Huh, despite SC, it seems Sanders is still the frontrunner!

[bluewater]

Huh.

Sanders 57
Biden 51
Buttigieg 26
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/delegate-count

Looking at Nevada and SC we can see why this is.

While Biden had a great SC Primary getting 77% of the assigned delegates, Sanders also had a big win in Nevada where he got 66% of the delegates.

Nevada:

Sanders 24 <--- 66% of Nevada Delegates.
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3

SC:

Biden 36 <-- 77% of SC delegates
Sanders 11

What does this mean going forward?

Well, Biden will obviously do well in states where African Americans make up 50-60% of the total primary voters.
In more demographically balanced states, his advantage will be less.

Sanders seems to over perform with Latinx voters, as shown by his win in Nevada. The SC primary exit polls show that Latinos made up only 2% of the voters yesterday, and that affected Sanders totals there.

On Super Tuesday, the electorates in the primary rich states of Texas and California more closely resemble Nevada than South Carolina, so expect Sanders to do well there.

But Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina will have a large % of voters be African American, so Biden should perform well in those states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/winning-super-tuesday-without-winning-states/ar-BB10AC07

Overall, I expect that Sanders will increase his lead in delegate on Super Tuesday significantly.

Time will tell.

[IluvPitties]

1. Momentum shift.

People are realizing Bernie is selling stuff most Americans will not want to buy. Expect Super Tuesday to be better than expected for Joe.

[Blue_true]

7. I agree that Biden will do a lot better than the polls, especially in Cali,

where the polls are likely overestimating Bernie's strength.

[Mike 03]

12. Exactly. Voters now understand that something is possible that didn't seem

quite so possible two weeks ago. A murky vista has sprung into clarity.

This will significantly change events moving forward.

[totodeinhere]

15. Maybe but there might not be enough time between now and Tuesday.

Biden, even after yesterday doesn't have enough money to adequately compete in big media heavy places like Texas and California. And with early voting in many of these states, many votes were already cast before the S.C. results were known.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Fade the Bern

before it's too late

[MrsCoffee]

3. Enjoy it while you can!

Super Tuesday is gonna be a rough day for Sanders and his supporters.

[Blue_true]

10. I tend to agree, especially in Cali and Texas.

Joe should win the purple and red smaller states, but it will be in Cali where he seriously damages Sanders' campaign.

[onetexan]

24. Ditto. Lots of last minute supporters holding out for the momentum of SC victory.

The momentum has picked up and it's full steam ahead. So has the contributions and senatorial support.

[Blue_true]

35. One overlooked factor is the NPP non vote in the presidential primary.

That is a huge downside for Bernie. My guess is Biden's poll numbers are way low and Bernie's overinflated.

A lot of Bernie supporters are talking up the Latino Bernie vote based upon NV results. Someone pointed out that SC Latinos went significantly for Biden. In 2016, Hillary was weak in NV among Latinos and Asians, but smoked Bernie in Cali, the reason maybe that either Cali Latinos are more moderate, or large numbers of them are NPP voters that can't pull a party presidential ballot.

[onetexan]

37. What is NPP? Agree re: NV Latinos. I saw on TV that a number of them interviewed said BS was the

only candidate who advertised in NV. Combined with a ground GOTV effort by the Bernie camp they did have a high Latino turnout. BUT i do think in CA & TX Latinos and elsewhere they will prefer Biden.

[Blue_true]

43. NPP in Cali is "No Party Preference".

It is the same thing as Unaffiliated in Florida, with the same result for presidential primary races, the "no party" voters can't vote. A lot of NPP people likely don't realize that they can't vote in the presidential primary, though the polls are capturing them like they can.

The Sanders campaign is complaining about NPP voters not being able to pull a party ballot, but he has been basically running for close to 3 and a half years, he should have had contingencies to inform those people to register as democrats by the deadline. His campaign seems to want to change existing systems to meet the Sanders campaigns particular interests at a point in time.

