Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWTF! 538's Delegate Projection still shows Sanders in the lead?
Ok, I don't know what to say about 538 and their wildly gyrating Delegate Projections...
When Sanders won Nevada, getting 66% of the delegates, 538 projected him ahead by 700 delegates!
Now Biden had a superb SC primary getting 77% of the delegates and yet 538 STILL has Sanders projected to get more delegates.
Over 400 hundred more in fact!
Biden 1292
Bloomberg 568
Warren 196
Buttigieg 159
Klobuchar 62
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
SO, what can we expect after Super Tuesday, another wild gyration in 538's model?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jmg257
(11,996 posts)it will be a closer Sanders lead than originally expected (after Nevada), close enough that super-delegates can 'justifiably' give the nomination to Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
caraher
(6,278 posts)plus I'm sure their previous projections already had Biden with most of those delegates.
What happened yesterday wasn't really anything surprising. Biden did somewhat better than expected but not shockingly so
And yes, I do think you'll see some more wild swings. The model is very "twitchy" because of how fine-grained it tries to be, and the input data are both sparse and volatile. I put very little faith in it at this stage.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
underpants
(182,574 posts)There's a long way to go.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)which includes a number of recent polls, Sanders still is projected to get more delegates. This is based on things like Sanders's current polling in California. However, th polls have changed after each state win in favor of whomever won each state.
So, as new polls come in, if they reflect movement in Biden's direction, 538's projections will move accordingly. Rome wasn't built in a day, and 538's projections will not completely change overnight.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Codeine
(25,586 posts)hes going to have a very good day on Tuesday, so its still reasonable to assume hes the frontrunner at the moment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
underpants
(182,574 posts)Bernie 1635
Joe 1352
Not sure how it works but I'd think that's Pete's projected 158 will go to Bernie and Warren and Amy's combined 260 will go to Joe once those three drop out.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Is now the clear favorite in the forecast.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
drray23
(7,615 posts)He is closer to being a moderate than espousing Sander's views.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
I was basing that on the age of his supporters or at least my take on them as a group.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PTWB
(4,131 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
underpants
(182,574 posts)That's just my perception of things.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PTWB
(4,131 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,886 posts)Cutting Sanders's delegate lead by more than 100.
Yet for some reason you used the old numbers, and still haven't changed them...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,968 posts)Even before the South Carolina primary, Biden was projected to win it. The forecasting was already assuming he would almost certainly win SC. That's what happened. He won it by a large margin, so that skewed the odds a bit more in his favor, but fundamentally, there wasn't a huge change in the variables.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden