Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe Atlantic: Nobody Knows Anything About 'Electability'
Nobody Knows Anything About ElectabilityWhen pundits anoint Bidenor Sanders or ORourkeas the likeliest to beat Trump, theyre making lots of dubious assumptions.
Have we learned nothing? In 2016, very few political writers, myself emphatically included, thought Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency. Very few thought Bernie Sanders would win 23 states and 13 million votes in his Democratic-primary battle with Hillary Clinton.
The voters were lousy prognosticators too. Although polls generally suggested that Sanders would fare better against Trump, voters overwhelmingly believed Hillary Clinton had a better chance of winning the general election. And in the closing weeks of the 2016 campaign, they overwhelmingly predicted that Clinton, not Trump, would triumph.
The point is that we, and they, simply dont know. Electability is extremely hard to predict. And when pundits discuss it, they often rely on unstated and dubious assumptionswhich usually lead them to predict that the most centrist candidate with the most establishment support is the person general-election voters will like best.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/03/joe-bidens-electability-myth/585508/
I agree. Electability is a moving target.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)we want, and certainly not what we're told by pundits who make very good livings pretending they know what they cannot.
Currently, the results of the midterms should be studied very intensively and respected as by far our largest and most reliable source of information at this point.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ismnotwasm
(41,919 posts)Its a new world, and many of the older predictive models dont seem as relevant
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)but there are pages to be filled, blogs to be posted and airtime on Cable Noise to fill between ads for drugs we never knew we needed. Most of everything we see or hear on this topic is simply opinion or conjecture. Candidate A might do better if The Sun rises earlier on Tuesday, while Candidate B has some terrible baggage from grammar school when they were late coming in from recess, yet we must remember that Candidate C has admitted to binging on Snickers Bars during an all night study session in college and that may affect their electability.
It's all pretty much drivel......
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Or at least, were thought to be unelectable at some point.
Kennedy - A Catholic?!
Nixon - Lost in 1960 and wasn't coming back.
Carter - Jimmy who?
Reagan -Too conservative and a stupid actor, for God's sake!
Bill Clinton - Gave a boring speech in the 1988 Convention and of course he could never recover from that.
Bush Jr. - Can he tie his shoes without Dick Cheney's help?
Obama - Inexperienced and this country is still too racist.
And of course, gold-plated Satan himself.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden