Beto's hiring of Jen O'Malley Dillon is a signal

[Recursion]

Obama's staying out of the primary, but this means he's blessed Beto over Joe.

It's also a sign of the times and the passing of generations: Biden is still working on a 20th century timeline, when you can start your hiring in June of the year before the election. But things are accelerated now.

Anyways, I think this will effectively keep Biden from announcing, though he will continue to be coy through the summer until he endorses.

[zaj]

1. Bold claim that seems unlikely to be true...

... despite sound reasoning.

[Autumn]

2. Why would Obama do that to his VP? They had a good relationship and I don't think Obama would

stab Biden in the back to support a politician who lost to Ted Cruz.

[Pope George Ringo II]

9. You know who else didn't win Texas?

Obama. Nor either Clinton. And Obama and Cruz both ran in Texas in 2012.

It seems likely the problem lies with Texas, rather than the candidates. There are reasons to prefer a candidate over O'Rourke--I do--but his record in Texas is not a strong argument against him.

[Autumn]

12. True, the problem is Texas. But neither Clinton nor Obama ever ran a race for a seat in Texas.

Him losing in a senate race in TX does not make a strong argument for him. He will stand and fall nationally on his own. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Texas was Jimmy Carter.

[Pope George Ringo II]

13. He came close to winning Texas in an off-year race.

Clinton and Obama (among others) ran for Texas' electoral votes in Presidential elections and didn't even put up a serious fight. O'Rourke even played a huge part in dozens of down-ballot races breaking our way. It's a singular achievement and a feather in his cap and very much an argument for him rather than against him. Using it as an argument against him simply has no basis in the reality which is Texas. Could he put Texas in play in a Presidential election? Possibly, possibly not. But nobody else has a prayer of it.

I'm not sold on him, obviously, but using Texas as an argument against him is just silly. You may as well attack Biden for his lack of experience.

[Autumn]

14. Just as silly as using possibly winning Texas as an argument for him. nt

[Pope George Ringo II]

18. Keep digging.

[Autumn]

20. Disagreeing with you is digging?

Keep hoping then.

[Pope George Ringo II]

21. Being as objective as possible.

Arguing that O'Rourke might or might not put Texas in play is simply not as silly as saying that O'Rourke would be a bad candidate because he came close to winning Texas. Very little I'm going to hear today is anywhere near as ridiculous as that dismissal.

[Autumn]

23. You aren't very objective, or observant. I never said he would be a bad candidate because

he came close he came close to winning Texas. Fact is he lost his senate race to Ted Cruz and Texas is Texas.

[dalton99a]

15. +1. Beto ventured deep into enemy territory

full of rural rednecks. I attended one such event.

And he spent months doing it - the guy worked hard for his votes

[Pope George Ringo II]

19. And we still hear "he lost to Ted Cruz"

Nobody who actually understands what an achievement that was has anything unkind to say about his 2018 record.

Admittedly, there are people in this race who I really think would make better Presidents--Harris, Buttigieg, and Biden right at the top of that list--and there's clearly one who would be worse, but O'Rourke might actually be the best campaigner of the lot.

[Cha]

35. I know.. that charge by sanders' fans & anyone that

.. well, "Beto lost to ted cruz in Texas".. doesn't hold water. And, they should know that.. conveniently leaving how the part where cruz won by less than 3% points.

And the brilliant campaigning Beto did to get there! And, Fundraising!

[MyNameGoesHere]

24. You know who else lost in Texas?

Independent Senator Sanders from VT

2016 TX democratic primary results
Bernie Sanders I-VT 476,547
Hillary Clinton Democrat 936,000

2018 Senate
Beto O'Rourke 4,045,632
Independent Senator from Vermont Did not run 0 votes

Sems like almost everyone got more votes in Texas than the Independent Senator from Vermont.

[Autumn]

28. Refresh my memory please. When did Bernie Sanders ever run for seat in Texas?

Quite the deflection there.

Autumn (33,767 posts)
True, the problem is Texas. But neither Clinton nor Obama ever ran a race for a seat in Texas.

Him losing in a senate race in TX does not make a strong argument for him. He will stand and fall nationally on his own. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Texas was Jimmy Carter.

[MyNameGoesHere]

29. Yeah I noted that in my reply Did not run

You must have missed that.

[Autumn]

31. Apples and oranges. Bernie never ran for a seat in Texas. He ran in a nation wide primary

against Hillary and got 475,561 votes. About half of what his opponent got.

[MyNameGoesHere]

32. So to be clear

the only time he ran in Texas he got wiped out. Seems to me pointing out how O'Rourke lost to Cruz over and over again isn't playing out to well.
But go ahead, I love pointing out that the Independent Senator from VT got crushed in Texas last time he ran there.

[Cha]

36. This!

[lark]

3. I hope you are wrong.

But wouldn't be shocked if you aren't! If Biden doesn't get in soon, I will have to change to Undecided. Boo. I really have no idea who I'd vote for if Biden doesn't run and am not ready to go in that direction until or unless I have to. Oh well, as I've long said, bring on the debates and primaries. I look forward to learning a lot more about quite a few people, most all of which would take the country in a better direction than it's going now.

[Lazy Daisy]

4. Wha?

Because she is going to work on Beto's campaign that means President Obama is "blessing" him over Biden?

I call horse hooey. Just because she worked for Obama doesn't mean she has to have his blessing to work for anybody else. She's not owned by anybody, she's free to go where ever she wants to go. Maybe she got tired of waiting for Biden to come around and got a lucrative offer from the O'Rourke camp. Maybe she saw Beto's fundraising capabilities and knows she'll have a job longer than with Biden. Maybe she herself likes the candidate more than Biden.

She is her own person and can make her own decisions. oof.

[Tipperary]

7. This.

Spot on.

[tammywammy]

17. +1

[getagrip_already]

5. There are other people who can do that role.....

It's not necessarily a signal of anything except that the slot for *this* person will not be for joe.

Maybe he has someone else lined up.

Maybe they just never got along.

doesn't mean anything.

[WeekiWater]

6. Beto O'Rourke set to hire ex-Obama aide Jen O'Malley Dillon to run campaign

CNN

[WeekiWater]

8. Solid hire for Beto. NT

[dalton99a]

10. "Beto Is in His Own Lane"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/03/the-democratic-money-guys-like-what-beto-orourke-is-selling
“Beto Is in His Own Lane”: The Democratic Money Guys Like What O’Rourke Is Selling
On Wall Street, the donor class is keeping a close eye on who’s got the business acumen to go the distance. “I thought Bernie’s number was crazy amazing, and Beto just beat it,” says one Democratic fund-raiser. “My gut tells me that the grassroots support for this guy is going to be off the charts.”
by William D. Cohan
March 21, 2019 4:28 pm

Robert Wolf, Barack Obama’s old friend and favorite Wall Street banker, has spent the last few months scouring the vast Democratic 2020 landscape—talking to potential Democratic presidential candidates, carefully taking their pulse, and gauging their political skills. “I have been friends with many of the potential candidates,” Wolf told me earlier this year. “I’ve already met with a bunch of them or talked to them about their plans to enter.” In short, Wolf is attempting to determine who might light a fire among the electorate in the way he correctly perceived that Obama could—and did—more than a decade ago. Even more succinctly, he’s looking for a candidate who can beat Donald Trump.

Wall Street bundlers have always occupied an often uncomfortable position on the left. Wolf was one of the few Wall Street bankers who proudly supported Obama. (Many rolled their eyes at having to go through Valerie Jarrett to get to Obama.) In the last election cycle, Hillary Clinton was pilloried for giving paid speeches, around $225,000 a pop, to Goldman Sachs, among other big financial institutions. This time around, Kirsten Gillibrand invoked ire on the left by seeking the support of the banking establishment. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke raised about $6 million apiece during their first 24 hours on the trail, largely through small donations, far from the money centers. Regardless, Wolf remains an important player in the process, whether the candidates need his money and that of other Wall Street bigwigs or not. He remains a Wall Streeter who, based on his relationship with Obama, even Democrats have learned to love.

Wolf himself is waiting to pick a favorite until the field winnows. He told me recently that he doesn’t agree with Sanders’s policy agenda, but he was impressed by his ability to raise $10 million in less than a week. Wolf is even more impressed by Beto’s start. “I thought Bernie’s number was crazy amazing, and Beto just beat it,” he told me. “My gut tells me that the grassroots support for this guy is going to be off the charts. I think his road trip from first primary state of Iowa, to the blue wall of Michigan, to Ohio, to Pennsylvania, and then to second primary state of New Hampshire is going to really resonate with grassroots voters and the antithesis of a guy like President Trump coming in his own private plane.” Wolf was careful to point out that it was too early to judge O’Rourke’s true trajectory. But, he added, “it certainly feels” he will be “one of those top three or four people that have the name recognition, the grassroots following, and the money to be in it for a long time.”

Democratic National Committee member Robert Zimmerman, the co-founder of an eponymous communications firm, agreed that O’Rourke could be a contender, but that he’ll face new challenges as a national candidate. “When Beto was running against Ted Cruz, he looked like the angel because he ran against the devil,” Zimmerman said. “Now, we’re in a different environment, where there are a lot of folks of ability that are running. He’s going to have to make his case.” Beto faces other potential obstacles, too, such as recent reports on the juvenile writings and indiscretions of his youth. (O’Rourke, who was arrested for a D.W.I. in his twenties, once belonged to a hacking group called Cult of the Dead Cow.) But, as one powerful Democratic bundler told me, O’Rourke was wise to socialize his mistakes early. Clinton, the bundler continued, had ceded the unflattering story about her e-mails to (mostly unfriendly) others. Obama, on the other hand, had leaned into his own baggage. “I think Obama kind of taught everyone that early on with the Reverend Wright stuff,” he said. “You take it squarely on, and then you own the narrative.”

[Pope George Ringo II]

11. I do think you're reading too much into this.

After eight years of Obama, it seems likely most of the party movers and shakers have some tie to him. Let the man make his own endorsements in his own time.

And let Biden announce his entrance a few times before he announces his entrance.

[WheelWalker]

16. Malarkey.

[ucrdem]

22. It's also possible that they are coordinating

and that Joe will hire an even bigger fish, maybe one people have heard of.

[Eric J in MN]

25. Do you ask a boss you had years ago

...for permission to take a new job?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. I don't see how that follows.

Former Obama staffers are free to work for whoever they want without Obama's blessing or permission. I think that Obama will do what ex-presidents normally do, which is not endorse or show a preference for any primary candidate.

[Gothmog]

27. This is a good move by Beto

[Hassin Bin Sober]

30. No thanks to trust fund recipients

[karynnj]

33. She is free to make her own choice

I would bet many of Obama's young staff will eventually sign to help 2020 nominees. I would suggest that picking one should NOT be seen as a rejection of Biden. It is entirely possible that they are more inspired by someone else. I also suspect they will not initially end up in the same camp.

[demmiblue]

34. No it isn't. n/t

[Cha]

37. I don't think it follows at all.