How will Biden look after Super Tuesdays?

[left-of-center2012]

CNN said Sanders is way ahead in polls for Texas, CA, etc.

California Democratic Primary
Sanders 35.3
Warren 17
Biden 11
Bloomberg 10
Buttigieg 9.7
Klobuchar 5.7

Texas Democratic Primary
Sanders 28.3
Biden 20.3
Bloomberg 19.7
Warren 13.0
Buttigieg 7.7
Klobuchar 3.3

Virginia Democratic Primary
Sanders 25.0
Bloomberg 19.5
Biden 18.5
Buttigieg 11.5
Warren 11.0
Klobuchar 7.0

Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Sanders 24.7
Warren 20.7
Buttigieg 13.3
Bloomberg 11.7
Biden 10.7
Klobuchar 6.0

Colorado Democratic Primary
Sanders 30.5
Warren 17.5
Buttigieg 13.0
Bloomberg 12.5
Biden 10.5
Klobuchar 6.0

more at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html

[dem4decades]

1. Biden better get over 15% in California as a next step.

[ripcord]

2. The problem is that he has no presence here

Sander and Bloomberg are saturating the state with ads, I've even seen a good number from Warren but nothing from Biden.

[beastie boy]

4. Steyer just dropped out. He was polling at 3% in California.

If more than half of his former supporters vote for Biden, that gets Joe over 15%. And that's not counting the effects of today's primary results on any possible changes to the numbers reported in the OP.

[hay rick]

7. I expect Steyer's supporters to go to progressive candidates.

Speaking for myself. I just went to Warren.

[Lord Ludd]

9. Thanks & welcome aboard! nt

[squirecam]

12. Frankly Warren getting 15% statewide in CA

helps Biden too.

If only Sanders is viable statewide in CA, that hurts everyone else.

[beastie boy]

25. Judging by SC data, Steyer has done better with older moderates & POCs than white young progressives

It may be different in California, I just don't have any references to make this conclusion.

[aeromanKC]

28. Thanks

That's what I was looking for when I clicked on this OP!!

[hay rick]

30. My opinion is based on a sample size of one- me.

I'm old, white, and progressive (whatever that means). I will say that my choice was based almost entirely on Steyer's insistence on the primary importance of dealing with the climate crisis. I supported Inslee before he dropped out for the same reason. I think, given the horror of forest fires in recent years, climate change is also an extremely important issue in California.

[MontanaMama]

3. The media always has to have a horse race...

So that people will watch their pundits spew whatever it is they spew.

[dem4decades]

22. Isn't it?

[bdamomma]

42. yeah the corporate media

wants the ratings and the money. I am learning to take what the media says with a grain of salt. These pundits and talking heads only want the status quo, they are totally unfazed what the American people are hoping for in a candidate.

Let them not to make the choice of who we want to be our candidate. Let's shake the media up, and move into the 21st century.

[2naSalit]

5. SC has a way of

helping shift the sentiment in primaries. I hope this win will broadcast far ad wide enough to carry him. But for now still hope Warren picks up some more delegates.

[Celerity]

6. MSNBC siad (super fluid and NOT at all a sure thing) that if only Bernie hits viability in CA

he will end ST with around a 250 delegate lead (for all states who have voted so far) over Biden. If Biden hits viability in CA that overall Sanders leads drops to around 150.

Those are pretty close to pure guesses they warned.

[Moderateguy]

11. Does the 250 include Warren hitting viability

The polls have her over 15% in CA

[squirecam]

13. No

Kornaki was just doing it with Biden at 15%.

Warren at 15% would make Sanders lead less.

[Moderateguy]

14. You mean just Sanders?

[squirecam]

18. If just Sanders was viable statewide

He would be up 250. If Biden had 15% Biden would be down 140.

He didn’t do Warren also at 15%, but if all 3 did, the Sanders lead would be less.

[Moderateguy]

19. Thank You!

[Celerity]

16. no the 250 was with only Bernie above 15 in CA, and the 150 was with only Bernie and Biden above 15%

[Moderateguy]

21. Thanks!

[Celerity]

24. YW

[AGeddy]

8. The polls had Biden winning SC by only 4% just two days ago.

Polls are lagging indicators.

All of those numbers will move over the next 72 hours.

[empedocles]

29. Salient point

Voters seem very fluid. BS not a 'strong' candidate, imo.

