Nate Silver tweeted 538's new polling averages

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

538 polling averages with CNN + SurveyUSA national & California polls + Emerson New Hampshire included. **All state averages are adjusted for national trends**.

National:
Biden 26.4
Warren 16.9
Sanders 16.5
Buttigieg 9.6
Harris 4.0
Yang 3.1
Bloomberg 2.6
Klobuchar 2.1

[mylightningtoo]

1. Electoral College

[Sherman A1]

2. Certainly different than the poll posted earlier

that indicated Bloomy at 3% was surging above many of the candidates.

[highplainsdem]

4. Well, this average has Bloomberg at 2.6%, half a point behind Yang, half a point ahead of Klobuchar.

I think all the publicity for his announcement and the ad buy are part of that, and this might be the highest he'll get in the polls.

[Sherman A1]

5. He certainly has the money to throw around. I know that I won't vote for him

But, I know that I won't vote for him.

[cannabis_flower]

7. I'll only vote for him..

If he wins the nomination. If it's him or Trump, I'll vote for him.

[bluedye33139]

9. Me too.

[Sherman A1]

10. I would be hard pressed

to find myself going to the polls if he is the nominee. I hope we can do much better.

[aggiesal]

14. Any Democratic Nominee 2020! n/t

[gerryatwork]

16. I'm still

undecided but like most of the choices. From what I’ve seen from the few Bloomberg ads so far is that they are targeting trump and more moderate in nature. So if he spends tens of millions of dollars in the Democrat cause it think it will help whoever gets the nomination in the long run.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. K&R

[ritapria]

6. Nate Silver's Latest IA/NH/NV/SC weighted Polling Avg

Iowa : Buttigieg 23.9 % Sanders 18.7% Biden 17.4% Warren 14.2% ……….NH : Sanders 18.7% Buttigieg 18.1% Biden 15.1 % Warren 14.4% ......……...NV Biden 27.4% Sanders 19.5% Warren 16.6% Buttigieg 9.0% ….....SC : Biden 37.5 % Sanders 13.0% Warren 10.4% Buttigieg 6.8%

[bluedye33139]

8. I have my faves

But it can't really be said enough, I would vote for any of these people if they are the nominee.

[MineralMan]

11. Headline: Biden Only 10 Points Ahead in Primary Poll!

Warren & Sanders Creeping Up on Biden! Buttigieg Surges!

Never mind that Biden has held his lead since polling began, and has never fallen back into second place. Not once in the national polling averages.

[Thekaspervote]

13. yup... the media uses the term surging like any of the candidates are about to overtake Biden

[Doremus]

15. Possibly because Sanders & Warren are splitting the progressive vote?

Interesting to contemplate what might happen if/when one of them drops out.

[samir.g]

12. Biden certainly has staying power

Way more than i expected.

[LiberalLovinLug]

17. I wonder if Biden would be that high without Trump's Ukraine extortion?

I'm sure there is a sympathy bump. And a bit of circling the wagons to defend one of the stalwarts of the Democratic party, being unfairly smeared.

And that is only natural. I have no qualms with that. I also feel that this attack on Joe and Hunter is an attack on the party and all of its supporters as well. Especially sad and disgusting in that Biden's other son recently died of brain cancer. There is no depth...

But it doesn't change the reality that politically it helps galvanize Biden supporters, and maybe attracts other candidate supporters over.

Hey, if he's the front runner next year, and then wins the Presidency in part because of this bump, I'd be fine with it.. But I'd hope most Democrats can separate empathy about this sad situation with Trump and Guliano's subterfuge, in deciding who is best to steer the party and the country past 2020.

[Demsrule86]

18. Oh please...that sort of publicity doesn't do anyone any good...Biden is a good candidate an I

support him...people don't vote for sympathy for who they think will win and Biden's numbers will grow.

[LiberalLovinLug]

20. I didn't say it is some big deciding factor, but a "bump" when looking at recent polls

Speaking for myself, I certainly feel sympathy for Joe, and what he has to go through. I'm sure I'm not the only one.
Pretty cold if you are a Democrat and you don't feel something for him. And if you are still undecided, why wouldn't this attack on the front runner not win over a few more?

I'm not questioning Joe is still the front runner, just that the extent of the lead at this moment, among Democrats, is partly accredited to many wanting to stand with him and have his back during this whole idiotic painful situation he never asked for. Which I totally understand.

[boomer_wv]

24. Not really a bump

It's just voters coming home who had flirted with Warren for a bit.

There is a big group of loose voters right now, and they are bouncing around. They were with Biden, went to Harris for a week, went with Warren, now most are with Pete. Some of these come back to Biden each time there is a shift though.

[Cha]

19. yeah.. keep wondering

[LiberalLovinLug]

21. Hi Cha

[oasis]

22. Looks about right. nt

[intheflow]

23. I put no trust in Silver any more.

He blew it in 2016 and he's a Libertarian. Neither are a good look.