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Democratic Primaries
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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off.
Its hard to avoid thinking of Bloombergs bid as a kind of political science experiment a test of whether an elderly, extraordinarily wealthy ex-Republican can run a competitive campaign almost entirely on the basis of his own advertising and a big, generously paid staff. That experiment will play out across the country this week, when Bloomberg will finally appear on the ballot after a bizarre campaign in which he entered the race late, skipped the four early states and focused instead on winning the trove of delegates that await on Super Tuesday.
And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloombergs strategy. Hes invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the states large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.
His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried and failed to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, well know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether Californias unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaires candidacy.
Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloombergs swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloombergs spending has bought him notoriety, but hasnt translated into widespread enthusiasm.
And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloombergs strategy. Hes invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the states large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.
His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried and failed to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, well know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether Californias unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaires candidacy.
Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloombergs swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloombergs spending has bought him notoriety, but hasnt translated into widespread enthusiasm.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-bet-big-on-california-it-might-not-pay-off/
If Bloomberg's big bet fails in California, Biden will likely be the beneficiary, and not just in California but in other states where Bloomberg was polling high. It does appear the stars are aligning for a big day for Biden tomorrow.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off. (Original Post)
honest.abe
Mar 2020
OP
If Bloomberg does poorly tomorrow, he needs to drop out and join the others in backing Biden.
TwilightZone
Mar 2020
#3
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)1. Let's hope not. NT
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
lapfog_1
(29,198 posts)2. nobody is voting for Mike
and only his paid promoters are left trying to cheer lead for the boss.
At least that is my humble opinion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopbush
(24,393 posts)6. I've been voting since 1972, and I early voted for Mike here in CA.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,454 posts)3. If Bloomberg does poorly tomorrow, he needs to drop out and join the others in backing Biden.
I suspect he will, especially if Joe also has a good day.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,650 posts)4. Yes, I suspect you are correct.
Despite all of his negatives, he is clearly a smart man and will do the smart thing at that point.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopbush
(24,393 posts)7. It all depends what Bloomberg sees as doing poorly.
His strategy is obviously to win some delegates and stay in it if theres a brokered convention.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,454 posts)8. Agreed.
It's relative, of course. He's a smart guy and has tons of analytical people on staff, so I suspect he has some thresholds in mind already.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)5. I still hope he is viable in CA along with Liz
Splitting the pie 4 ways in CA is much better than 2 ways...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided