you're right about what people will do when actually have to vote. We can't afford to....

screw this up.

[boomer_wv]

14. When it comes times to cast a vote.....

People are going to vote for the person they think can win.

It's going to be Biden.

[Demsrule86]

21. This makes me wonder if Biden could still win this thing despite the polls some of which are suspect

IMHO.