Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumFiveThirtyEight: Biden's chances to win the Primaries moved from 15% to 88% in less than a week!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/I am speechless...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,451 posts)So the odds are probably even higher. MI is going to tell us a lot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dubyadiprecession
(5,703 posts)Obama had nothing but great things to say about him Four years ago. I know this because I saw it in a Bernie approved campaign commercial.
Does this mean Bernies losing The Establishment vote, he is now seeking?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
musicblind
(4,484 posts)Some of us like Bernie, too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
beastie boy
(9,274 posts)he is not going to drop out of the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
sweetloukillbot
(10,997 posts)The model is real bullish towards Biden - more than I would be, I think.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
musicblind
(4,484 posts)But don't be shocked if Sanders squeaks out a surprise win in Michigan.
He's fighting for his life in that state and crazier things have happened this cycle.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
musicblind
(4,484 posts)Sanders wouldn't be moving so many resources to Michigan if it weren't.
That said, take nothing for granted.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tandem5
(2,072 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Likeminded people sense the same thing at the same time so they can switch on a dime. I've seen it countless times. The models and percentages make sense until it happens. Then zoom. I can't figure it out. It's like exhibition season in the NFL.
The mistake is to assume that general elections are even remotely similar. For example, when Lamont overcame the massive deficit to win the primary against Lieberman, there were assertions here and elsewhere that there would be no problem doing the same thing in the general election, once cowardly Lieberman announced he could not allow the primary result to stand.
Polling had Lieberman well ahead in the general election but nobody wanted to believe it, or that it would last. Keep in mind this was pre-Nate Silver. My life was much simpler pre-Nate Silver. I know darn well that if Nate had already been making political forecasts based on numbers then Lieberman would have properly been an overwhelming favorite. The percentage would have been 80+. The ideological numbers and independent numbers were going to thwart Lamont at every turn. The Republican was a farce candidate so no chance he would steal anything significant.
Since we were still in a fragile primitive subjective political wagering world, the odds on Lieberman opened at a comical 5-7 (140 to win 100) and briefly actually dropped to 5/6 (120 to win 100).
It was impossible not to laugh. I was posting the betting link on MyDD while describing it as free money on Lieberman. As so often is the case, what I want to happen politically is exactly the opposite of the proper way to wager. I cleaned up on that race. I'm not sure it isn't the single greatest political wager I have ever seen. It felt like zero chance to lose. The margin ended up being roughly 10 points, which is where it figured all along based on rigid general election realities.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tandem5
(2,072 posts)It's just that 538 did an extremely poor job. I mean consider the hurricane path projection analogy. A week out it could make landfall practically anywhere, the uncertainty cone is huge. As it gets closer and you get more information the cone narrows. That's how it should work here. 538 can't control the speed at which the cone narrows because it can't control when meaningful information comes in so it's not a failure on their part to create a model that keeps a wide cone over a seemingly long period. People seeking instant gratification may not like that, but you cant make something out of nothing -- It's arbitrary to say after three or four primaries that they had enough information to make specific probability claim when the information just wasn't there. They operated their model like a static band and not a narrowing cone. In other words they traded accuracy for precision and ended up with neither.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,029 posts)historic! Thanks, beastie
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bucky
(53,986 posts)What fool would think Bernie Sanders doesn't have a comeback or two in him? One of the great things about Sanders is he doesn't know what quit is. He just goes and goes and fights for a beautiful cause that he believes in down to his marrow.
This ain't over. Not by a long shot. I will vote for Statler or Waldorf, whoever we nominate. But don't any of you kid yourself that either of the two men left standing (from a field of two dozen candidates!) is a pushover.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
beastie boy
(9,274 posts)Their prediction is a moving target. A week ago it showed Bernie miles ahead. What I was bringing attention to was the unprecedented turnaround Biden accomplished in less than a week. And frankly, I don't think Bernie can match it. That doesn't mean Bernie is finished though, not by any means.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,134 posts)having BS as our nominee and was planning to tune out all politics until the general election. And then everything changed. What a relief.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
borgesian
(52 posts)So I guess this is actually bad for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasBushwhacker
(20,159 posts)I don't want to go to a second ballot and involve the super delegates. I realize they serve a purpose, but being part of the "establishment" they will lean towards Biden and the Sanders supporters will erupt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden