Latest 538 Projection (ST morning)

[Zeus69]

Yeesh...

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo|

Brokered: 61%
Biden: 31% (1740)
Sanders: 8% (1362)

[hlthe2b]

1. Who will win the 2020 Dem Primary? Odds for "No One" 3 in 5!

[zackymilly]

12. Reminds me of "Brewster's Millions". n/t

[4139]

2. Have to see what tomorrow mornings numbers are...

Lot of early voting for Super Tuesday

[Blue_true]

28. Unless Sanders win California really big, Super Tuesday looks to be a wash.

Biden likely will win Texas, maybe by a good margin and Biden seems to be winning smaller states than Cali and Texas, but which have good sized populations.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. A model should not flip like this so completely

Way...WAY too sensitive to data variability.

[Happy Hoosier]

4. It needs to be agile to be of any use.

SC really DID change everything in this race, and it was only 4 days ago!

[Loki Liesmith]

6. I don't think so

I think the model was overestimating Bernie for the last few weeks.

It’s uncertainty was too low given the lack of any data.

[Happy Hoosier]

7. Well... build your own model!

I don't mean that in a snarky way. Models like this include a lot of judgement, of course. It's interesting to see what different kinds of models show.

[Loki Liesmith]

14. I have in previous years

Too little payoff given that my job is to build statistical models of things.

Maybe if I get some serious free time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. "All models are wrong; some are useful."

[dansolo]

20. The polls were not highlighting the undecideds

The predictions we're based on polling, except every poll that screamed Bernie up by N% ignored the large chunk of undecideds. Those people are now breaking towards Biden, which changes the calculations immensely.

[USALiberal]

9. So Nate is clueless??? Nt

[Demsrule86]

18. I fail to see why you said this.

[Loki Liesmith]

22. Nate has many clues

[LanternWaste]

23. Ask him for one.

[Loki Liesmith]

24. But he got them from me.

Yes I know Nate professionally. Or did, at one point. It’s been a few years.

[Recursion]

19. Remember, probability is a measure of ignorance, not of priors

Even tiny amounts of information can change probabilities drastically.

[John Fante]

27. And on that note...

Fuck you, James Comey!!!

[Loki Liesmith]

29. True but

That means the model heretofore has been almost all error bars. Reporting out a leader in an information starved model was a little irresponsible on the part of 538.

[karynnj]

25. The model should follow what reality is -- if events cause reality to change, the model should swing

to follow that.

What seems to have happened this year is that - other than Sanders supporters - people have been open to several candidates. With speeches, debates and elections, there have been BIG shifts in national polling. However, until this week, consider how stable almost all of the candidates have been DU's preferences, which allow us to select undecided if we really are not completely behind any one candidate, have been.

The models use the more variable polls where people are somewhat pushed to select a candidate. What that means is for several candidates - maybe all but Bernie's - a portion of the support is very soft. That causes the swings. The only way to get rid of this variability is to do the polls - which they do not do or control - making it clear that undecided is a valid choice.

It is interesting that this week, we have seen the biggest shift (I think) in the DU polls. 15 to 22 is a huge shift - especially as Sanders and Warren remain fixed or not fixed.

[njhoneybadger]

5. Good job Bernie, you got the Democratic Establishment to all pull in the same direction.

[Hav]

10. What a uniter!

[njhoneybadger]

11. I always knew Bernie was a uniter

[Demsrule86]

16. hahah...thanks Bern.

[Demsrule86]

17. Thank you for uniting us Sen. Sanders.

[honest.abe]

21. So Bernie can get things done!

[honest.abe]

8. Wow. things are changing rapidly.

After tonight I suspect Biden over 50%.

[Demsrule86]

15. If this holds...the supers will put Biden over the top...and he will be our nominee.

[redstatebluegirl]

26. If Bloomberg drops out after super tuesday it will change dramatically.