Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumNEW HAMPSHIRE 2020: Sanders jumps to lead, BUttigieg surges While Warren and Biden slip (Emerson)
A new WHDH 7 News/Emerson College poll finds a major shakeup in the New Hampshire primary with Senator Bernie Sanders leading with 26%, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 22%. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are at 14%, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is at 6%, and Entrepreneur Andrew Yang is at 5%. All other candidates are below 5%. (Nov. 22-26, MM, n=549, +/- 4.1%).
This is a major shift from Emersons last New Hampshire poll in September, where Biden led with 24% (-10), followed by Warren with 21% (-7). Sanders has jumped from third, where he was at 13% (+13), and Buttigieg also doubled his support from 11% (+11).
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said the Democratic voters have taken a look at Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and they appear unsatisfied at this time which brought some voters back to Bernie Sanders while others are now moving to a fresh face in Pete Buttigieg, this demonstrates the fluidity of the race.
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/11/27/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-jumps-to-lead-buttigieg-surges-while-warren-and-biden-slip/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,325 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,510 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,325 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,510 posts)...and this is just a guess but the other Primary candidates seem to be aware that they have competition.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
roody
(10,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)You're welcome.
Bernie Sanders lost last time. He didn't have as many supporters as HRC.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hekate
(90,659 posts)Bernie might have been playing it straight, but other entities were hell-bent on driving a wedge between all Americans. And they did, to our everlasting detriment.
Thanks, ehrnst. I say the same thing as often as I see the necessity.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lucky Luciano
(11,253 posts)...going in that the electoral college is what needs to be won and Californians are relatively disenfranchised.
The correct strategy of aggressively focusing on the key states didnt happen.
...and the interference didnt help, but that is hard to quantify.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)I hate it when people ignore or dismiss the incredible feat of winning by that much in face of the things working against her:
-The statistical improbability of keeping the WH in one party for more than two consecutive terms (explaining in part why so few men threw their hats in)
-A Russian misinformation campaign working against her succefully waged with young white, college educated liberals.
-Misogyny on the Right and Left
-Twenty five years of GOP smears and attacks
-Comey's bogus concern letter days before the election
-Suppression of the Democratic vote in the key states where she lost by a sliver, in numbers greater than the margin she lost by.
I'd say the sort of win by the margin of votes she pulled out in the face of all that is pretty damn incredible, and unmatched.
Being a "flawed" candidate, or running a "flawed" campaign was never a deal breaker for any other Democratic POTUS candidate, even Dukakis. Only She was required to be "perfect," and making her "flaws" - real or fictional - the sole reason for the stealing of the Oval Office by the GOP with the help of Russia and Assange, supports the narrative and ambitions of certain other politicians.
Including Trump and Putin.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lucky Luciano
(11,253 posts)However, people clamoring over the popular vote totals that say "she won" is inaccurate. Campaign strategies would be way different if it were about popular vote totals. We have to win the electoral college - period - no matter how stupid and undemocratic the EC is. The EC definitely gives the rednecks an edge.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)"Clamoring" to say that she "lost" is equally inaccurate.
It was a huge upset, considering the hurdles she had before crossing the finishing line 3 mill votes ahead. Not behind.
She did indeed cross the line first, and the WH was stolen from us, and the winner in a criminal act.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)And were likely smiling when they heard the news.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to brooklynite (Reply #2)
Post removed
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)but we can always squeeze in to make more room.
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,325 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)sanders is not likely to be the nominee. New Hampshire is a 90+% white state that does not reflect the demographics of the party
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ismnotwasm
(41,976 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)...to win the nomination.
Proportionally, Sanders will get no more than about half those 24, which is less than 1% of those required. I applaud your enthusiasm and sense of humor, but for this from his closest neighbor, BS is toast.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)I doubt that sanders will be the nominee
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
roody
(10,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,757 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
roody
(10,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Many assume that Bernies supporters from 2016 are a deeply loyal group, but it would appear that with more alternatives in 2020 (beyond Hillary Clinton) former Bernie voters have new top choices. For example, of Bernies 2016 supporters, 15.7% now selected Beto ORourke as their top choice, 11.7 % selected Joe Biden, 7.9% selected Pete Buttigieg and 6% selected Kamala Harris.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/#388094657ddd
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)not the other way around.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(112,141 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lexblues
(180 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)That is not going to happen NEw Hampshire is 90+% white I really doubt that sanders will be the nominee without some wins in states that reflect the demographics of the party
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 29, 2019, 04:14 PM - Edit history (1)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
roody
(10,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,325 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)what does that say about the candidate?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Dem4Life1102
(3,974 posts)and letting people vote. Lets have a coronation instead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DavidDvorkin
(19,474 posts)As a Buttigieg supporter, I'd like to believe Mayor Pete's numbers, but I'll take a wait-and-see attitude to this poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,333 posts)https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
evertonfc
(1,713 posts)in NH not nationally. Big difference. NH is not reflective of the party demographics.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)They're not ready for a "socialist revolution".
In my humble opinion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Quackers
(2,256 posts)Last edited Sun Dec 1, 2019, 12:32 PM - Edit history (1)
I thought she wouldve held onto more support for a little longer.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
roody
(10,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)You dont speak for even a fraction of us.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)And she hasnt fallen anywhere.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Quackers
(2,256 posts)I fixed it. In regard to my point though, she has fallen. Her numbers here on DU have plummeted to 7% after being in the double digits. Her poll number nationally have fallen every week for a few months now, and then one of her top aids resigned and penned a letter speaking to how bad everything was and everyone is being treated. Then according to a New York Times article, more than 50 current and former campaign staffers and allies corroborated the conditions listed in the letter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/us/politics/kamala-harris-2020.html
Im not trying to be mean, I really was surprised her campaign has fallen. Its disingenuous to say it hasnt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,757 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,953 posts)... a surprise, to me. I can't believe Tulsi and Yang are doing better than some behind them... I did see their momentary appeal, but am really surprised they are ahead of some names. Also surprised Biden and Warren aren't closer to the top two. Of course, it all will change... again and again...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,176 posts)their minds, 14% are undecided, and their partially open primary means that anyone before the primary election, can change their registration to no party preference, and then that group can choose which primary they want to participate in
"the New Hampshire primary is not a "closed primary," where voter participation is limited by voters' past or recent party registration. Instead, New Hampshire enables any voter who has been undeclared, or re-registers as undeclared (not registered with any party) to vote in either party's primary. This seemingly technical distinction can have big impacts on the primary, and how fluidly candidates do in the state (especially if only one party has a competitive primary in a given year, eliciting a greater likelihood that undeclared or less partisan voters will flood that party's primary, if they want to participate at all.) This system is not a fully open primary, because people who are registered with a party (Republican or Democratic) on voting day cannot vote in the other party's primary."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
To demonstrate the point:
"Hillary Clinton managed an upset win over Barack Obama in New Hampshire, despite polls showing her as much as 13 points behind in the run-up to the vote.[20] The win helped Clinton get back some of the momentum she lost the week before when Obama carried the Iowa caucusesthough Obama did eventually win the Democratic nomination. John McCain won the Republican primary, sparking an unexpected comeback for the senator whose long-shot campaign had been written off as a lost cause months before."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,953 posts)... thank you!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,176 posts)allow bragging rights for whoever comes in first, it will be interesting to see if that carries any momentum over into Super Tuesday IMHO
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,176 posts)poll. In addition NH is a partially open primary:
" the New Hampshire primary is not a "closed primary," where voter participation is limited by voters' past or recent party registration. Instead, New Hampshire enables any voter who has been undeclared, or re-registers as undeclared (not registered with any party) to vote in either party's primary. This seemingly technical distinction can have big impacts on the primary, and how fluidly candidates do in the state (especially if only one party has a competitive primary in a given year, eliciting a greater likelihood that undeclared or less partisan voters will flood that party's primary, if they want to participate at all.) This system is not a fully open primary, because people who are registered with a party (Republican or Democratic) on voting day cannot vote in the other party's primary."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
helpisontheway
(5,007 posts)IMPRESSIVE...Not..🙄 Continue to surge Mayor Pete..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lucky Luciano
(11,253 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden 24 to 14
Warren 21 to 14
Sanders 13 to 26
Buttigieg 11 to 22
I could see one, maybe two having shifts that large, but all four?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Joe941
(2,848 posts)his enemies are pushing.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
newblewtoo
(667 posts)just so everyone knows. NH is a has a unique primary which is subject to manipulation by 'many groups'. NH allows independents to 'select' a party on primary day and then switch back to independent status after voting. This is a one horse race on the Republicon side, many 'independents' will take advantage to RF the results.
Do not set any store in the results. "Independents' will break for the least likely opposition candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)neighboring state to hers...Sanders too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts).... will have an impact on the Iowa and New Hampshire elections. I also predict that what feels good right now for some people won't be feeling so good once the primary is out of Iowa and New Hampshire, and moves to states that are actually representative of the general population.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden