According to 538 Biden is in the lead in Iowa and NH!

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

1. URGENT UPDATE @538 ALL POLLS ON AVERAGE #IOWA AND #NEWHAMPSHiRE

Link to tweet

[Cha]

5. Steady as you GOJOE!

Mahalo, Goth!

[Kahuna7]

14. I'll say it again. Date those guys...Marry Joe!

[NurseJackie]

2. Trends and averages are more revealing and reliable...

... compared to outliers and online polls. BS will not be our party's nominee.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Agree! And....it will be great when sanders returns to VT!

[boomer_wv]

3. For anyone....

who doesn't understand why this happened when no new state polls have come out...

The 538 model assumes correlation with other state and national polls. So, since we have seen some decline in Buttigieg numbers nationally and Biden has seen some of his best polls lately, you get movement like this.

[R B Garr]

4. Thanks for this update, Goth!

It looks like Democrats are consistently picking the candidate who has been the most unifying! The in-fighting has worked against the candidates engaged in it.

[UniteFightBack]

6. Democrats want to win....no we NEED to win. nt

[AlexSFCA]

7. great! Warren will successfully block BS path to nomination

She is saving our party.

[Demsrule86]

17. That is true...and the sooner he loses by a large amount the sooner he will suspend his campaign

or at least minimize the harm he can cause our nominee. This team primary nonsense that some of Warren and Biden supporters are talking about will cost us the general if we end up with a brokered convention..so Biden's margins in the end must be bigger than their combined delegate count.

[bearsfootball516]

26. I honestly don't think neither Sanders nor Warren will suspend, at least not early.

They're both pulling enough support to hang on. But the longer they both stay in the race, the better for Biden.

[Demsrule86]

31. I agree to a point but Sander is a problem if he goes to the convention...I do not think a huge

number of voters would support Sanders ...as more than a few Hillary supporters in Warren's numbers.

[Midnight Writer]

8. Iowa has a caucus. Polls are not as important as local organization.

With these candidates clustered so closely, the decision will go to the candidate with the best boots on the ground.

[Demsrule86]

19. Right and this is why there should be no caucuses...it does not measure the vote of a state for the

candidates. If they insist on keeping caucuses...they need to go last next time.

[Tiggeroshii]

25. Well that isnt how it is. Bernie winning IA likely means he will win the first two states

That would be devastating for the frontrunner.

[Demsrule86]

32. No it wouldn't...not when one is New Hampshire...Bernie does not have enough AA support to win the

nomination. Thus he won't be the nominee.

[Tiggeroshii]

33. With the order of the primary, it is a huge setback.

Losing the first two states might not completely derail Biden, but it wont be a good thing for him. The only way to keep this in the bag is if he wins all the early states. If one candidate wins the first two states they are likely to have a lot of momentum to cipher enough votes in sc that would hinder Biden in super tuesday. "Denial is not just a river in egypt." As they say.


That being said, if Biden wins both states, it is basically game over for anybody else. Based on polls, that is also a very likely option.

[thewhollytoast]

9. Frag - Order

Frag - Order

“Kids it is time to fix bayonets and push these “mutherfucker’s” back into the sea.”

Colonel Biden forget your losses and protect the rear.

Sergeant Major Bernie rally the troops! We have new people coming in.

Toast

[Tiggeroshii]

10. IA has a caucus, polls are irrelevant

[BannonsLiver]

18. All of the sudden they're irrelevant.

[Tiggeroshii]

22. In IA, they basically have been

As long as they are within 1 point, and even more when they are exponentially within the moe. Everybody knows Sanders over performs well in caucus states, and he is polling ahead already in NH. Winning IA, even by the slmissest margins puts him on track to win IA and NH. No candidate has won both without also winning the nomination.

[BannonsLiver]

23. Righhhhht

[Tiggeroshii]

24. You responded fast.

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. K&R

[crazytown]

15. ROFLMAO!!!!

[PhoenixDem]

16. Biden may not win IA and NH but

he will be a close second or a close third in a neck to neck race, taking away the thunder of winning from anyone at the top.
Biden will win Nevada and then sweep SC, winning all the delegates there and in a lead that he will never lose after that.

Go Joe!!

[Demsrule86]

21. That is my take too.

[Gothmog]

27. sanders needs a clear win in Iowa an New Hampshire

If there is an effective tie, then Biden will clean up in South Carolina

[BannonsLiver]

20. Hardly looking like the lay up easy win For Sanders his supporters have claimed it would be.

[ritapria]

28. RCP has Buttigieg leading Iowa with 22%

Mayor Pete is leading in 3 of the last 4 Iowa Polls published .. Nate has him in 3rd place ? Nate is an obvious supporter of Biden … Silver is constantly talking up Biden's prospects , while describing Bernie's supporter as "residue" …...He is the genius who stated Trump would never win the GOP nomination- when it was obvious he had a real chance of doing so …. The "numbers man" lets his personal opinions cloud his analysis of the data … Hence , he has lost some of his credibility ….

[BannonsLiver]

29. How is it obvious?

[treestar]

30. So "No Malarkey" wasn't so off-putting after all!

[Joe941]

34. Biden will lead and win the most delegates until some candidates drop out....

And coalesce around bernie.

[oasis]

35. Biden's the One!

[Gothmog]

36. From Nate

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

37. Iowa-- Biden in the lead

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

38. How Biden stopped his Iowa tailspin

Link to tweet

He launched a successful, eight-day bus tour through rural Iowa last month that sparked an uptick in volunteers, precinct captain requests and caucus commitments. He doubled his fundraising in the last quarter, allowing him to flood the state’s airwaves with ads.

This week, Biden’s Iowa fortunes picked up again when he landed perhaps the most influential Iowa endorsement to date — Rep. Abby Finkenauer, the second youngest person ever elected to Congress. That followed on the heels of endorsement from two other influential state Democrats — Tom Vilsack, a former governor and U.S. secretary of Agriculture, and his wife, Christie — and a well-timed cash infusion in TV ads from a pro-Biden superPAC.

Biden’s rebound comes amid a concentrated effort here. From Nov. 30 through this weekend, Biden will have spent 16 days in Iowa. By caucus day, he will have spent $4 million in integrated paid media, including broadcast TV, cable, Hulu, and social media.

The former vice president is on a second extended bus tour now — and the campaign just announced a separate surrogate bus tour next week with former Secretary of State John Kerry, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and various federal and state lawmakers from across the country.