Nate Silver-The model is back on! It's quite good for Biden; 88 percent majority chances.

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[NCProgressive]

1. The March 8 model is even better

Biden has 14:15 chance of getting the nom. Bernie 1:15. Gabbard <1:100

[LongtimeAZDem]

3. How do you get that model?

[TwilightZone]

6. They're both the same model. 88% is majority, 94% is plurality.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Using the drop-down, "more than half" is 88%; "plurality" is 94%.

[NCProgressive]

7. I see -- this is the graph I saw earlier

[TwilightZone]

8. Yep, that's the plurality.

On the site, you can change the drop-down to "more than half" and it's 88%, which I think is even a better sign. Biden needs a solid majority to end the race and head off any nonsense at the convention. Not that they won't try, I just think people will have little or no patience for it after last time. Less media coverage, less drama.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[BidenBacker]

14. Funny thing is...

the delegate tracking chart looks a lot like the first one that 538 put out 4-6 weeks ago.

In fact, it looks even better now than the original. Back then they had Biden taking an early lead after Super Tuesday and gradually building it up over time. But IIRC, even though they predicted that he would have a solid plurality heading into the convention he fell somewhat short of the required amount to get the nomination on the first ballot. Now that almost everybody else has dropped out he should blow through 1991 and the superdelegates can stay in their hotel bars getting drunk.

I sure could do without any more detours along the way.

[PatSeg]

2. Wow, its all happening so fast

[Amishman]

23. Yup, this is what 'Surging' actually looks like

[PatSeg]

24. A lot of Bernie supporters on Facebook

and Twitter are acting like it is Armageddon. I can't wait until we have a nominee, so we can focus all that energy on Donald Trump and republicans in congress.

[FreepFryer]

4. KEEP THE UNDERDOG MENTALITY, TAKE NOHING FOR GRANTED, HOLD THE LINE

On to victory!

[honest.abe]

5. Projected delegates -- Biden: 2,284 Sanders: 1,482

That looks like a solid majority.

[Turin_C3PO]

10. It's good that it's looking

like he’ll go into the convention with a good majority. A brokered convention would be terrible for our party. I think Bernie supporters will be more likely to go along with Biden if he has a majority.

[Celerity]

12. [phone]

[honest.abe]

15. Yes, agreed.

I not worried about most of Bernie's people. It's his hard core supporters who may cause trouble.

[BidenBacker]

16. Probably not a problem

For every Sanders anarchist we lose we'll probably pick up 2 or 3 moderate Indies.

The vast majority of true progressives will be on board the Biden Bandwagon when the time comes.

[honest.abe]

17. Yes, that makes sense.

I was referring to what some of them might do at the convention like in 2016.. booing, yelling, taping mouths shut, etc.. we really dont need any of that kind of drama this year

[BidenBacker]

19. Fully agree

Some of them are really bad. Whenever I see a Sanders rally on TV I have to check the background to see if there are Bernie signs or Trump ones. What with all their booing and hissing and Bronx cheering whenever another Democrat's name gets mentioned it's sometimes hard to tell the difference.

[Gothmog]

25. That is a good majority

[BidenBacker]

9. Zoom Zoom Joe

Man, I've worked on rockets that didn't go up as fast as Biden's chances for the nomination.

All thanks to Launch Director Clyburn.

[BidenBacker]

11. BTW

Happy Democratic Superdelegate Selection Deadline Day, everybody.

https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention

Thank God it's looking like we're not gonna need them now.

[Gothmog]

13. Is this what they meant when they said no one beats Bernie?

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

20. Now that is a surge Gothmog...the poll is straight up...a right angle!!!!! 90 degrees.

[DeterDeter]

18. even though Biden is likely to be the nominee

I'm just going to ignore these models going forward. They were very volatile/there were some wacky iterations leading up to South Carolina (even though Joe definitely had some unpredictable momentum from South Carolina in terms of how it played out/the margins, a lot of it was hiding in plain site) that I feel gave a distorted via of the race. I hope people stop obsessing over these and just stay the course/GOTV.

[helpisontheway]

22. I'm ignoring them too. Content just knowing that Biden has a very good chance. Nt

[BidenBacker]

21. Just thought of a good theme song for Biden's campaign

You guys remember that old hit by Stealers Wheel?

Trying to make some sense of it all,
But I can see that it makes no sense at all,
Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,
'Cause I don't think that I can take anymore
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you

[Cha]

26. KR!

[Gothmog]

27. sanders is only 2% higher than Tulsi

Link to tweet

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. K&R

[Gothmog]

29. sanders is down to 2%

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

30. This is amusing

Link to tweet