538: Biden Won Super Tuesday Because He Won Voters Who Decided Late

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

On Super Tuesday, it was better late than never for former Vice President Joe Biden. Late-deciding voters, that is. One consistent trend across the country was that voters who made their minds up in the last few days moved toward Biden, helping him win some states unexpectedly and run up bigger margins in others. Biden’s strength among late-deciding voters was further evidence of his stunning turnaround since the Nevada caucuses — rising from a distant second to Sen. Bernie Sanders and competing with former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to the race’s front-runner.

Based on preliminary exit poll data from 10 Super Tuesday states,1 Biden won at least 40 percent of the late-deciding vote in every state except for Sanders’s home state of Vermont. In six states, Biden performed at least 16 percentage points better among late deciders than early deciders. Conversely, Sanders did far worse among late deciders, harming his chances of winning some states.

Minnesota stands out as the state where Biden benefited most from late deciders. The departure of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar from the presidential race on Monday, along with her endorsement of Biden, helped push enough voters into Biden’s camp for the former vice president to win the state by 9 points — particularly impressive considering Sanders had a 2 in 3 chance of winning Minnesota when Klobuchar left the race, according to our model.

Two other states with big gaps: Massachusetts and Maine. Biden won the former by 7 points, and he leads by a point in the latter, though the race remains too close to call. (Some outlets have called it.) Biden only had about a 1 in 4 shot of winning Maine and a 1 in 5 chance of winning Massachusetts when we froze our forecast the morning of the election, but big margins among late deciders — and a large number of late deciders — put Biden in a strong position in both states.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-won-super-tuesday-because-he-won-over-voters-who-decided-late/

[TwilightZone]

1. Voters were looking for clarity in the race. It arrived...

and so did they.

[Act_of_Reparation]

3. If by "clarity" you mean a reduction of options...

...then, sure.

The overabundance of redundant candidates was a problem for moderates. It's not a problem anymore.

[TwilightZone]

17. Clarity in that the party needed an alternative to Sanders while it still had time.

Sanders, to be frank, seems to have gotten overconfident and then ramped up the attacks on the party that had been significantly less prevalent earlier in the campaign. I think he might have even thought he had the nomination in the bag and was shifting to a GE stance.

It was a stupid strategy, voters acted accordingly, and Biden was the one who benefited, but that's not the only factor. I think many are also diminishing what voters did in South Carolina. They sent a message and that message was a strong showing for Biden and a repudiation of Sanders. That was the primary catalyst here.

He was always going to do well in SC. Did anyone expect it would swing the race this far? Nope, but assuming it wouldn't have any impact at all was always pretty unrealistic. Or wishful thinking, depending on the perspective.

[Midnight Writer]

22. Yes, strange strategy to decide to attack Democrats when you are running in a Democratic primary.

How could he have thought that would benefit him?

[Cha]

29. I don't see it as anything that changed.

[LanternWaste]

23. If by "reduction of options" you mean a greater unity within our party...

...then, sure.

The overabundance of a candidate calling for division within the Democratic Party was a problem for Democrats. As of his press conference today, it's still a problem.

[squirecam]

2. Yep

Biden owes Amy and Pete big time.

Joe/Amy 2020.

[Act_of_Reparation]

4. I'd rather she stay a Senator.

We have very little to gain with her as VP and much to lose if Minnesota replaces her with a Republican.

[squirecam]

5. Minnesota has a Democratic governor.

Plus, I’d want Franken back.....

[Act_of_Reparation]

11. A state with a Democratic governor can't elect a Republican senator?

Somebody should tell Louisiana.

[squirecam]

15. Amy will be replaced by a democratic gov.

Warren would be replaced by a republican gov.

[Act_of_Reparation]

18. And that replacement will eventually have to campaign.

Amy can win in Minnesota. There's no guarantee her replacement will.

And I'm struggling to determine how Warren is relevant to this conversation.

[squirecam]

27. Al Franken could be appointed

Nt

[MontanaFarmer]

6. I agree.

Plus, I think (rightly) black voters will prefer a person of color on the ticket of a party for whom they're the most reliable voters.

[squirecam]

9. We need a coalition.

Biden brings AA voters.
Amy brings Midwest suburban women.

It worked last night. It will work in November.

[onetexan]

13. I'd also rather Warren remain in the Senate, as MA's governor is a Republican

so we don't lose the seat and help retake the Senate.

[Act_of_Reparation]

16. MA has special elections, if I recall correctly.

The governor can appoint a Senator pro tem, but I think it has to go up for popular vote within a year or something to that effect.

But really, if you're going to pull Liz out of the Senate, then you should put her to work. The VP is a figurehead position, a complete waste of talent unless something terrible happens. If it's the choice between the VP and the Senate, I say keep her in the Senate.

[onetexan]

19. We're on the same page then :)

[BlueIdaho]

7. 538 often puts the cart in front of the horse. nt.

[LizBeth]

8. Amy, Pete, Beto on TExas stage letting all us Democrats get behind one. Not so much about Joe.

[squirecam]

14. Correct

He owes them big time.

Biden didn’t suddenly become unstoppable overnight on his own.

[LizBeth]

20. Blue wave voters wanting to take down Trump got behind Biden.

[apnu]

10. This reflects this forum

Since the candidate thing opened here, I've seen a large majority at the top list themselves as "undecided". I think most Democrats are still figuring out what they want, or who is best and I expect more late-minute decisions as we go down the wire.

[brooklynite]

12. Also, he won voters who actually vote...

[TheCowsCameHome]

21. ..unlike the crowd that comes for free music and food, then

wanders off until the next giveaway.

[Runningdawg]

24. I made my decision only a few hours before I voted and it wasn't for HIM

[AlexSFCA]

25. Amy would be perfect

Biden has demonstrated that he doesn’t need a black running mate in order to turn out AA voters. We need to turn out midwestern voters. We cannot count on youth vote, that much is obvious now.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Very fitting late deciders swamped a campaign that tried to pretend late deciders don't exist

I loved last night. But this is the reason I never wager on primaries. Far too many variables and therefore uncertainty.

Contrast to general election where those rigid stacks of self-identified liberals and conservatives dictate the result in every state. If campaigns polled that aspect instead of raw preference they would get a far superior grasp of the race.

We wouldn't waste time in any state reporting 40+% self-identified conservatives. Hillary stupidly tried that in several states in 2016 while ignoring states that sat smack on the national average, which is 35% conservatives and 26% liberals.

[Cha]

28. Dem Voters paying Attention! Thank you!