BTRTN Super Tuesday Preview: Bernie Wins Big, But Biden Keeps it More Than Close Enough

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers has just released its predictions for the Super Tuesday primaries, with projections for vote and delegate allocation in each state contest, and provided perspective on how the results will shape the race going forward:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-super-tuesday-preview-bernie-wins.html

Excerpts: "The key question for Super Tuesday is a simple one: how big a bounce will Joe Biden receive, by virtue of his mammoth win in South Carolina? Because this, in turn, will define the size of the lead Bernie Sanders will have, and that, in turn, will dictate whether it is all over (if that gap is huge) or whether Biden has a chance to make it a race over the balance of the primary season, or at the convention, if it’s close enough...
"It would be hard for Warren or Bloomberg to look at these results and come away with any valid rationale to carry on. Biden’s doubling of Bloomberg’s totals essentially undercuts the reason Bloomberg got into the race. Sanders’ more than doubling Warren’s totals speaks for itself... We could (and should) be down to a two-person race by Wednesday morning...
"Can Biden catch up, or keep Sanders under the 1,991 first-ballot-win threshold in a two-person race? Facing only a gap of 150 or fewer delegates coming out of Super Tuesday, and a tighter field, the answer is almost certainly a resounding yes. I’ve run models out the rest of the primary season, making assumptions on areas of strength for Sanders (New England, out west), and Biden (the South, Delaware, Pennsylvania) and Biden can indeed keep Bernie under the 1,991 threshold and also keep him reasonably close...But if Sanders significantly outperforms the BTRTN expectations tomorrow, winning some of Biden’s states and widening the gap in California, it is a much different picture."
"Here are the BTRTN headlines on the outcomes..."

[TwilightZone]

1. That seems way more optimistic for Sanders than 538's predictions.

538's forecast is around 508 delegates for Sanders vs. the 550 BTRTN is forecasting.

[tgards79]

2. 541 versus 508, not that far actually, given all the uncertainty