Joe passes the viability point in new California poll

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20

[cilla4progress]

1. Violability?

Or viability?

[bobGandolf]

29. Great contribution

[TexasTowelie]

2. If the numbers are correct that would give Bernie a 92 delegate margin in California.

That also does not consider any affect that Buttigieg's withdrawal would have or the fact that Bernie underperforms compared to his poll numbers. Biden should be able to offset that margin with strong performances in southern states on Super Tuesday and in the second round of primaries in the South later in March.

[highplainsdem]

3. 538's forecast currently has Biden getting only about 80 fewer delegates out of CA than Sanders.

And Biden will do better than Sanders in a lot of other states.

[UncleNoel]

4. Over 20! And good for Liz!

Biden is going to rack up a second surge on ST.
no

[ucrdem]

5. Here we go

Tuesday will be even better.

Woo hoo!

[highplainsdem]

6. Btw, 2/3 of those poll results were from before Biden's landslide victory in SC. So that will

be greatly underestimating his support.

[oasis]

7. Some rabidly uncivil folks are going to have a sad about this.

[ucrdem]

10. My heart is breaking

[fallout87]

8. Biden at just over half of what Bernie is polling at

Nothing to write home about.

[Demsrule86]

19. It denies sanders a big lead.

[onetexan]

21. exactly, and with more states primaries to go that lead will be overcome

Bernie Bros need to wake up to this hard fact and hold off on the gloating. It ain't over till it's over, and much too soon to speculate otherwise.

[karynnj]

42. Bernie got less than half of Biden in SC -- however that is not the point either

Last week, polls began to suggest that it is was very possible that no one except Bernie would pass the 15% threshold. The many other candidates were splitting the no Biden votes into pieces too small to get delegates. Bernie at around 40% would get ALL the delegates.

In a strange way, this is like 2008. Going into an even bigger SuperTuesday, with some of the same states - some different, Hillary polled ahead in almost all the states - including CA, MA, NY, and NJ. Not just ahead - but in many states, Hillary's team led by Mark Penn thought she would get 100% of the CA vote. After the Kerry/Caroline Kennedy/Ted Kennedy sequence of endorsements starting after NH (Kerry) followed by the Kennedy ones after SC, Obama surged.

He still lost those big states - but he lost them 40/60 -- nowhere near the polls were before. That meant that the delegate difference was balanced by Obama winning the caucuses that day which HRC ignored. Nothing is ever the same between two elections, but what happened this last weekend may be seen to have changed the dynamic in the same way. Like HRC, a week ago, it would have been reasonable to forecast that Bernie could pull off a huge delegate advantage - including all of California's.

So, though Bernie is very likely to gain the most delegates tomorrow, it could be an amount that Biden would have a shot at overcoming. (Ironically, if that happens, Biden might be the one with the plurality, not the majority of pledged delegates.)

[Zeus69]

9. You're missing the point(s)

[bobGandolf]

30. What point?

Please explain.

[Amishman]

47. The poll was 2/28 to 3/1

It doesn't factor in the massive events of the past few days. Biden is almost certainly going to go well over that 21% mark.

If Harris does indeed endorse Biden today, CA will be very close.

[Dem2]

11. What did chumbo head say last night?

Kornacki I think - that hitting viability could made about a 100 delegate difference?

That's pretty big in this race.

Also, he was 14% in the poll they were using. A 7 point jump, if real, is huge.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

12. Needs more Warren, more Biden.

[blue-wave]

13. Joe will finish in California even higher!!

[SiliconValley_Dem]

15. I agree

[onetexan]

22. second that, especially now with Steyer & Buttigieg now ending their campaigns it's much more likely

[DarthDem]

27. Agreed!

I think things may be just about to turn around.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

14. Almost as important, so does Warren

[writes3000]

16. I just mailed in my CA ballot for Joe!

[Qutzupalotl]

17. Feb. 28-March 1 -- before, during and after SC

So the swing to Joe will be more pronounced than seen here.

And with Pete out, Joe will get a good chunk of his voters.