[onetexan]

45. Thank you for clarification and excellent explanation! One more qstn: Is NPP same as Independent?

[Blue_true]

50. NPP is the same as Indy. In Florida, Indies can't pull a party ballot, they can

vote on non partisan candidates and issues, and of course, they can vote on everything in November.

[OnDoutside]

56. I didn't realise California was a closed Primary, but delighted it is. I have never understood

non-registered voters being able to vote in a Democratic primary (well i sort of get that the parties don't want to alienate independent voters, but i think it's asking for trouble).

[Blue_true]

69. Someone pointed out, the Democratic Party will allow California NPP voters

to cast a vote in the Democratic Party primary, so in light of that, what is the Sanders camp complaining about? Do they want a fully open primary just for our party?

Florida is closed, if Indies don't register into the Democratic Party, their ballot is non-partisan only.

[greenjar_01]

4. rofl

[tarheelsunc]

5. The question isn't really if Bernie will have the delegate lead...

The question is, can he clear 50% on the first ballot? That will be much harder for him. He's been such a divisive candidate that there's no way he'd draw much support from other candidates' delegates on a second vote.

[Blue_true]

6. I believe that Biden is going to surprise in California and win Texas easily.

Polls in California likely are dramatically underestimating Biden, like they did Hillary in 2016. Asians are very large in Cali not so much in NV, that favors Biden. Plus the NPP voters can't pull a presidential primary ballot, that again favors Biden big.

In Texas, the big cities have abundant AA vote, that should pull Biden to the top in Texas, my belief is AA voters in Texas got their clue from SC and will turn out big for Biden.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Super Tuesday be a big disappointment for Bernie.

[squirecam]

9. Biden needs 15% in CA.

It’s about a 100 delegate difference.

[Blue_true]

18. The problem for Bernie in California is that his lead is being

seriously overestimated due to the NPP voters not being able to vote in the democratic primary. Polls are most likely capturing their candidate preference because they likely don't know that they can't vote for president. The dynamic is the same as in 2016, here polls underestimated Hillary's strength by around 17-20%, which makes sense given that NPP voters make up over 33% of voters in Cali. My guess, Biden easily passes the 15% threshold and ends up with 33-40% of the vote if Bloomberg doesn't factor in negatively for Biden - if information that people in Cali waited to file their ballots is correct, that is enormous good news for Biden, because if Bernie or Bloomberg were going to get their votes, they would have already filed them.

[totodeinhere]

19. Bernie won the Asian vote in Nevada. I don't see why it should be any different in California.

And the large Latino vote in Texas might help Bernie over the top in that state. Plus with early voting in many states the results of last night might not provide much momentum when so many had already voted before last night's results were known.

[Blue_true]

23. There is a very large AA vote in both Cali and Texas,

that was not present in NV. Hispanics in Texas and Cali don't seem to be the same as those in NV, the Cali and Texas Hispanics appear to go back more generations and are more moderate. Asians in Cali (at least the ones that I deal with) are also more moderate. Again, I believe that Biden is going to spring a massive surprise in Cali.

In Texas, all the big cities have large Black populations, led by Houston. It will come down to turnout in those places, if AA turn out like in SC, Biden is going to cruise to a win.

[totodeinhere]

26. Well we will probably see soon enough which one of us was correct and which one of us was

practicing wishful thinking.

[Blue_true]

28. It is only 2 days away now. nt

[underpants]

39. I agree. I do not see any mention of Bloomberg on this thread

He could take a bit bite out of Joe in California (I've read that elsewhere).
Joe winning yesterday goes a long way for Super Tuesday - people get behind a winner.

Bernie and Pete made a big splash in Iowa and New Hampshire because of their ground game. Highly motivated volunteers that put in a lot of time and hit every single spot. That's not possible across several states especially not the big ones like CA and Texas.

Bernie just isn't going to sell across large areas. Pete, great guy but sorry no not yet - we just aren't ready for THAT yet. Like it or not this "Socialism" thing is set. I mean Bernie WAS a Socialist at one point. His campaign will always be fighting a head wind. BUT if the Bernie Bros can't accept another loss we could lose a lot of ballast (see Wisconsin in 2016).

Bottom line is if it's Joe or Mike we have to have an AA woman on the ticket. Abrams brings the best turf with her but Kamala sells big time nationally. I mean big time.

[Blue_true]

49. One person posted on DU that AA turnout in 2016 General was down by 1 million.

That may be due to Russian efforts or that Hillary chose Tim Kaine instead of someone better known to AA voters. If you take that 1 million and slice it across the dates that Trump barely won, we would be talking about Hillary's reelection campaign now. My guess, this time that 1 million plus a lot more turn out, all indicators (2018, SC yesterday, are pointing to a lot of activation among AA voters).

[underpants]

54. I see the turnout bing down as mostly due to the media

telling everyone everyday that it was over. At least 50% of the explanation for 2016, to me, was the media.

You just aren't going to get turnout numbers near Obama levels. Having a AA woman on the ticket will do a lot of good though.

[Blue_true]

70. Weren't the SC turnout close to 2008 levels?

I am not sure that we won't see 2008 level turnout among AA, four years of Trump insures that, IMO. The great thing is Trump maxed his vote in 2016, so there is not much upside for him. Also the Bernie or bust vote will likely not be needed with more AA turning out, so our platform should reflect that.

[squirecam]

8. Bernie will lead after Super Tuesday due to CA.

That lead will be reduced after Georgia and Florida vote.

[bluewater]

13. What's interesting is that Sanders totals did not decline much

538 still projects Sanders getting 1700+ delegates.

It seems the longer the primary stays a mult-candidate race, as opposed to a two candidate race, the more that helps Sanders.

[squirecam]

17. As of today

538 shows Sanders at 1645 and Biden at 1352.

As the total pledged delegates are 4051, this makes Bernie at 40% and Biden at 33%.

[bluewater]

20. Yes. they LITERALLY Updated that in the last 30 minutes it seems.

Seriously. I posted 538's totals in another post less than an hour ago and they had Sanders up by 400 delegates.

But, Yep, it's a 300 delegate lead now.

It will be intersting to see what 538's model projects after Super Tuesday.

[squirecam]

22. If Super Tuesday has mixed results, the forecast should continue to increase

The chance of no one getting a majority.

Sanders obviously needs everyone but him to be non-viable in CA. If it’s only two, he’d rather it be him and Warren. Sanders and Biden being viable would be worse for him, and Sanders, Warren and Biden all being viable statewide would be worst for him.

Biden needs to win the southern primaries. A big help for him would be winning Texas. He also needs Amy to win MN and somehow hope Warren gets MA.

[Blue_true]

71. If Super Tuesday produces mixed results or Biden behind by a couple hundred delegates, the advantage

shifts massively to Biden. Bernie would have used up his best states, except for Oregon, Washington, maybe Michigan, maybe Rhode Island, maybe Indiana and the small population plains states. Biden will have Florida, Georgia, Lousiana, Illinois, NY State, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Conneticutt, Delaware, Maryland, and DC, all which should significantly favor him. If Biden comes out ahead on Super Tuesday, it is over for Bernie.

[dsc]

11. So I assume you now acknowledge that Pete won Iowa

[bluewater]

16. Of course he did. But it's been downhill for Pete since then.

It's been downhill for Pete since Iowa.

A tie in delegates in NH, then loses in Nevada and SC.

He's not projected to do well on Super Tuesday, but, hey, who knows.

As the old saying goes... "That's why they play the ball games."

Time will tell.

And good luck to you and your preferred candidate on Super Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see if Warren or Buttigieg get more delegates that day, but both are projected to be down in the 3rd and 4th slots.

