California has a larger population than all four states that have voted so far.

[Buzz cook]

Just like to point that out before we write off all but two candidates.

Winning one state or three doesn't get you the nomination.

[squirecam]

1. After Super Tuesday

The choices will be Sanders or Biden. It’s just math. No one else has a chance at a majority before the convention.

[greytdemocrat]

3. Agreed.

[Garrett78]

2. There are only 2 candidates with sufficient support among key constituencies to be considered viable

That's just the reality. We aren't going to suddenly see Buttigieg or Klobuchar, for instance, garner substantial POC or youth support. That's simply not going to happen.

And Bloomberg's money isn't going to make him sustainably palatable to POC, youth, women, LGBTQ, etc. Especially if more and more people read the criminal complaint against him and his executives.

As soon as we started getting results from Nevada, this being a 2-person race was more than evident.

[squirecam]

4. Yep

This is actually a good thing.

One of them can hopefully win an outright majority. We don’t have to go through a contested convention.

[lynintenn]

28. As long as Bloomberg is in the race he can spend money to attack Trump.

He can help down-ballot races by keeping his field offices and staff. He has said no matter who wins the D primary, he will keep his offices open until Nov. 3. He will eventually endorse Biden and Niden needs his help. Bloomberg does not make a move without calculations.

[LanternWaste]

41. Let's go with your " Snowball effect: bad loss leads to bad loss..."

Let's go with your " Snowball effect: bad loss leads to bad loss, which leads to bad loss, which leads to collapse" prophecy, 'kay?

(time to move goalposts)

[rogerballard]

5. Great Point...

I will vote for the nominee no question, I do agree with your post. I will wait for super Tuesday. Here in Michigan our primary is March 10, we can now vote by absentee ballot. Let us wait until at least April 1, before we make predictions and decisions , anything can happen.

[Garrett78]

6. Most of the remaining candidates will have dropped out long before April 1.

[rogerballard]

7. Must have a Crystal Ball...

[Garrett78]

8. Don't need one. I've been following elections for a long time.

[Garrett78]

11. See post #2. This is just how these things go. Every time.

[rogerballard]

12. Sir Yes Sir

Every time post number 2 viewed sir yes sir !

[xmas74]

30. Super Tues is the line.

If they don't do well by ST they usually start dropping and jockeying for position via endorsement.

[lynintenn]

29. I don't see Bloomberg dropping out until after NY primary in April. 2nd to CA in delegates.

[StocktonNative]

9. Bernie will lead after Super Tuesday.

He's way popular in the general public. California is a lock.

[PuffedMica]

16. +1

[MrsCoffee]

18. Lol.

[cwydro]

33. I'm with you.

Lol.

[kurtcagle]

13. California is proprtional

I'm skeptical of Sanders doing as well in CA as he's currently polling. But more to the point, CA has proportional delegates. Even if Sanders does win, total delegates difference may be much smaller. I think two other factors may play in here. CoV19 will have an impact, and I think it will benefit Biden far more than Sanders.

[Celerity]

14. How would COVID-19 help Biden more? His voters skew far older, thus far more likely

to be affected by it in a serious way, (and thus perhaps less likely to venture out) plus, if the economy goes to shite, it really becomes a change election as the precariousness of certain systemic aspects of it becomes further exposed. That, unfortunately, feeds right into Bernie's core framing.

[mikelgb]

23. I think they were implying that virus fear-based voters would prefer a Biden over a Sanders n/t

[Celerity]

24. but they said Biden would benefit

I agree that Biden voters (due to their far older ages on average) have much more to fear from COVID-19, as they are far more likely to die from it than us younger (I am a Zennial (right on the Gen Z/Millennial borderline) born in 1996, so dead in the middle of the 18 to 30yo cohort in 2020) people, but that would seem to me, to IMPEDE their coming out to vote, which hurts Biden.

Either way, COVID-19 fear will have minimal impact, at least for the next 3 months or so, I would think.

[xmas74]

31. Maybe because he attracts older crowds,

The ones more likely to vote via absentee ballot?

[Celerity]

32. the deadlines for absentee ballots were before COVID-19 came truly to the fore nt

[dsc]

37. CA have vote by mail so they don't have to go out

[LanternWaste]

42. I think you're inferring rather than anyone else implying n/t, part II

[cwydro]

35. The older people I know are not going to be scared off from voting by this virus.

My mother went out to vote at age 90, though frail and undergoing chemo.

