Bernie is going to net +65 delegates from CA, if the percentages stay approx the same...

[SidDithers]

Biden is going to net +68 delegates from AL and VA alone, more than offsetting the gains Bernie makes from winning CA.

Barring something strange in the coming weeks, I don't see a path to the nomination for Bernie. Biden's delegate lead should get bigger and bigger leading up to the convention.

He may get 1990 delegates before the convention, but even if he doesn't, he easily wins on a 2nd ballot.

Sid

[Stallion]

1. They Won't-Race Will Tighten as in Every Other State

Sanders got trounced on Election Day

[Cha]

2. Mahalo, Sid..

I certainly hope so ;grouphug:

[still_one]

3. The only thing I will say is that Joe will come out ahead in delegates after Super Tuesday

[AlexSFCA]

4. CA race will become quite a bit closer, IMO

lots of same day Biden voters.

[SidDithers]

5. Yup...

Biden just jumped over 20%.

Net gain is only around 58 delegates now, and will probably be fewer by the time all is said and done.

Sid

[Celerity]

35. Wowowow. They were just a week ago bragging about pulling 350 or so.

Hubris, thy name be........Berner.

[grantcart]

6. I seem to remember someone saying that whoever had the plurality

MUST be given the nomination.

How much you want to bet Sanders (I) Vermont once again reverses himself on a principle he maintained was absolute.?

[dem4decades]

26. That was last week.

[rzemanfl]

31. +1. n/t

[Demsrule86]

7. Sid...Biden won more delegates then Sander on Super Tuesday..he was left for dead just three days

ago.

[greatauntoftriplets]

34. "Rumors of his 'death' were greatly exaggerated."

Mark Twain.

[Demsrule86]

46. I love that line...and it is so appropriate here.

[greatauntoftriplets]

53. Thanks. That's a great line and I've always liked it, too.

[Sloumeau]

8. There is only one way that Bernie can win.

If Elizabeth Warren drops out, but Micheal Bloomberg stays in, Bernie *might* win more delegates than Biden. Basically, if Warren does not drop out, and really soon, Bernie is pretty much toast.

[LizBeth]

9. I would really like an idea how many Warren would go Sanders. A lot are HRC voters that would not

vote Sanders. Sanders people have said nasty stuff about Warren. Sanders called her a liar, on national tv. We believe Warren.

[Rorey]

28. I didn't initially favor Elizabeth Warren

She really grew on me over the past few months, and I've stated here that if she somehow won the nomination, I would pour my heart and soul into campaigning for her.

If Sanders wins somehow is our candidate, I'll campaign against Orangeface, but I'd have a hard time actually campaigning FOR Sanders. Of course I'd vote for him, because I wouldn't let my hurt feelings keep me from doing the right thing.

[obamanut2012]

36. HRC Warren voter whose vote would (probably will) go 100% to Biden

And, I am not a Biden fan at all.

[Blue_true]

44. The remaining big states are very hostile places for Sanders.

There are less than five big states that aren't, but I don't see him aging ground on Biden unless Joe makes a horrible mistake.

I think the Hunter Biden smear that republicans want to try has already been baked in by voters and is likely to backfire on republicans if they try it.

[Sloumeau]

49. Any Democrat worried about Hunter Biden should read the link below:

[link:https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/5/1907833/-The-long-awaited-defense-of-Hunter-Biden|]

[aeromanKC]

10. Just last night, Biden losing a net of 150 delegates to Bernie was going to be a good night

What a difference a visit to Whataburger makes!!

[LizBeth]

11. 49% reporting, 21 difference. 15 minutes ago, it was 26.

[FreeState]

13. Yeah it's going to get a lot closer

San Diego has Sanders by 8% currently - early vote at the begging of the night was 12%. (39% reporting).

[beachbumbob]

12. I wonder how the total vote count is going to turn out, rememeber sanders and his people

always say those with most VOTES should be the nominee....

I dare say, Biden annihilated sanders on that front as well

[dumptrump1]

14. whoever gets more delegates before the convention will be the nominee

There will not be a contested convention

[stopdiggin]

15. technically, has to be 50+%

otherwise it IS a contested ...
(now it may very well be a very short 2nd ballot ...)

[dumptrump1]

16. agreed

[Blue_true]

45. Thank you for being true on that. nt

[blue-wave]

17. You are spot on

I also was doing some quick delegate math. Bernie appears to be sunk.

That in no way should dampen our enthusiasm. We must keep pushing through the rest of the primary and the general election will be grueling. Keep pushing on!!

[dumptrump1]

18. if the delegate margins stay the same, bernie will net maybe around +150. and if bloomberg is not vi

Then another +20 depending on the margins

[SidDithers]

23. No he won't...

Even if Bloomberg isn't viable statewide, he'll still be viable in many congressional districts. Bloomberg will earn delegates in any CD where he reaches 15%. That will net him dozens of delegates.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/CA-D

Sid

[dumptrump1]

37. if he is not viable statewide, 144 delegates are spread out proportionally. among the candidates

Also biden is not closing the gap. The gap is widening. Bernie will close the nationwide delegate gap with california alone. I dont believe you receive delegates if you do not meet 15 percent statewide.

[SidDithers]

38. The gap is widening?...

are you sure you're looking at California?

The gap is down to 8.7% with 54% reporting.
Biden's moved from between 17% and 18% to almost 25%.
The gap is obviously closing, especially with same-day voters overwhelmingly choosing Biden.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/california

If Bloomberg doesn't get any of the 144 statewide delegates, and %s stay the same with Bernie at 33.6% and Biden at 24.9% then the delegate distribution is:

Bernie 83
Biden 61

If Bloomberg is at 15%, Bernie at 33%, Biden at 24% then distribution is:

Bernie 66
Biden 48
Bloomberg 30

Without Bloomberg, Bernie is +22 over Biden in the statewide delegates
With Bloomberg Bernie is +18 over Biden in the statewide delegates


There's absolutely no way that Bernie can be +150 delegates over Biden in CA.
Not without using #Berniemath, anyway.



Sid

[dumptrump1]

39. 75% reporting and it Is closer to 10%

Bloomber is unviable and delegate wise bernie is blowing out joe.

[SidDithers]

40. I updated my post with real numbers..

yours don't make any sense.

Sid

[dumptrump1]

41. 72 delegates have been allocated to bernie

21 to biden. Bernie has 70% of delegates despite only leading by about 9% with 79% reporting. If this lead is maintained or even closes slightly, bernie will still end up with almost 70 percent of delegates.

[SidDithers]

42. You're wrong. That's not how it works...

You're taking an interim result and projecting it to the end without understanding the allocation method.

The Green Papers has a good summary.
I'm done trying to explain it to you.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/CA-D#0303

Sid

[Blue_true]

50. The guy the heads Cook's Election Reports did a calculation.

With what happened before California, he calculated that even if everyone except Sanders were not viable in California and Sanders took ALL delegates there, Biden would still come out of Super Tuesday with the delegate lead. But Biden isn't getting wiped out in California.

[Blue_true]

47. My guess is California works out sort of like Texas, but Joe doesn't pass and win. nt

[SidDithers]

48. Could be. It's going to be a while before we know for sure, I think...

Sid

[Blue_true]

51. I agree. California is too big for mailin ballots. It is a deep blue state, officials

should be able to come up with a better system.

[arthritisR_US]

19. Your country has hope and I your neighbour

have hope as well. Luv you mates

[Just_Vote_Dem]

20. I just hope its not another repeat of 2016 at the convention n/t

[tarheelsunc]

21. There is no way Bernie wins on the first ballot...

which means there's no way he wins at all, given how divisive and spiteful of a campaign he's run.

[Jersey Devil]

22. llast night at 1 am Biden had 17%, this morning he has 24%

and they won't finish counting for days if not weeks. It may tighten some more

[Happy Hoosier]

24. Just heard Biden is winning the election day vote.

... and Sanders is coming in THIRD.

AS votes come in, Joe's vote creeps up.

[brush]

25. I'm not so sure. MSNBC just reported Sanders is 3rd in same-day voting...

in California. The full results won't be out for a while though.

[MineralMan]

30. Yup, don't count California until all the votes have been tallied.

[honest.abe]

32. OMG.. really. Third?!?

I was expecting Biden to beat him on same day but who else. Warren?

[brush]

33. Bloomberg.

[Iliyah]

27. I am at . . . .

[MineralMan]

29. Some were suggesting that Biden wouldn't hit the 15% mark in CA.

Not so, apparently. Biden will get his due share of delegates from that state, as well.

[Hortensis]

54. Yes. But I'd say candidacies found to be receiving support from

hostile foreign nations waging war on us, instead of publicly rejecting and doing whatever they have to to STOP it , should be considered illicit and delegates disallowed.

Right now Sanders couldn't accept $27 directly and openly to his campaign from Russia, but he can legally benefit from tacitly accepting any amount and any type of covert indirect assistance from Russia's FSB/KGB, even when he knows it's happening.

Our intelligence services say Russia went far more covert after 2016 so the interference bombs they've been planting over the past four years, involving many projects besides Sanders, couldn't be easily exposed by investigative media.

In any case, we should suspect that this grave problem means Biden and the other Democratic candidates, particularly Elizabeth Warren, did not get their due share of delegates.

[Blue_true]

43. I hope that it won't come to a second ballot.

Senator Sanders should negotiate honestly and hard on a platform, then release his delegates to vote for Biden on the first ballot. After that we focus 100% on removing Trump and electing democrats across the country at every level of government.

[redstatebluegirl]

52. Thank you Sid, makes me feel even better.

[getagrip_already]

55. karnacki just said it is a certainty biden will retain delegate lead after votes are counted.....

He was emphasizing that on a night that was perfect for sanders, biden will come out with a both a solid delegate and vote lead.

[Laelth]

56. Agreed. We're all Biden supporters now. The primary is over.

Go JOE!



-Laelth