[Celerity]

32. that poster is just dead wrong with what they said

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287602332#post31

[Celerity]

31. that is not true at all, and unlike you, I give links

https://www.scribd.com/document/442330110/Fox-News-Poll-January-5-8-2020-South-Carolina

S.C.
JAN 5-8, 2020
A-
Fox News
808 LV Biden
36%
Biden +21
Steyer
15%
Sanders
14%
Warren
10%
Buttigieg
4%
Bloomberg
2%
Booker
2%
Yang
2%
Gabbard
1%
Klobuchar
1%
Bennet
0%
Delaney
0%
Patrick
0%
Williamson
0%



https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article239675533.html

S.C.
JAN 9-13, 2020
GQR Research*
600 LV
Biden
44%
Biden +29
Sanders
15%
Steyer
12%
Warren
10%
Buttigieg
5%



https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-poll-biden-leads-presidential-primary-among-likely-democratic-voters-but-many-open-to-changing-their-mind-before-election-day-trump-and-graham-lead-comfortably-in-general-election-matchups

S.C.
JAN 31-FEB 2, 2020
East Carolina University
469 LV Biden
37%
Biden +18
Steyer
19%
Sanders
14%
Warren
8%
Buttigieg
4%
Yang
3%
Klobuchar
2%
Gabbard
2%
Bloomberg
1%


https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SouthCarolinaResultsFebruary2020.pdf


S.C.
FEB 23-24, 2020
Public Policy Polling
866 LV Biden
36%
Biden +15
Sanders
21%
Warren
8%
Buttigieg
7%
Steyer
7%
Gabbard
6%
Klobuchar
3%



http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

S.C.
FEB 17-25, 2020
Clemson University
650 LV Biden
35%
Biden +18
Steyer
17%
Sanders
13%
Buttigieg
8%
Warren
8%
Klobuchar
4%
Gabbard
2%




https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_sc_022720.pdf/

FEB 23-25, 2020
A+
Monmouth University
454 LV Biden
36%
Biden +20
Sanders
16%
Steyer
15%
Warren
8%
Buttigieg
6%
Klobuchar
4%
Gabbard
1%



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200227_SC.pdf

FEB 26, 2020
Starboard Communications
1,102 LV Biden
40%
Biden +28
Steyer
12%
Sanders
11%
Warren
9%
Buttigieg
9%
Klobuchar
6%
Gabbard
2%





http://emersonpolling.com/2020/02/27/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest/


S.C.
FEB 26-27, 2020
A-
Emerson College
425 LV Biden
41%
Biden +17
Sanders
25%
Buttigieg
11%
Steyer
11%
Klobuchar
6%
Warren
5%
Gabbard
2%



https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/02/28/2020-first-in-the-south-democratic-presidential-primary-the-oracle-speaks/

S.C.
FEB 26-27, 2020
Trafalgar Group
1,081 LV Biden
44%
Biden +21
Sanders
23%
Steyer
11%
Buttigieg
10%
Klobuchar
6%
Warren
6%
Gabbard
2%

[AGeddy]

34. ...

Every Sanders supporter on this site was linking to this poll on Thursday:


https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/new-sc-polls-show-biden-continues-to-lead-over-sanders/article_05d916aa-58df-11ea-9452-23751758f31e.html

Biden 28
Sanders 24

[Celerity]

38. I don't care about some Sanderite fantasy, why are you, a Biden supporter, pushing that

outlier as if it was the only indicator?

[AGeddy]

41. Even the most optimistic Biden polls the past two days were well under the final result

Polls are lagging indicators that don't pick up momentum swings.


And I am using that poll because it is the one that everyone was citing just 48 hours ago. Throwing it in the "sanderite" faces, so to speak.

[Celerity]

43. there is a massive difference between 4% (your claim) and well over 20% nt

[highplainsdem]

10. We won't know till after Super Tuesday. But if you think the pre-SC polls are still relevant -- NO.

[Celerity]

23. they are relevant for the million plus votes already cast, the ST result will be far worse for

Biden than if no votes were cast yet. He would have crushed Bernie if those early votes were all done on Tuesday.

[AGeddy]

35. According to Harry Enten, roughly 20% of CA early votes have come in

80% to go. That's a lot of room for Biden to make up room and get well above 15% and limit Sanders' delegate haul.

[Celerity]

40. non sequitur nt

[W_HAMILTON]

39. Anyone that has already early voted in a Super Tuesday state...

...probably is the type that knew who they were going to vote for and wouldn't be swayed by the results in another state (e.g., South Carolina) to begin with.

[still_one]

15. Unlike some candidates, Biden will have his hair combed

[peggysue2]

44. LOL!!

Hummmm. Who could you be talking about????

[still_one]

46. Hmmmmmmmm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. How will Biden look after Super Tuesdays?

Better than Bloomberg.

[mzmolly]

20. Biden may have more momentum

going forward, than the polls reflect.

[Happy Hoosier]

26. He needs to do well enough to keep it close.

And then focus on winning in the later states. I think after Super Tuesday, we'll see some other candidates drop out and the race will be sorted more clearly.

[squirecam]

27. After Super Tuesday comes Florida

Where Bernie isn’t currently expected to do well.

[MontanaFarmer]

33. Texas polling has been all over the place,

and a recent Virginia poll showed Biden gaining fast (leading i think). I think he'll be behind due to CA, make up most of that in Florida, and go battle Bernie in the rust belt after that.

[Moderateguy]

36. Florida is also a closed primary so...

[MontanaFarmer]

37. Yeah i expect Bernie may be

Nonviable statewide in Florida.

[NCProgressive]

45. Sen. Harris will probably endorse Joe

and he will win California

[ucrdem]

47. That would be a game changer.

For both of them so I hope she does this. Not optimistic though.