[kurtcagle]

40. Reasoning on Biden

California may very well go Sanders, though I have a feeling that the Undecideds likely have held off voting enough that it's not necessarily a slam dunk that early voting will sway the day. However, longer term, I still contend that Bernie does not benefit from Covid-19 as much as Biden will. First, for all that Sanders has the more progressive agenda, Biden simply has the experience of dealing with this kind of situation before, with the Ebola response. Biden has also been the voice of calm and reason throughout the election, and people respond to that far more than they necessarily respond to a given platform.

Something like Covid-19 is, to put it bluntly, scary. I am a 56 year old man who's had two heart attacks, and the thought that there's a virus out there with the primary symptom of reducing air-flow to the lungs and heart is a terrifying prospect to someone who lives daily with shortness of breath. I will want someone who I know is competent in charge, not necessarily someone who makes grandiose aspirations but has little experience in actually implementing those, because I am quite literally putting my life into that person's hands.

I voted for Sanders in the 2016 primaries. By the time the convention came around, I'd had a chance to see how his staff functioned, who he surrounded himself with, and how they reacted in a crisis. I was not impressed. I'm seeing the same thing this time around; he's not able to control his message, his agents have a cocky arrogance to them that reminds me very uncomfortably of Trump's appointees, and there's no humility to the man.

In 2008, we had a similar crisis going on. Bush was more or less AWOL as the stock market melted down, and Obama and John McCain were battling at after Obama secured the nomination. I was considering McCain, as I'm sure a lot of people were, but what made the difference for me was McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, which showed to me that McCain was not willing to buck his party if he needed to, and Obama essentially abandoning the campaign trail to meet with key people in government and Wall Street to turn things around. He showed real leadership, even at the cost of missing out on what could have been critical rallies.

I can see Biden doing that. He WAS doing that, right alongside Obama. McCain just looked lost, and I think that's what ultimately lost the election for him.

People my age remember that. They remember Obama rolling up his shirtsleeves and wading in, damn the consequences, remember Biden being there to act as Devil's advocate and executive officer. It's why I think that the Coronavirus will prove to be Biden's defining moment. It's possible Bernie will rise to the fore instead, but my read on him is that he's an ideologue, someone so fixated upon his vision that he fails to see the real problems around him, and that at the end of the day he will have trouble responding to the crises that test ANY president.

[honest.abe]

15. I think CA is not going to be a huge delegate gain for Sanders.

After last night most of Bloomberg’s support will go to Biden. Also many of the undecided and on the fence types willl now see Joe as the best candidate. That will change things dramatically. CA could be a wash.

[Peacetrain]

34. I think it will be too.. a very good haul of delegates for him

and that is with 35% of the vote.. he could take almost everything if it splits wrong..If Joe is viable and I hope he is and or more than 15% it will be a game changer .. major game changer for a number of campaigns.. as I understand it from listening to people who are better with these splits and percentages than I am..

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

17. Dumb question: If, after Super Tues., Amy, Pete, and/or Elizabeth drop out, ...

... what becomes of their delegates? Does the dropped candidate get to direct their votes? Are they free to vote for whoever they want? Are they locked out of the convention?

[Moderateguy]

19. They will be locked out...

There will be video of them banging on the doors asking to be let into the convention

[zackymilly]

21. Bloomberg will just bribe the doorman to let him in. n/g

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

39. No, Bloomberg will approach the doorman and start coughing.

It worked for him on Saturday Night Live, should work at the convention.

[Moderateguy]

20. Serious answer

If a candidate suspends their campaign instead of dropping out (most do that) they keep their delegates unless they release them. If they keep their delegates those delegates are pledged to vote for them on the first ballot if the candidate is on the ballot. If they are released they are free to vote their conscience

[Celerity]

25. +1

[underpants]

27. Thanks

That's what I thought.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

36. Thank you. Although, the vision of them banging on the door might be entertaining. nt

[dsc]

38. they go to the convention pledged to their candidate on the first ballot

unless they are released (as they will be if a candidate has a majority)

[many a good man]

22. LA County alone

LA County alone has a greater population than 41 states.

It gets real after Super Tuesday

[Me.]

26. Especially Not When They're Caucuses