At this point, it is apparent that the Democratic nominee will be either Sanders or Biden.

[Atticus]

Short of some totally unforeseen event---like, God forbid, a health event or a plane crash---none of the other candidates have a realistic chance to win. Even if we wind up with a brokered convention, it is unlikely that the delegates would select a third or fourth place finisher over one or the other of the top two.

It is also apparent that, if all the current candidates remain in the race, Sanders will be our nominee, quite possibly as the result of arriving at our convention with a plurality of delegates. Even if one adds the Warren and Sanders votes together (though I don't consider the two equivalents), the "liberal" votes have never equaled those cast for the "moderates". Sanders would, thus, be a nominee selected by a minority of Democrats.

If, however, the "no real chance" candidates were to withdraw or suspend their campaigns, this would permit the consolidation of the majority behind Biden and an outright primary victory.

Why would candidates who have worked so hard for the nomination step aside? Why would their genuinely enthusiastic supporters transfer their enthusiastic support to Biden? Biden, selected by a majority of Democrats, will DEFEAT TRUMP and will have "coattails" long enough to elect a Democratic House and Senate.

Sanders, if nominated, would get my vote, but would lose---the presidency, the Senate and possibly the House.

[DonaldsRump]

1. Am feeling the Burn....the Biden Burn! n/t

[Garrett78]

2. It's been obvious since the first NV results came in that this is a 2-person race.

As I posted when we got the entrance poll data from Nevada, if that data is even remotely reflective of the outcome, this is clearly a 2-person race.

The other candidates simply don't have enough support, particularly among persons of color, youth, etc.

That said, a contested convention could, in fact, produce a nominee who is neither Sanders nor Biden.

[zackymilly]

3. It's time for Bernie to release his medical records. nt

[ucrdem]

4. I think this was the signal they were waiting for.

Clyburn and McCauliffe are now on board and talking about retooling for November, with other Obama fundraisers publicly throwing in for Joe. So fasten your seat belts cuz here we go!

[Happyhippychick]

5. Bloomberg hasn't been on the ballot yet

So I think your projection is premature

[tarheelsunc]

6. Steyer, Klobuchar, and Warren should drop out yesterday. eom

[Sparkly]

7. 2,376 Delegates out of 4,750

It is still really early.

However, when voters leap to conclusions after a few states, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I understand the problem of so many non-Bernies splitting the not-Bernie vote, but that doesn't mean it has to be Biden. It could be a WOMAN. Warren or Klobuchar.

I don't want to give up hope.

[Garrett78]

8. None of the other candidates have sufficient support among POC, youth, etc.

It's evident from the first 4 contests (and, really, from the first 3 contests) and from the abundance of polling that Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren, Steyer and others lack the necessary support to be viable.

After Super Tuesday, we'll see numerous candidates leave the race.

[Sparkly]

9. Who knows?

Support is fluid. Why do we fossilize everything the first few states decide?

[squirecam]

10. It's pretty clear

Biden has the AA vote.

It’s Sanders vs Biden. It’s time to face reality.

[Sparkly]

11. If we didn't think in those terms

what might it be?

If we didn't throw in the towel every time, and decide the writing on the wall after South Carolina was a done-deal binary choice between two men (with only one exception in history), we might have a real measure of Democratic choice. Instead, voters are guessing about what other voters are guessing. Women are the first to go.

[squirecam]

12. The nominee

Will pick a woman to be VP. It’s not what I wanted. But that victory would still be historic nonetheless.

[Sparkly]

14. That is something.

At the risk of "identity politics," I hope she is a completely unhip boring old white woman who reminds sexists of all stripes of the librarian or third grade teacher or parental figure or whatever the heck woman in authority they have such an issue with, so they can finally just get over it once and for all.

[Garrett78]

13. If we were letting the first states decide, Buttigieg would be a frontrunner.

But he isn't and never was. Buttigieg, like Klobuchar, put most all their resources into doing well in IA and NH, as that's what underdogs do. And it worked out fairly well for him, while Klobuchar was given a lifeline thanks to the chaos in IA (she finished 5th in a state that borders her own but that got little coverage). However, when you have near-zero support nationally among POC, you will *not* be the Democratic Party's nominee for president. Warren is only in slightly better shape and really has no shot either. Steyer, like Yang and Gabbard, also never stood a chance.

Remember, in addition to these first several contests, we have a lot of polling (nationally and in various states). Contrary to what some believe, that polling becomes very telling as we get closer and closer to people actually voting.

All that said, we could end up with a nominee that isn't Biden or Sanders due to the relatively high likelihood of a contested convention (relative, that is, to most years when the odds are practically zilch). I wouldn't bet on that, but it is possible. I think, though, it would be tough to justify having the "unity candidate" be someone who did really poorly in the primary. "Let's nominate someone who almost nobody voted for" would be a really tough sell.

[Sparkly]

16. "Let's separate the Primary from the General."

There seems to be confusion about "winners" in the Primary being strong contenders against Trump. They are NOT necessarily that at all. On the contrary, a candidate like Sanders could lose to Trump while also costing us the House and letting them keep the Senate.

A candidate like Klobuchar -- and I've seen this in past races -- has the greatest difficulty in the primary. If she could get through the Democrats' trials, she would sway Republicans and moderates in the general, throughout the country. This is a woman who has never lost a race against a Republican, no matter how 'red' the voters -- she persuades them.

Or Elizabeth Warren -- all the progressive zeal of Sanders, but in a positive, cheerful, can-do attitude. Every woman I know except two (seriously!) are for Warren!! She can get out the vote among women the way candidates did in 2018, but then again Amy could do that in local areas where red and purple districts flipped.

I think we need to keep our eyes on THESE prizes -- the majority of this country is WOMEN. It's our Centennial. This should be our year and we still have MEN leading the polls, for absolutely NO reason but one.

I'm sorry, but I'm old enough to be infuriated, and tired of it, by now.

[Quixote1818]

15. Except Sanders polls better head to head with all the candidates

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/18/democrat-head-to-head-poll

[Sparkly]

17. Which points to the problem.

[squirecam]

18. Biden does better in the swing states we need to win in November.

Nt