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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Happyhippychick

(8,379 posts)
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:08 PM Mar 2020

Is anyone else becoming completely skeptical of polls?

I will grant I am not the political junkie that many of you are, but all I've heard this entire winter is Bernie Bernie Bernie ahead in the polls.

Double digits.

No one close.

How is this happening?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Codeine

(25,586 posts)
1. People always disregard the Undecided number
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:09 PM
Mar 2020

in polls. They don’t stay undecided forever, and when they break they sometimes break hard.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,464 posts)
2. They didn't have time to pick up the trend post-SC.
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:09 PM
Mar 2020

538 also noted that and said that anything between then and now was a big guessing game, including their projections.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
3. Polls took big turn with SC results. But clearly, just looking at 2016 says polls aren't final word.
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:10 PM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
4. polls are only as good as the sample base and the pollsters
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:11 PM
Mar 2020

I never place much value in them

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
5. The polls changed because of two tiny white states and Nevada, which both Trump and
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:13 PM
Mar 2020

Bernie influenced by portraying Biden as anti-immigration. Biden was way front-running for almost a year. True, MSM has been positively hostile to him, so when he slipped they erased him.

He’s back where the most qualified, experienced, job-specific knowledgeable candidate should be.

He has the broadest appeal and staked out themes that are finally being echoed by the public because of the SC success.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
6. After an entire year of Sanders being anywhere from 11 to 30 points
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:17 PM
Mar 2020

behind the lone front runner, Biden, never able to break out, and then suddenly within less than a month their positions reversed with Sanders bizarrely double digits ahead and Biden in third and fourth place?

Oh, yes. Deja vu all over again for the 2016 GE with Trump and Hillary when the polls suddenly went crazy after over a year of all polls showing Hillary far ahead and bringing the senate and house along on her coattails.

I also know that pollsters failed for years to ask the questions, or offer the analysis, that should have shown that most Democrats want strong action (not revolution!), so Democratic candidates offered the bland nothing pollsters said voters wanted, with devastating, devastating effects on turnout.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)
7. Those polls were before Klobuchar and Buttigeig dropped out; things can change faster
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:18 PM
Mar 2020

than the polls will reflect.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Jamastiene

(38,187 posts)
8. I have been skeptical of polls since 2000.
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:19 PM
Mar 2020

At least, since 2000, I have been skeptical of them. They seem to get more and more off as years go by.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
9. Pollsters are relying on online polls.
Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:57 PM
Mar 2020

They have not figured out how to get past cellphones having callerID by name when people program in known numbers. I don't answer unknown numbers, and my guess is a lot of cell users don't either.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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