NY, OH, MI, NJ, PA, FL, IL; This is far from over

[jg10003]

[Awsi Dooger]

1. That looks like a Murderers' Row for Bernie Sanders

Biden might get a delegate

[HarlanPepper]

18. Well, at least he won't have spent $500 million to do it.

Bloomberg’s face plant will be laughed at for years. Rudy G’s 2008 campaign is off the hook when it comes to money and delegate futility.

[Squinch]

30. Will you find Bloomberg laughable when he puts all that money behind Joe?

[TwilightZone]

42. I assume that's sarcasm.

Florida isn't going to Sanders. The only one on the list he won in 2016 was MI. It'll be interesting to see if even that holds.

[lapucelle]

56. I don't think BS will win NY. N/T

[NYMinute]

58. Of those states, the only place where Bernie has a tiny chance is Michigan

[Demsrule86]

65. Also...they seem to forget Georgia and the rest of the Southern states...

[lapucelle]

80. I think Biden will win here in NY.

[LiberalFighter]

71. New York had 247 delegates in 2016.

Clinton 139 and Sanders 108.

New York has 274 delegates this year. I wonder how many Biden will get?

[lapucelle]

79. More than BS. N/T

[SaschaHM]

2. It's not, but with the exception of MI, those are states that Bernie lost in 2016.

If Biden's coalition holds, he's going to do well in those states. If Warren stays in the race, he's going to do really really well in those states.

Biden's doing well with white voters while holding a large lead w/ AA voters. Those states are very kind to him.

[LiberalFighter]

67. And Sanders won Michigan by just over 17,000 votes.

Netting 4 votes more than Clinton in 2016.

[vercetti2021]

3. Lmao Florida isn't going to Bernie

He screwed that chance with his Cuba comments

[SaschaHM]

5. None of those states should be that kind to Sanders.

With the exception of MI, Hillary won those states and Biden's over performing while Sanders is under performing. Not to mention, Warren is still going to be around. Heck, smart money would be on Joe in MI.

[calimary]

25. Florida's gone with those Castro comments.

Just a guess.

[zackymilly]

40. Yep. 70% of Cuban Americans live in Florida. n/t

[LiberalFighter]

68. I wonder how many Sanders will get in Florida?

In 2016 it was Clinton 141 and Sanders 73. There are 219 delegates up for grabs this year.

[Zambero]

78. Bernie has the pro-Castro vote locked up

[beachbumbob]

4. I dare say that sanders outspent biden by what percentage to get COLLOBERED?

The democratic voter has spoken and they aint buying what sanders is selling.

Th greatest political turnaround I have seen in nearly 50 years of participation in voting

[NYMinute]

59. 20:1

[beachbumbob]

86. we can safely say that sanders is a big money SPENDER AND WASTER right?

and Biden spends frugally and WINS!!!

I know I want a smart guy with money running things not some one that just throws money AWAY to lose

[Hav]

6. It's not over and tactically it shouldn't be treated as such

Voters shouldn't feel that it doesn't matter anymore because that would hurt the coming performances. But what could be seen in many races, BS has trouble persuading more than 30%. You cannot win with that when the moderate vote isn't that distributed over many candidates anymore.

But just a few days ago, there were obnoxious BS is inevitable posts. Those guys are very silent now.

[beachbumbob]

11. sanders has proved in these massive defeats his inability to cross over 35%

while spending $$$$. The media hype for sanders is done. The youth vote as always is an illusion. Yelling louder doesn't make winners in primaries nor leadership.

The democratic voters are speaking loud and clear now.

[LovingA2andMI]

7. Michigan..

Is going to Biden after Super Tuesday. Heck, we are even changing our vote to Biden after his full house win Tuesday night.

[tishaLA]

8. Tonight was a devastating rebuke of BS

I'd want to look to other states he'll lose, like FL, if I were one of his fans, too.

[pnwmom]

9. Okie dokie. nt

[murielm99]

10. I'll be voting for Biden in Illinois.

So will all my friends.

[beachbumbob]

12. the action of sander supporters against Betsy Londrigan sealed his fate with many

of the people I know in the Il-13th. The media attempts to force sanders down the throat of the democratic party FAILED

[murielm99]

17. Yes.

Bernie Bros trapped her in her car and screamed at her. They would not let her leave. Scary.

These were not bots, or Russians, BS supporters. They were real, live people, intimidating a good candidate.

They are also trying to primary some good people in Illinois. Some of those races were close and hard-fought. If they screw around enough, we will lose some great new people.

The disgust for the BS supporters spreads far beyond the 13th.

