Gallup: Republicans hold election enthusiasm edge

[democrattotheend]

I wasn't sure if this belonged here or in General Discussion, but this isn't good at all. Voter enthusiasm overall is higher than in 2016 and on par with 2008, which sounded pretty good. But when you look at the party breakdown, it's not good for us at all. Democratic enthusiasm is on par with 2004 (58% now, 59% then), but Republican enthusiasm is at 64%, higher than ours and higher than in any other year at this time for Republicans.

In 2008 our enthusiasm level was 79% around this time and Republicans' was 44%.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/287456/americans-remain-enthusiastic-2020-election.aspx


It's really a shame that we ended up with, IMO, two relatively weak candidates as the last two men left standing when we had so many promising candidates early on.

[BusyBeingBest]

1. Great.

[RandySF]

2. Ebbs and flows

Don’t sweat it at this point.

[hlthe2b]

3. Not buying it. Even primary turn out has exceeded 2016.

[relayerbob]

6. Agreed

[Cha]

11. I don't believe it, either.

[Turin_C3PO]

4. Not good numbers, agreed, but

I’m thinking Dem enthusiasm will increase as we near election time.

[democrattotheend]

16. That's what I am hoping

I like both of our remaining candidates, but I am having trouble getting enthusiastic about either of them.

That said, it is hard for me to get super excited about any candidates these days. I got spoiled because my second presidential election that I was old enough to vote in had a once-in-a-generation candidate who knew how to really excite and inspire people, combined with the historic nature of his candidacy. Makes it hard for anyone to measure up. And in some ways that's a good thing. I'll be more willing to work to hold the next Democratic president accountable when he does things I don't agree with because I won't put him on a pedestal.

[Turin_C3PO]

19. My second presidential election

was also that inspiring, once-in-a-lifetime candidate. He set a hard to overcome standard for future candidates.

[democrattotheend]

38. Glad it's not just me, lol

[relayerbob]

5. First off ...

A - When was the poll taken?
B - Actual turnout has been at 2008 levels, not 2016 levels
C - %-age of registered Republicans, which has been shrinking under 45
D - With the right candidate, independents and Never Trumpers will be joiing.

So, take this sort of thing with a large bucket of salt

[democrattotheend]

23. You make some good points

But I do think the enthusiasm gap was a big part of why we won and won so big in 2008, and the gap was apparent all through the primary season. It's hard to compare differences in turnout between the parties this year with 2008, because the primaries were wide open on both sides in 2008, at least at the beginning.

Republican voters are more reliable and show up whether they are enthused or not. That's why Republicans push for measures that make it harder to vote - they know their own voters will show up regardless. Plus their voters live in less dense areas where there usually aren't hours-long lines to vote. So Democrats usually need an enthusiasm advantage over Republicans to win.

The one thing that gives me a bit of hope is the 2012 figures. I'm surprised that Democratic enthusiasm was so low in early 2012. The Republicans at that point were more enthused about defeating Obama than we were about getting him re-elected. But at least he had the advantages of incumbency, and he caught a somewhat lucky break at the end when Hurricane Sandy gave him the opportunity to remind people how competent and good in a crisis he was and to appear presidential while Romney was in a tough spot, not being able to do anything about Sandy but looking callous if he kept on campaigning as usual. Of course, Trump would probably bungle something like that, as he is so far with the corona virus, so hopefully incumbency will work against him.

[relayerbob]

47. No doubt enthusiasm matters

But I think polling is becoming less reliable with time, not more, for a wide variety of reasons. Plus, every thing about this election is historically different, so it's not clear how much of past data we can really compare it

[underpants]

24. Dems (women in particular) are crushing them in state races

Virginia is a prime example.

Talk radio just this number they had of the state seats Repubs took during the Obama term. At first I heard it was 600 or 700 then it ended up at 1,000. Granted it’s talk radio so they easily could just lie about it and increase it.

Since the Clustertrump started Dems have won back 500-600. Somewhere in there.

Just crushing them. The Woman’s March was the beginning of something much bigger than anyone saw coming.

[Dem2]

7. We'll see

I'm not buying these stats for this cycle.

[bearsfootball516]

8. This also doesn't consider moderates and independents.

Which, if following the 2018 model, will heavily favor the Democratic nominee.

[Amishman]

12. This, independents are the key

They broke for Trump in 2016, and abandoned the Republicans in 2018.

Given our generic ballot advantage, I remain optimistic

[Lulu KC]

9. Even if our candidates were 10X weaker

they would be 1,000 times stronger than theirs are!

Thank you for posting this! Complacency can kill us.