[dsc]

21. the vast majority of Sanders supporters were saying otherwise

so just checking for the record.

[bluewater]

30. I wish Buttigieg was doing better. Warren too.

But the voting results are what the voting results are.

[lapucelle]

34. Indeed they are. More voters have voted for Biden than for BS.

[bluewater]

40. yeah... but there is this thing coming up... it's called...

SUPER TUESDAY!!!!!!!

lol

35% of the total delegates will be assigned that day and VASTLY more people will have voted.

I would be glad to discuss the popular vote on Wednesday, if you would want to.

[lapucelle]

48. There is this thing coming up called the convention, and if no candidate has the majority

of delegates at that point, then nonviable candidates will release their delegates to consolidate around the candidate who can win the majority on the second, or third, or fourth ballot.

Even though superdelegates like BS, Nina Turner, Ocasio Cortez, and Tlaib are unlikely to give their support to Biden (a unity candidate who can beat Trump and protect down ballot Democrats), a broad coalition of Democrats will do the right thing in the best interest of the country.

[Vivienne235729]

14. But of the small hispanic population in SC, a large % went for Biden

That's interesting to watch on the latino vote. Hopefully it woll continue to trend the same way in states w a larger latino population.

[Blue_true]

25. Hispanics in Florida, across the sub-ethnicities are more moderate

than those in other states. Since Hispanics and Asians in Cali are multi-generational, they will likely be more moderate, same in Texas. I expect Biden to have a very good day on Tuesday.

[jimfields33]

29. In southern Florida yes

But central will definitely be sanders. North and west Florida not sure.

[Blue_true]

38. I live in north central Florida. Hispanics in my area are very much moderate.

I have relatives that live around Orlando, the Black population there is very large, so even if the Hispanics there are more tuned to Bernie, the Black vote will neutralize theirs (I doubt that they favor Bernie since there is a very large number of Cubans in that mix).

[FloridaBlues]

27. I believe Biden will do very well on Tuesday.

[Demsrule86]

31. You needed to post this twice...six delegate lead...and underwater on the popular vote...the

momentum is with Joe...Joementum.

[bluewater]

33. Time will Tell. And THAT time is THIS Tuesday!

Super Tuesday is in TWO days.

Good luck to all the candidates and their supporters (except Bloomberg).

[lapucelle]

32. Joe's winning the popular vote. More people have voted for Biden than for BS.

[bluewater]

36. um, the nominee is selected based on delegate totals. lol

But you knew that.

But, tell you what, after Super Tuesday we can discuss popular vote totals that mean something.

35% of the total delegates will be assigned that day and VASTLY more people will have voted.


Good luck to you and our preferred candidate.

[lapucelle]

42. Yes, I know. And if no candidate has the majority of delegates on the first ballot,

then candidates will release their delegates to consolidate around the candidate who can win the majority on the second, or third, or fourth ballot.

Even though superdelegates like BS, Nina Turner, Ocasio Cortez, and Tlaib are unlikely to give their support to Biden (a unity candidate who can beat Trump and protect down ballot Democrats), a broad coalition of Democrats will do the right thing in the best interest of the country.

[bluewater]

44. So, now you are saying popular vote totals don't mean anything? Ok lol

OK...

You are the person that brought up popular vote totals, not me.

lol

[lapucelle]

51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.

Last edited Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:04 PM - Edit history (1)

Let's review:
1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS. (i.e. Biden is currently winning in the popular vote.)
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.

[bluewater]

55. Oh, so you DROPPED the whole popular vote thing. I see.

No problem.

As I said, you were the one that brought up the popular vote totals, not me.

[lapucelle]

57. Wait...what? It's the first thing on a three item list.

lapucelle (10,180 posts)
51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.

Let's review:

1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS.
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.

****************************************************************************************

Oh, I see. Some people might not know that "having more votes" is the same thing as "leading in the popular vote". I edited to clarify for anyone who might be confused by the concept.

