THE ECONOMIST 2020 Primary polling model. Buttigieg rising.Biden and Sanders static. Warren falling

[brooklynite]

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[Thekaspervote]

1. Numbers in the poll Biden 25% Warren 19% sanders 17% mayor 12%

Seems the front runner still has a sizable lead...especially considering this poll has always been one of the most favorable to warren!

[crazytown]

2. What the smoothed regression shows

is Biden declining slowly since his announcement. He has plenty of supporters, but has won few new friends. Even Morning Consult shows the same pattern.

[Thekaspervote]

5. He remains the front runner! Yes, had a BIG initial bump which was expected. Biden's numbers have

Increased over the past 4-5 weeks retaking a sizable lead and padding other leads, especially with the AA voters. Still leaves everyone else in the dust!

[crazytown]

6. Maybe we were looking at different graphs

Maybe we were looking at different graphs (which is what I was commenting on). Biden's support has not increased over the past 4-5 weeks, and is lower than before his announcement. His lead has increased as Buttigieg has snapped up Warren's support. Certainly as a frontrunner he would prefer three relatively weaker competitors, but as I said before, he is not attracting new voters.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Yes I guess we are

The former vice president came out 11 points ahead of runner-up Bernie Sanders.
More at the link
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/27/joe-biden-tops-new-poll-elizabeth-warren-slips-074159

RCP avg
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#poll

✔
@NateSilver538
· Nov 25, 2019
FWIW, we're working on polling averages that account for house effects, weight polls based on quality, are pretty sophisticated about differentiating signal v. noise, etc.

Here's what they'd say right now:

National:
Biden 26.9
Warren 19.7
Sanders 16.7
Buttigieg 7.5

[democratisphere]

3. Your headline misrepresents the status of the frontrunners.

Cut it out!

[Thekaspervote]

4. Doesn't it thou!