Proportional delegate allocation is going to doom Bernie...

[SidDithers]

Going forward, I can't find a state where he wins huge, and picks up significantly more delegates than Biden.

Maybe AZ, with 67 delegates. If Bernie were to win AZ by 30 or 40 points, he'd still net only +25ish delegates. Biden might offset that with an expected huge win in MS.

Anything else Bernie wins will probably be by small margins, which will net him only a handful of delegates at a time. He needs big margins.

Even last night, much was made of Bernie winning Colorado, but the win gave him a net +6 delegates over what Biden earned. (23-17 according to The Green Papers, which may not be the final total, but is a very good estimate of approximately where the final will be)

Biden was +8 in Oklahoma, erasing Bernie's win in CO.

Bernie needed to score big in CA, and it looks like his max is going to be somewhere around +60 delegates over Biden.

Biden was +34 in AL, and +29 in NC, completely offsetting Bernie's win in CA.


I really can't find a state where Bernie goes +30 or +40 delegates on Biden, but can find several where Biden nets significantly more delegates than Bernie (GA and MS immediately come to mind, you can maybe toss FL in there too)

I really think that the race was decided last night. Bernie's only 60-70 delegates behind right now, which isn't a big number, but I don't see the margin decreasing, only increasing.

If delegates were awarded on a winner-take-all format, then the story might be different. But with proportional allocation, I truly believe that Bernie's campaign is essentially over.

Edit: I'm sorry to leave Warren completely out of the analysis. Unfortunately, I don't see her as a significant factor in the rest of this primary. And I say that with much disappointment.

Sid

[herding cats]

1. I'm assuming Washington state should be good for Bernie?

Am I wrong on that?

Beyond there, I'm not finding any off the top of my head.

[SidDithers]

2. Maybe...

but WA was a caucus in 2016 when he was +47 delegates. He lost the non-binding primary to Hillary.

WA is a primary in 2020 and I'd be shocked if he beats Biden by 40 or 50 points.

Oregon was another state I considered, but he beat Hillary by only 14 points in 2016 and was +11 delegates. That's not enough.

Sid

[Indykatie]

6. Bernie Lost the WA Non-binding Primary to Hillary 47% to 53%. He Wont Get 47%

against Biden.

[SidDithers]

9. Yup...

Let's say Bernie comes up big in WA and wins the primary by 20 or 25 points. That's still only an +20ish delegate gain.

That's not enough.

Sid

[herding cats]

10. Good points on WA state.

I'd forgotten the variances between the caucus and the (then) non-binding primary. My apologies, I've slept since then, but now that you refresh my memory I do recall. It was a big deal.

As to Oregon, I'm in complete agreement. It will be a pickup, but a slight one as delegates go.

[grantcart]

15. WA leads the country in per capita exports

Sanders protectionist policies is not good for WA.

[William769]

3. Great analysis Sid.

You can definitely add Florida as a huge gain for Joe Biden.

[SidDithers]

4. Thx Bill...

I think NJ is also probably a big win for Biden.



Sid

[AGeddy]

11. By the time we get to NJ in June, Biden's lead will be around 200

[SidDithers]

23. At least...nt

Sid

[Indykatie]

5. The Math Doesn't Look Good For Bernie With a Narrowed Field

I also think the race is over. I don't see a path for him to catch Biden. WA is expected to be one of his better States on March 10. Problem is WA no longer has a caucus where he had 73% of the caucus vote in 2016. In the non-binding WA Primary he only had 47% to Hillary's 53%. This WA example illustrates one of my issues with caucuses but I digress.

Bernie's winning strategy seemed to be predicated on the fact that there would be a crowded field late into the Primary cycle and his consistent 30% - 35% would net him more delegates than any of the other candidates and he'd get the nomination with a plurality of delegates. That seems like an obvious losing strategy today.

[SidDithers]

7. Good point. I think you're right about the crowded field strategy...

Win a plurality and hope for the best seemed pretty sound, but it does't work when the race is basically down to 2 candidates.

Again, sorry Warren supporters.

Sid

[onetexan]

12. Agree, &BS knows the math isn't possible

He cannot expand his base, the only way to win, but he isn't. Young people haven't lived long enough to know the words 'revolution' & 'socialism' are throwbacks to the '60s and are repellant to the majority of people. Why he chooses to keep running is the question.

[W_HAMILTON]

8. There are very few states out there where Sanders can even eclipse 50% of the vote.

He barely got 50% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, for god's sake.

The writing is on the wall.

[BigmanPigman]

13. A+ on the math!

[SunSeeker]

14. K & R

[blue-wave]

16. I just read

that Joe and Bernie are the only candidates to reach the 15% threshold in all of California's 53 congressional districts. That means they will not only share the 144 delegates in California that are apportioned statewide, they will share all the remaining delegates that are apportioned by congressional district. The candidate with the most votes in each district will, of course, get the most delegates from that particular district. I believe Bernie will not be walking away with nearly as many delegates as he hoped for.

[grantcart]

17. In 2008 the media gave big news to Clinton's very narrow win in Ohio

Which netted her a few delegates and paid no attention to Obama's 85% in Idaho which gave him a net gain of a couple dozen because he got all of them

Great post Sid

[dumptrump1]

18. after the 144 delegates are assigned in CA, Bernie will have a net 80 seats, if the proportional

allocation stays the same. This will close the gap by 20 delegates or so. The rest of the states that are waiting to be awarded the rest of the delegates, are states like UT and CO that Sanders won handily. The only exception is Texas, where the Biden did not significantly win enough to change much. There is still a somewhat decent possibility that Bernie closes the gap entirely after all the delegates are awarded.

[SidDithers]

19. No. I've explained this to you multiple times...

Sanders will have a final max net gain of around 60 delegates from CA. That includes the 144 state-wide delegates.

Your #Berniemath is just wrong.

Sid

[dumptrump1]

20. your condescension doesn't change the actual reality

Ive explained this to you.

[SidDithers]

21. Projected delegate allocation for CA is...

Sanders 220
Biden 163
Bloomberg 24
Warren 7
Pete 1

Now you post the totals you’re projecting.

Sid

[LanternWaste]

24. You do realize your editorial is not "actual reality", but simply another editorial, yes?

Or do you need that explained to you?

(six of one, half a dozen of the other... and each as petulant and without merit as the other)

[stonecutter357]

22. GOOD !