Original version with no edits.

51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.

Let's review:

1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS.
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.

On edit:

51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.

Let's review:

1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS. (i.e. Biden is currently winning in the popular vote.)
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.

[bluewater]

58. Seems like a disjointed list. What does the popular vote after 4 states have to do with anything?

Seems like you are just tacking that on as item #1 for some reason.

What does the popular vote after just the first four states have to do with the Convention?

Honestly, it seems like you are trying to pivot away from your first popular vote comment.

[lapucelle]

59. Pivot away from it by listing it as fact along with two other facts and an inference

about the importance of coalition-building?

[bluewater]

60. Yep, definitely pivoting away and just tacking it onto a list.

But please, do explain what the popular vote after the first 4 states has to do with the Convention.

I think this is the third time I am asking this question.

I will wait right here.

[lapucelle]

61. And you've gotten your answer more than once.

Anyone who doesn't understand, should re-read and then think a bit.

No one is entitled to have the obvious clarified over and over without trying harder on their own.

[bluewater]

63. You think the popular vote after the first 4 states MATTERS at the Convention? Um, no.

That's QUITE the extrapolation from scant results if your argument is THAT shows a long term trend.

Honestly, that seems like such a stretch that I wanted to be absolutely certain that was the argument you actually tried to make.

Apparently, it is.

Wow.

Hey, opinions are like gall bladders, everyone has one and you are entitled to yours.

Thanks for the discussion.

[lapucelle]

52. If BS wins the majority of the total number of delegates at the end of the primaries,

he will be the nominee.

Otherwise, it's a brokered convention where coalition-building wil be the key to the nomination.

It's probably at that point that people will finally recognize that iconoclasm and name-calling is a losing platform.

[Laelth]

41. Without a doubt, Bernie is going to rack up delegates on Super Tuesday.

Bernie's five-year-old campaign is well-poised to kick the snot out of even the best one-year-old campaign running against it. He has been courting the Latino vote for years, and it's going to show on Super Tuesday.

For better or for worse ...



-Laelth

[OhZone]

46. Wow! Biden is only 6 delegates behind?

[empedocles]

47. The key is who is better at the anti trump vote

Not really much of a policy debate.

[uponit7771]

62. +1, Sanders 3 month swing state numbers vs Trump are worse than Biden's, socialism doesn't help

[brutus smith]

53. When was the last time a Dem won South Carolina in a Presidential election?

Jimmy Carter I believe. 40+ years ago. We will see what happens in states where Dems have won recently.

[George II]

64. Doesn't matter. A candidate in November will run in FIFTY states.

[ehrnst]

68. Yes, but people seem to be gripping on this talking point for comfort. (nt)

[ehrnst]

67. The record of SC primary Dem winners who went on to get the nomination would be more relevant.

1992 (March 7): Bill Clinton (63%), Paul Tsongas (18%), Tom Harkin (7%), Jerry Brown (6%), uncommitted (3%), and others (2%)[8]
1996: Primary cancelled
2000 (March 9): Al Gore (92%) and Bill Bradley (2%)[9]
2004 (February 3): John Edwards (45%), John Kerry (30%), Al Sharpton (10%), Wesley Clark (7%), Howard Dean (5%), and Joe Lieberman (2%)[10]
2008 (January 26): Barack Obama (55%), Hillary Clinton (27%), and John Edwards (18%)[11]
2012 (January 28): Barack Obama (unopposed)
2016 (February 27): Hillary Clinton (73%) and Bernie Sanders (26%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_primary

[Odoreida]

65. All it really means is that it's not over yet. n/t

[George II]

66. Interesting, coming out of Iowa Sanders was behind 12 to 14 (14%) but he declared himself...

...to be the "front runner". Now he's ahead 57 to 53 (7%) so wouldn't that make Biden the "front runner"?