Throw out all Super Tuesday polls prior to yesterday

[DrToast]

They are very much outdated now. Many people will coalesce to Biden now that it’s becoming a two person race.

I’m not saying it’ll be enough to win, say, California. But Biden will outperform Super Tuesday polls now.

[TwilightZone]

1. 538 was already showing Biden trending up in several ST states before SC.

Those trends will be jump-started now. As you noted, we'll see if there's enough time for it to matter.

[George II]

2. Yes indeed. Biden was ahead in most states until the NH primary, where he lost....

Many of them flipped to Sanders.

As they say, it's a whole new ballgame.

[DownriverDem]

28. Many

Sanders supporters are politically naive. Congress will never give Sanders what he would need for his programs. Go Joe!

[tblue37]

3. Check this out--explanation for the point you make:

Interesting take on Biden's chances going forward:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287605142

[DrToast]

4. Agree. You even see it on DU

Biden up to 18%.

[IronLionZion]

17. The moderate candidates were dividing the moderate vote before

while liberals united around Bernie. Now more moderates are uniting around Joe.

[AGeddy]

5. Correct. Any poll taken before yesterday is meaningless. The ground has shifted.

[LakeArenal]

6. No polls are accurate.

No one I know has answered or take any poll. If they keep polling the same people how can that be accurate.

We have Op Chaos working against all of the candidates.

[Dopers_Greed]

7. The polls also said that Biden could underperform in SC

[Laelth]

8. That seems likely (Biden outperforming the polls on ST).

But Bernie's still gonna pull the highest number of delegates, and Bloomberg isn't dropping out.

This thing is far from over.

-Laelth

[mwooldri]

9. Polls schmolls.

Plus early voting means there's a lot of votes in the bag already. I don't know how many vote on actual election day as opposed to prior, but those who voted early would not have been influenced by the SC primary result - they already voted.

Though it is looking a lot like a two horse race now - Joe or Bernie.

[DrToast]

11. Most people that early vote aren't changing their minds

So they’re not the people that would be influenced by SC anyway. But there’s still a lot of people out there that will be.

[AlexSFCA]

21. they do

I voted early for Pete but had I waited, I’d vote for Biden today in CA.

[grantcart]

10. Agree

[bsiebs]

12. I know it will not likely turn around the final primary vote in California...

... but I have refocused my commitment to actually wining the general election.. while my heart is still with Warren... I have to go with Joe...

[Frances]

14. I agree

I will vote Biden though I also liked other candidates too
My consolation about Warren is that if we can get a Dem president and Dem senate, she will be able to attain some of her goals
Should Biden or Bernie get the nomination the Dem party should push hard for a Dem senate

[StevieM]

13. I hope you are right. But here is my main concern:

A lot of people still get their news from the weekday local nightly news. Or from the weekday morning shows. Or from weekday radio news programs during drive time. And I worry that there are plenty of voters who have not taken in this story.

[pnwmom]

15. Except many people have already voted. nt

[Quixote1818]

25. Yes, like 3 million people I believe. nt

[stopbush]

29. Yep. I early voted in CA over a week ago.

[Kurt V.]

16. i'd say this is true. it also speaks to how powerful our social environment is to decision making.

[JGug1]

18. Biden On Super Tuesday

He is going to have to out perform by a lot to sustain an argument that he can win the nomination. Bernie must NOT be disallowed based on the second vote at the convention, if at all possible. His people will bolt if they believe he has been screwed with badly.

[bobbieinok]

20. Anyone else get feeling now and then that Bernie people are trying to blackmail yhe primary voters?

You do what we say or we walk!

[mdelaguna]

30. Yes. Been hearing that too.

[usaf-vet]

31. If Bernie's people "bolt" they are not willing to deal with the REAL PROBLEM ... TRUMP!

Are they not willing to make the same commitment that a lot if not most DUers have made.....

Vote Blue no matter Who.

I would prefer Warren but it doesn't look possible this time.

Trump HAS TO GO!

No Democrat can stay home if their candidate isn't on the ticket.

[somaticexperiencing]

19. I'm in California, and I'm definitely voting for Joe.

Formerly a Bernie supporter.

[jmowreader]

22. Sanders has one big problem in California

California already has very high taxes, because California takes care of its people and that takes money. The Sanders agenda is to tax the living shit out of everyone, so at some point even the most altruistic among us have to say, “enough is enough.”

[ucrdem]

23. Californnia usually votes in June

meaning the usual early voters including myself weren't necessarily ready for this one. Plus there are the usual local races, bonds, brand-new rule changes, and now Census information so as usual the CA ballot is long and complicated AND early. So I predict early voting won't be as extensive as in 2016 for example.

Meaning, I think Biden will do much better than predicted here once the votes are all counted, and that won't be finished for several weeks.

[Quixote1818]

24. Regular folks who don't live and breath politics don't know it's a two person race

So I think Bloomberg is still going to get quite a lot of votes.

[bucolic_frolic]

26. Right on the money

This is now shifting. The changes over the last 8 days will be seen in the next polls and on Tuesday.

[brooklynite]

27. Yes but...

A lot of Super Tuesday early votes are already baked in.

[ucrdem]

32. roughly 2.7 mil or 10% in Calif by Thursday

and that's going by 2016 turnout. Tuesday's turnout might be bigger, and SC was yesterday and widely discussed, so I think Biden will far exceed predictions.