[bobGandolf]

18. Bloomberg 11% Klobuchar 5% Gabbard 1%

All the above need to withdraw from the race.

[Demsrule86]

20. Klobachar needs to stay in so she denies sanders votes in Minnesota.

Bloomberg needs to go after Tuesday if not before.

[bobGandolf]

31. Good point

Forgot about her beneficial aspect for Joe.

[Demsrule86]

35. Not anymore. Hope her endorsement moves voters toward Biden.

[beachbumbob]

23. the reality of a sanders nominee is finally breaking thru to many voters who see

certain defeat come Nov. I will be surprise the gap in vote between Biden and sanders would be more than 8-10% in California. Sanders is doing himself no good with bashing TRUE democrats

[bobGandolf]

32. Amen!

[PTWB]

40. The same statements were said in 2016 and look how that turned out.

People were predicting that Bernie would lose badly and that Hillary was nearly certain to win...

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. Whoever is our Nominee should get our full support, even if it is Bernie.

[beachbumbob]

46. sanders did lose, badly is all objective but at the money he spent to lose, it was bad.

Any long time political observer knows the score IF sanders is the nominee and outcome prospects for the general election is shattered.

There is idealism and there is ignorance and its even worse when its both wrapped together.

[FloridaBlues]

24. I figured biden would go up in polling in Ca

[treestar]

25. Still the Bernie numbers are insane

from a state that got the most negative attention from the Dotard, why vote in a D nominee that the Dotard will beat?

[True Blue American]

26. I heard this morning

That all those polls were before the S.C. vote.

Did I hear that Pete gave his delegates to Biden?

[blue-wave]

28. From your statement

It sounds to me as though:

You are not "undecided" but are staunch Bernie

You are not a Democrat

You agree that Bernie is not a Democrat

And you agree with Bernie's attacks on the Democratic Party


This is a Democratic Primary, thank you. We vote for true blue Democrats here. Democrats have been winning against republiCons for many decades. They will continue to win well into the future. But thank you for your concern.

[bobGandolf]

33. Something smells

I do not understand what you are saying.

[Codeine]

34. He's saying that the Bernie numbers

seem ridiculously high for a candidate that Trump will paste in November, especially considering how poorly Trump has treated California.

[JCMach1]

36. This is surge is as much about COVID-19 as anything else

It may well be enough to get Biden the nomination

There is nothing Sanders can do for people conflating Biden and Obama in their minds when they think of someone/bureaucracy in charge of the crisis.

[MineralMan]

37. How so, pray tell?

[JCMach1]

38. The last 7 days or so the playing field has shifted... economic revolution/security

takes a back seat to existential angst/survival/fear.

People equate cool bureaucratic competence with the Obama administration. Biden benefits greatly from that.. so much so I expect him to majorly overperform on Tuesday.

CA is one of the hardest hit states so far.

Things may shift again, but I think Sanders' odds of getting the nomination are now much lower even than the pundits are saying.

[MineralMan]

39. Well, maybe. However, I think the COVID-19 thing is a separate

issue from the primary race, altogether.

It's an issue, but may turn out not to be the pivotal one.

[JCMach1]

41. Never misunderestimate Americans having a freakout

[Moderateguy]

43. Do you honestly blame people for thinking Biden would be better in a crisis than Sanders?

Crisis requires people to work together to solve it and Bernie keeps showing great reluctance towards working with anyone.

[JCMach1]

44. Reality, any speculation is hypothetical... But also reality, Biden has more experience

working crises and benefits from his partnership with Obama.

In politics, perception is everything. Just my analysis, not trying to slight anyone.

We are literally back to the who do you trust on the 3AM phone call question... except worse, because we are in the midst of a real crisis.

[Moderateguy]

45. You're right

Perception is everything. As a former VP it is reasonable to assume that he’s helped Obama deal with a multitude of crises. And Bernie’s perception is that he does not work well with others— even though I don’t believe, even for a second, that a President Bernie would hesitate to work with and seek advice from the top specialists to solve any crisis