Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThere's Only One Way the Patrick and Bloomberg Campaigns Make Sense
The New RepublicTo be very overly broad (I am, I am aware, describing the beliefs and motives of a large and diverse set of individuals), Clinton World detests Bernie Sanders, is largely on board with Kamala Harris, but has no real problem with Elizabeth Warren, and would greet her nomination without much rancor.
Obama World, on the other hand, doesnt share this perspective. They dont take Sanders seriously, and think of himeven with some affectionas a harmless crank. They, however, strongly dislike Warren. I dont want to say they would stop at nothing to prevent her from winning the nomination, but there are a lot of ancient tensions between the two camps that are far from settled.
If it is the growing consensus among many top Democrats in those two worlds that Joe Biden does not have it in him to win the nomination (or the general election), there are a couple obvious paths forward: Boost the prospects of the mainstream candidate most likely to win if Biden fades, or Option B, which we will get to in a minute.
In Clinton World, it seems obvious to continue to offer support to Kamala Harris, or hope for Amy Klobuchar to surge, or perhaps get on board with Warren. It would be smarter for anyone in the anybody-but-Sanders camp to throw in with Warren now, given the fact that the Harris and Klobuchar campaigns have entered a decaying orbit. But for many, those two senators still make sense on paper, so many seemingly smart people are still convinced something might come of them.
But what should Obama World do if they see Harris (or Cory Booker, or Julián Castro, both of whom are viewed with favor by this camp) struggling to gain traction? Many of this cohort seem to like Mayor Pete Buttigieg and would find his nomination acceptable. Nevertheless, they surely originally envisioned him as, perhaps, a future Senate candidate, or a running mate at best. It cant be lost on them that the primary calendar after New Hampshire and Iowa becomes rough sledding for a candidate whose entire base of support is white. Still, they cant support Warren; Sanders is an unserious option; Biden has perhaps lost it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,568 posts)Sounds like folks are getting nervous that Joe can't go the distance...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,568 posts)Along with Amy, Kamala and Pete, and they apparently want some back up candidates in the wings just in case, to prevent Warren or Sanders getting the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Above is a few...there are plenty more...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Sanders and Warren...one can see clearly that this would not help Biden or further any other moderate candidate...you don't do that by splitting the vote three ways. However, it won't hurt Biden. Both will be gone quickly...Patrick could damage Warren I suppose.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,367 posts)Sounds like a lot of behind-the-scene game players with an axe to grind making a hash of things. Well see where it leads but unity isnt the destination that comes to mind.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
beastie boy
(9,295 posts)The author takes the division between "the Clinton camp" vs 'the Obama camp" for granted. At least he doesn't bother to show any evidence for it existing.
He also takes Biden's impending demise and Warren's rise almost for granted. This is far from inevitable to base speculations of Patric's and Bloomberg's motivations for running. Certainly, it is not the only way their campaigns make sense.
A far more likely and simpler explanation for their entry into the race is that, whether Biden or Warren turns out to be the eventual nominee, they are throwing their hats into the ring not to win, but to line themselves up for a VP spot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Bernie Sanders , " the harmless crank " nearly overcame a 55% polling deficit and carried 22 states in the 2016 election ...He raised over 200 million dollars and received over 1800 delegates on the first ballot at the 2016 Dem Convention .This year he leads all other campaigns in number of contributions , individual contributors and volunteers .The crank Sanders has drawn the largest crowd (26,000) of any Democratic contender in the field ..
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,490 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,324 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,490 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)1. On average, Biden has tested better against Trump than any other candidate.
2. On average, Biden tests better in the super important Rust Belt than any other candidate.
3. Biden does better on average with African Americans, a super important constituency than any other candidate.
4. Biden tests better in the super important South than any other candidate.
5. With 6 terms in the Senate and 8 years as Vice President, Biden has more national political experience than any other candidate.
6. No other candidate has more experience working in the Oval Office than Biden.
7. No other candidate has endured as much campaign battle testing as Biden, and no one else has been more thoroughly vetted than Biden.
8. There is no candidate that either Donald Trump or the Republicans fear more than Biden, as one can see from both the Ukraine affair and which of the candidates Donald Trump goes after the most.
9. Joe Biden is fit, trim, and healthy.
10. As for this quote:
"If it is the growing consensus among many top Democrats in those two worlds that Joe Biden does not have it in him to win the nomination (or the general election), there are a couple obvious paths forward:..."
Joe Biden is the only one of the candidates that we can be sure has it in him to win the nomination. No one else has more experience campaigning. No one has won national elections more often than Joe.
11. Finally. other than basically one day, October 7, 2019, Joe Biden's polling average has always been number one since the day he entered the race last spring:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Joe Biden has been winning this nomination since day 1. As for the two latest entries into the Democratic Presidential Nomination race, who supposedly entered because "Joe Biden cannot get it done", watch as both former Mayor Bloomberg, aka "Mr. Billionaire" "Mr. Stop and Frisk", and "Mr. Only a Democrat when convenient" and Mr. Deval Patrick aka "Mr. Bain Capitol" crash and burn like Japanese Zeros during the battle of the Midway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,490 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)candidates and want to use this phony concern to take down Biden in order to further the success of their own candidates .
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Valley Below
(1,701 posts)and it thrills us, as we know he's the person to crush Trump and that Biden's long coat-tails will help win Congressional seats.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)Bloomberg's stop and frisk policies neutralize Biden's association with criminal injustice and monied interests, and Patrick may make him look better to people who have reservations about the discomfort some women have reported. The primaries are about contrast and when it comes to objectionable history, "at least he's not as bad as......" is something some people will respond to.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Last edited Wed Nov 20, 2019, 03:50 PM - Edit history (1)
men who have wanted to run for president probably for years...seeing multiple candidates and thinking they could maybe take a stab at it...I don't care for Bloomberg and would not vote for him in a primary. Deval is off my list because of the brother in law situation...I think we have two men who want to run for president...Bloomberg may use this to go after Trump too...he has done so thus far.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)105 till a significant portion of voters will get a chance to have their voices heard.
Gonna be a very interesting couple few months.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)Giving the timing, it's the only explanation that makes sense.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided