Are we looking at Wisconsin/Michigan/PA all wrong?

[thesquanderer]

Interesting perspective this past Saturday night from former Hillary Clinton staffer Jess Mcintosh:

JESS MCINTOSH, FORMER DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS OUTREACH, HILLARY CLINTON CAMPAIGN:

Democrats have spent way too much time on these 77,000 voters that we lost in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania...And Michigan...I care a lot more about the million black people that stayed home than the 77,000 people who looked real hard at Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and chose Donald Trump. I think the million that stayed home are easier to turn out for us in 2020.

I think she may have been talking about 2008, but the idea is still relevant. In these three states, I believe about a half million 2012 Obama voters (all ethnic groups combined) didn't come out to vote for anyone in 2016. These aren't people who never vote, these are people who are willing to vote but just weren't sufficiently motivated in 2016. Maybe it would be easier to get just 20% of them to come out for us this time, then to get people who chose Trump to switch.

I'm not saying to focus on one strategy to the exclusion of the other, but we seem to always talk about winning back the Trump "defectors", and never about the much bigger number of previous Dem voters who just stayed home.

Do we have a candidate who can light that fire, at least 20% as brightly as Obama did?

[AGeddy]

1. Based on turnout in SC...which reached 2008 levels... it looks like...

...Joe Biden is reassembling the Obama Coalition.

[msongs]

4. as compared to the eternal party of one lol nt

[denem]

8. Joe Biden is NOT reassembling the Obama Coalition

The Obama Coalition was Black voters, young voters, college educated whites.
Biden's Coalition is Black votes, older votes, high school or less whites.

[AGeddy]

9. Biden is winning among black voters, college-educated whites.

Just not among young voters. Which are the least-reliable voters, and smallest group, that exists.

[denem]

12. Biden is stronger with non college-educated whites.

Biden has a coalition that does not include young people. Whatever you call it, it is not the 'Obama Coalition'.

[Demsrule86]

2. Biden brought out Obama level voters in Carolina...and AA voters are very important in the Blue Wall

States. No one left in the race except Biden can win the AA vote in great numbers.

[squirecam]

3. No.

It sucks. But no.

Obama was that once in a generation politician. No one running will get the numbers he did. The closest would be Biden, who has the respect and loyalty of the AA community.

But we need the midwest. That’s why I want Amy as VP.

[brush]

10. Can't have an all-white ticket if you want to get those voters back. Sorry.

[squirecam]

15. Biden brings the AA vote.

Amy bring the midwest women vote.

It’s a win-win.

If Biden needed help with AA voters, he wouldn’t have done so well in South Carolina.

[brush]

16. Re-read my post. It's not smart to shut POCs out. Harris or Abrams...

bring women votes too. Amy would be a good AG.

[Cal Carpenter]

5. Here is a related analysis from Ibram Kendi

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/moderates-cant-win-white-house/606985/

It is long but quite interesting. I am a big fan of Kendi's books.

Here is an excerpt:

My fears are rooted in what the doctrine of the electable moderate conveniently misses: the crucial importance of the other swing voter in swinging elections in the 21st century. The traditional, white swing voter oscillates between voting Republican and Democrat—the be-all and end-all for moderate Democrats. Some Americans never vote. But I worry about the other swing voter, the one who swings between voting Democrat and not voting (or voting third party).

Despite all the talk of the 6 million Obama-to-Trump voters winning the election for Trump, more Obama voters in 2012 swung to not voting (4.4 million) or voting third party (2.3 million) in 2016. These other swing voters were more likely to be younger and people of color—and especially young black people. Today, they are likely to favor progressive candidates. They are likely to be turned off by moderate candidates, turned off by the records of Biden, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Senator Amy Klobuchar on issues of race and gender.

Lots more at the link.

[brush]

14. That conventional wisdom did not happen in SC. Sorry.

[TwilightZone]

18. His assertions don't fit the evidence.

We picked up 41 seats in the House in 2018, and the vast majority of them were won by moderate candidates. Sanders-affiliated candidates, Justice Democrats, and the like, for the most part, did very poorly.

He uses 2000, 2004 and 2016 as "proof" of his theory, but we won the popular vote twice in those elections, 2000 was determined by a few hundred votes in Florida, there are still questions about Ohio from 2004, and Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 and lost thanks to a fraction of one percent in three states.

Not at all convincing.

As for his turnout argument, SC kind of blew that one out of the water.

[guillaumeb]

6. Many non-white voters were purged from the rolls in Wisconsin.

Especially in Milwaukee and Madison.

[Meadowoak]

7. James Comey cost HRC at least 77,000 votes a few days before the election.

[StevieM]

11. He cost her a lot more than that, and that was on top of the damage that he did with

his ridiculous July press conference.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I always believe in preference not turnout

James Comey impacted preference, not turnout. That's the easiest way to look at it. When you take a voter from one camp and switch to another, than is a net swing of two. Lotsa luck making up that net of two with your magical turnout.

The numbers and the rationalization regarding turnout always look much easier than the real world reality. When there is voter enthusiasm or lack of same it is felt by both sides. In 2016 we had the two most unpopular candidates in history opposing each other. That led to far greater number of late swing voters than the norm, and logically suppressed turnout.

If Hillary were more popular then her 6 point lead would have been robust and not impacted by the Comey letter two weeks prior to election day. Instead the lead was fragile and late deciders avalanched against Hillary, including in those swing states you mentioned. In Michigan 28% said they decided within the final month. Trump won that group 52% to 37%. In Wisconsin 25% said they decided within the final month. Trump won that block 57% to 34%. Only Pennsylvania exit polling indicated that Trump was in stronger position than the polling indicated prior to the Comey letter.

Overall we need a charismatic moderate. That is always the best ticket. It will remain the best route as long as the nation holds 9% (or thereabouts) more self-identified conservatives than liberals.

I hate to say it but our chances also improve dramatically once the Silent Generation dies out. That is by far the most conservative generation, as imprinted from their youth under Eisenhower. Once that generation is no longer a factor at the polls and millennials and youth vote more dependably as they age, we can nominate someone more liberal and get away with it. Right now the Sanders crowd is trying to force things too early. Unfortunately Bernie is late 70s not late 50s.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Again, Florida 2018 was the best example

One side doesn't get motivated while the other side sits on its ass. Both sides sense the same thing. We got all the familiar hype that Gillum was going to inspire massive turnout, that Democrats had finally figured out the bold formula. Meanwhile the socialism fear toward Gillum not only led to shift in preference among swing voters it also led to massive turnout in heavy red areas like Pensacola and Naples.

I've bet on this stuff for 28 years. The demographics shift here and there. The fundamentals do not change. Anyone who thinks they are going to dominate elections based on one-sided turnout is a fool. Turnout is like special teams in football. You have to do it just to make sure on the edges. Making it the key focus would be laughable.