Biden's surprise ray of hope in California

[RandySF]

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Despite his weak polling in California, there’s a silver lining emerging for Joe Biden in the biggest delegate prize on the board next week.

Biden’s weakness after a distant second finish in Nevada could have compelled Californians who have been voting since the Iowa caucuses to support a moderate alternative who was doing better at the time. But there's a big upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven't voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.

Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters to date from the last two California presidential primaries. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the last five elections.

“People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”

These so-called “perfect” Democratic voters dropped from 57% turnout by this point in 2008, and 62% turnout in 2016, to 46% turnout so far this year, according to the data compiled and shared by Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. That means Biden, coming off South Carolina, has more room to expand his support before Tuesday.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/joe-biden-california-primary-118371

[LizBeth]

1. Good to hear. The down side with early voting.

[jaysunb]

2. This describes me. n/t

[zackymilly]

3. I just noticed Biden's support on DU went from 17% to 18% today. Woot! n/t

[Cha]

4. And, of course, it's 19% now.