[beachbumbob]

19. yep. Their tactics very similar to what we seen from the otherside

[blue-wave]

15. Me too murielm99!!

I'll be voting early. I don't see a Bernie win happening in Illinois or any of the other states mentioned in this post.

[greatauntoftriplets]

81. I'm also voting for Biden in the Chicago suburbs.

[DemKittyNC]

13. Oh FFS

:/

[Sancho]

14. Florida will choose between Bloomberg and Biden...

many have already voted by mail.

If Bloomberg gets out then Biden will win Florida.

[Demsrule86]

66. Bloomberg is out.

[Sancho]

69. He is now...many mail-in ballots are already cast..

we've had ballots for a couple weeks.

[Blue_true]

82. Mailing ballots in Florida start early.

Early voting started on March 2 and will continue to March 13. Primary day is March 17. I will early vote sometime next week.

[HarlanPepper]

16. A whole bunch of states Biden's going to do very well in.

Thanks for the reminder.

[BidenBacker]

20. It's nearer to over than you think

I seriously doubt Bernie wins a single one of those states.

I haven't done the math but if Joe runs that table I'm not sure he needs to win many or any other ones.

[HarlanPepper]

21. Biden May win them all.

Bernie has zero chance in Florida. ZERO. Joe should be favored in PA as well. Someone posted Biden was +6 in Michigan.

GA, MS, LA, KY in the south will all go Biden as well. As mentioned on both CNN and MSNBC the upcoming states are more favorable to Biden than Bernie, false bravado in the OP aside.

[BidenBacker]

23. Agree with your analysis

Generally speaking I despise the South but I'm sure loving all the Democrats in Dixie tonight.

Biden's a native Pennsylvanian like me...PA and the rest of the Rust Belt loves Joe. I might concede Wisconsin to Sanders but I don't see Bernie winning a single state the OP listed.

I'll sure be glad if/when Joe wins the general in November. Up to now the only President we've ever had from PA was James Buchanon who's generally regarded by presidential historians as the worst POTUS ever. Well, make that the 2nd worst given the buffoon we got in there now.

Joe ain't much of a public speaker but I think he'll make a fine president. I originally supported him back in 2008 but Obama and Hillary sucked all the oxygen outta the room and Biden didn't stand any chance back then. I'm liking his chances a whole lot more after tonight.

[True Blue American]

29. For one state

I can only say, watch Sherrod Brown.

[MH1]

47. In PA, almost all 2016 Bernie supporters I know, switched to Warren.

I haven't checked this week so some may switch back, if they feel they need to pick between Sanders and Biden. BUT, they ditched Sanders for Warren for a reason ... I won't be surprised if a bunch go to Biden, if they switch at all.

Personally I plan to vote for Warren if she is on the ballot. Of course that could change depending how things go, but I won't be voting for Bernie in the primary this time.

[LiberalFighter]

72. Considering what happened in Massachusetts I wouldn't be too sure.

[Freddie]

22. Biden is a native son of PA

Sorry Bernie

[dem4decades]

54. Scranton Joe vs Burlington Bernie? Maybe in Vt but not PA.

[RelativelyJones]

24. You're joking right? NY, NJ and IL were some of the biggest Obama states. Biden country for sure.

[bearsfootball516]

36. Not to mention PA is Biden's state, and FL HATES Bernie.

It’s going to be a massacre.

[DarthDem]

26. It may be after those states

All of which should go to Biden along with several other states in the South you didn't mention.

[OnDoutside]

27. You're OP is the equivalent of opening a door, shouting in some incoherent babble, and running off

around the corner, shouting to yourself that YOU SHOWED THEM !

[Mike 03]

28. Whatever.

Bernie supporters were insisting he would be "uncatchable" after tonight, so I take everything they say deadly seriously.

[MontanaFarmer]

31. Those are going to be Joe Biden states.

Add Georgia to the list as well as the southern states listed in another response up above. Voters, democratic voters, across a wide swath of red, purple and blue states indicated last night that the revolution at the ballot box that's being sold to them isn't what they want. Sanders has not grown his coalition, and he's not going to be the nominee.

[philf99]

32. The fat lady is warming up

And I predict on St. Patrick day, Joe Biden will be the presumptive nominee.

[Kahuna7]

33. NJ is a rich state that is unlikely to buy into a socialist revolution. nt

[Jersey Devil]

60. Actually, NJ is not a "rich" state

Most of south and west NJ is conservative and the Dem bastions are in the northeast, centering around Newark, Jersey City, Hudson and Essex Counties. You are talking about a state that in the past has often been a swing state and elected Christie and Whitman twice each, plus Reagan twice and Bush 39 and Bush 41.

The Dem areas have a large black population and a ton of Latinos, including a very large contingent of Cuban Americans in Hudson County (Union City).

[Kahuna7]

61. The vast majority of counties aren't poor like some parts of Essex, Hudson and Camden...

And even in those counties, they have some very very high income pockets. Millionaires even.

[Jersey Devil]

62. Per capita income is high, but the cost of living is also high

I lived in Bergen County, the extreme NE part of NJ. Sure, we had a few towns with mansions and millionaires, but most of the area was middle class, people who commuted to jobs in NYC and took the bus or train to work, hardly high living "rich" people. Incomes are high because the cost of housing and property taxes are through the roof. When I sold my house in Bergen County 4 years ago the price was $500,000 for a 2,300 square foot home on a 75x100 lot and my property taxes were $16,500 per year. I moved to NC and bought a house the same size on 3/4 of an acre for under $200,000 and my taxes are $1,500.

People in NJ are not living high on the hog. Far from it.

[Kahuna7]

84. Give me a break. I've been living in NJ for 65+ years. I never said it's rich

Last edited Thu Mar 5, 2020, 07:32 AM - Edit history (2)

because the people are rich. I guess the definition of rich is different for you and I. If I have more than one pair of shoes and one set of cloths, I'm doing okay. If I have food in my cupboard and don't have to go hungry and a roof over my head (albeit not a 500k, 2300 SF) I feel blessed with riches.

NJ is rich to us who don't live in 500k homes in Bergen county, which is considered a rich county.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergen_County%2C_New_Jersey

Bergen County is the most populous county in the U.S. state of New Jersey.[4] As of the 2018 Census estimate, the county's population was 936,692, an increase of 3.5% from the 2010 census,[5][6][7] which in turn represented an increase of 20,998 (2.4%) from the 884,118 counted in the 2000 Census.[8] Located in the northeastern corner of New Jersey and its Gateway Region, Bergen County is part of the New York City Metropolitan Area and is directly across the Hudson River from Manhattan, to which it is connected by the George Washington Bridge.

Bergen County is divided into 70 municipalities, but has no large cities. Its most populous place, with 43,010 residents at the time of the 2010 census, is Hackensack,[9] which is also its county seat.[2] Mahwah covered the largest area of any municipality, at 26.19 square miles (67.8 km2).[9]

In 2015, the county had a per capita personal income of $75,849, the fourth-highest in New Jersey and ranked 45th of 3,113 counties in the United States.[10][11] Bergen County is one of the wealthiest counties in the United States, with a median household income of $81,708 per the 2010 Census, increasing to an estimated $84,677 in 2014, which was almost 18% higher than the $71,919 median statewide.[12] The county hosts an extensive park system totaling nearly 9,000 acres

NJ vs. the Country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey#Wealth

Affluence
New Jersey's per capita gross state product in 2008 was $54,699, second in the U.S. and above the national per capita gross domestic product of $46,588.[135] Its per capita income was the third highest in the nation with $51,358.[135] In 2018, New Jersey had the highest number of millionaires per capita in the United States (approximately 9% of households), according to a study by Phoenix Marketing International.[28] The state is ranked second in the nation by the number of places with per capita incomes above national average with 76.4%. Nine of New Jersey's counties are among the 100 wealthiest U.S. counties.

[W_HAMILTON]

34. Just eyeing it, Biden will probably win *at least* four to five of those states...

...and he could damn near sweep them, depending on how the electorate looks in the rest of them.

Last time around, Sanders always had California in his back pocket in the hopes he could make up a ton of delegates and somehow overtake Hillary; this time around, California will already be out of play and he likely will have *lost* the overall delegate lead on the same day that California voted. No one would have predicted that.

It may just be a slow death for the Sanders campaign from here on out.

[bearsfootball516]

35. That's an absolutely awful slate of states for Bernie.

There was a reason Bernie needed to stop Joe’s momentum tonight. The primary calendar gets highly favorable for Joe now. And with already having the delegate lead...it’s over.

[BeyondGeography]

37. It's over

Bloomberg is going to drop out. If that happens, my candidate should drop out too. Then the only question is how ugly do the next three months have to be before Biden wins this. That’s not a question for Biden.

[MFM008]

41. Hopefully

Tomorrow.

[Jarqui]

38. Let's see ...

Sanders lost these states badly or significantly to Clinton:
NY, OH, NJ, GA, FL, PA

He lost IL slightly to Clinton

The only state of that bunch Sanders won against Clinton was MI - in a rust belt that has a bunch of hate for the Clintons due to NAFTA.There's only one poll that has Sanders ahead in MI that was taken before Biden's surge.

In poll of polls taken before Biden's surge, Biden leads Sanders in FL, OH, PA, NJ, GA & MI

There is one lone poll taken before Biden's surge with Sanders ahead in IL

PA is the state Biden was born (Scranton) and initially raised in.

So I do not see where the great green pastures are for Sanders to make up ground on Biden with those states.

Looks like wishful thinking.

[mvd]

39. Yes, a lot of big states

By the way that was no big rebuke of Sanders at all! He will get delegates in every state.

I see a iot of celebrating before it is really over. It’s an eternity in politics until all the above states have voted. Things sure changed a lot from when Biden was thought done.

I would have stayed classy if Bernie had the lead after yesterday. Let’s not forget we need each other despite our differences.

[democrattotheend]

43. Not a great map for Bernie

He won Michigan in 2016 and may do so again, but Biden will probably be stronger there than Hillary was because he probably has more appeal to white working class voters than she did.

The rest of the map is not great for Bernie. He may do better in New York than he did four years ago, because he's not running against a home state senator, but I still think Biden is more likely to win here.

Florida is going to be really tough for him, between the Castro thing and his support for Palestinian rights.

Biden definitely has the advantage in Pennsylvania, where he grew up and where he embodies a lot of the blue collar voters. OTOH, a poll a couple weeks ago showed Bernie doing better against Trump in PA than Biden, so maybe that will have some impact.

Biden also has a bit of a neighbor advantage in NJ, and I believe that state also went for Clinton in 2016. Democrats there tend to be more well-off than a lot of other states, so that probably plays to Biden's advantage.

Ohio I'm not sure about but I would think it's a better state for Biden overall.

That said, I live in one of the states on your list and I would very much like the chance to have a say in the nominee. I can't stand the media's rush to narrow it to two candidates (so they don't have to spend as much covering many campaigns) and then supporters of whichever candidate is ahead demanding that the other candidate drop out before half the voters get the chance to weigh in.

[oasis]

44. Right. It's only a matter of rearranging the deck chairs.

[SidDithers]

45. Which of these can Bernie win?...nt

Sid

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Joe wins em all or closer to winning them all than losing them all.

Florida will be a victory of historic proportions.

[lindysalsagal]

48. NY and NJ voters know people who know frump. I do. They want him punished, period.

Not taking chances on Bernie.

New Englanders aren't pie-in-the-sky dreamers: We're pragmatists, for the most part. And we cannot risk frump getting independents, again.

These are highly educated electorates, and they learned the hard way in 2016 that the scoundrels will win if we don't all show up. They'll show up.

[mcar]

49. FL and PA are not going to Bernie

[Renew Deal]

50. Neither is NY

[mcar]

51. NJ either

[doc03]

53. Ohio won't go for Bernie either

[doc03]

52. I got my vote in last week for Biden, he could carry

Ohio.

[Demsrule86]

73. I think he could carry Ohio too...he was very popular in Ohio with Obama...he came quite often.

I saw him in Youngstown and Warren. He was down for both O8 and 12...

[yardwork]

77. Biden will definitely carry Ohio.

[Amishman]

55. 5 stages of mourning

Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance

OP is in stage 1

[treestar]

57. OK

Then it wasn't over after IA, NH and NV for sure.

[AGeddy]

63. Those are all states that Biden is stronger than Bernie in... especially FL

Bernie was polling under 10% in FL last week. He might get shut out of delegates there.

[Raftergirl]

64. I live in one of the few

counties in NYS that went for Bernie in 2016 primary. I don’t know anyone this time around who is supporting him, except one old hippie in my resistant group.

[Moderateguy]

70. I agree it's far from over....

However, I think Sanders will have to replicate Biden’s ST success in multiple states. After the last week, I am firmly in the anything can happen camp.

[LiberalFighter]

74. 352 delegates up at stake next Tuesday.

[Moderateguy]

83. So Bernie will win 354 of them #Berniemath

[BootinUp]

75. I don't see Sanders overtaking the current

Joe Biden packing the extra support he has now. Not gonna happen. Better chance that Bernie supporters start bailing.

[Zambero]

76. Bernie handed Florida to Joe on a silver platter

Big time. And yes, aside from that one there are still many competitive races.

[MrsCoffee]

85. Here we go again...

[onetexan]

87. BS got his ass handed to him on ST. The race to the nomination is over. No need to drag it out

so the Biden camp can focus on winning the GE. Time to close up shop dude, and get behind Biden.

[LongtimeAZDem]

88. It's still good!