Unite--stop the bickering.
GOTV. Even when Republicans didn't have to vote on Tuesday, plenty did.
Address voter suppression.
Keep our eyes on the ball.

[beachbumbob]

10. i don't see this when you consider super tuesday democratic turnout, remember the media is no

friend of democrats and same with gallup who under estimates democrats all the time.


don;t let reality be swayed by such things

[Squinch]

13. ME: Media is desperate for a horse race.

[treestar]

14. Enthusiasm is hard to measure

I don't see that as a valid thing to poll. A candidate is not "weak" if most of the Democrats voted for them in the primaries.

[democrattotheend]

29. I disagree

Primaries are not always reflective of how the general will go. And turnout in the primaries is often a better measure than results. Turnout so far this year has been better than 2016 but worse than 2008.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

15. Gallup leans Repub n/t

[William769]

17. Your opinion is completely wrong.

In what universe can the two weak candidates be the only one's left standing?

[FreepFryer]

18. Bullshit (Nt)

[PatSeg]

20. That number would be among people

who still identify as republicans. I think a lot of sane republicans have changed parties.

[vercetti2021]

21. Just take this into consideration

We are in a primary battle right now so yeah enthusiasm is not going to be there right now I mean it's only March and remember do you know this is Gallup they do tend to lean Republican quite a bit

[BootinUp]

22. Don't really buy it. Nt

[underpants]

25. I actually giggled a little when I read the subject line

It’s Gallup.

Releasing this today was either a Friday “oh yeah...but...” or something for talk radio to avoid this really bad week they had.

[Anon-C]

26. Loll!

[herding cats]

27. We're at up 15pts over 2016.

Also, it'll be interesting to see what these numbers turn into post Super Tuesday.

[democrattotheend]

33. True, but so are the Republicans

Which may not matter as much, since their voters are more reliable, but it's still not great.

[herding cats]

40. I suspect a good part of it was how early the poll was done.

Republicans have their candidate, we had 6 at the time of this poll.

It'll be nice to see if Biden's surprise comeback influences these numbers.

I ran into quite a few people who were feeling beaten down about his assumed candidacy's demise when I was making calls for Super Tuesday. It's always disheartening to think your pick is toast before you even get to vote for them.

[democrattotheend]

43. That's a good point

I hope you end up being right. It could also be that some people were less enthused because they were concerned about whether Bernie was electable or found him too far left for their own taste, although the flip side of that is that his supporters are probably less enthusiastic now than they were a week ago, even though I suspect most of them will vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Personally, though, if I were polled I'd probably express less enthusiasm now than I would have a few weeks ago. I would have been more enthusiastic about Warren or Buttigieg (and maybe even Klobuchar) than I am about either of our remaining choices.

[Under The Radar]

28. Confusing. Exit polls have shown 2008 turnout numbers everywhere except Iowa.

Is there a difference in the data sampling?

[Moderateguy]

30. GOOD

Take NOTHING FOR GRANTED. The only way we rid ourselves of this menace is GOTV in record numbers

[C_U_L8R]

31. Yeah. Not buying it all

We’re just beginning to rally.

[padah513]

32. I believe this

Like I believe today's job report

[Qutzupalotl]

34. If a smaller group is more enthusiastic,

that won’t make much difference. An enthusiastic vote counts the same as a begrudging vote.

What matters is turnout. If people see voting as a duty rather than a fun time, they’ll still do it.

And you are dead wrong about Biden being weak. He’s got the highest favorability of all the remaining candidates on either side of the aisle.

[democrattotheend]

44. He's likeable, to be sure

And I think he'd make a great president. But he's never been a great campaigner.

[Qutzupalotl]

54. Likability is huge.

Biden won several Super Tuesday states without campaigning there or spending much if anything. If most people already know him and like him, no further convincing is necessary.

If, as I suspect, Coronavirus fears keep people from attending large rallies this summer, he might just be the perfect nominee for us.

[democrattotheend]

55. That's a good point

I hadn't thought about the corona virus depressing attendance at (or maybe even forcing candidates not to hold) large rallies.

[abqtommy]

35. Nah. reTHUGS don't have any enthusiasm for ANY election. What they do have enthusiasm for

is the ratfuckery that they rely on to turn any election into victory for them. At least that's my viewpoint...

[ibegurpard]

36. Nope

does not compute with the record primary turnouts we've seen. Not buying it.

[Thekaspervote]

37. There are lots of polls that say otherwise

Swing states vital to winning

Link to tweet

?s=21

This one head that head match up

Link to tweet

?s=21

Another head to head match up

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/486328-poll-democratic-candidate-wins-in-2020-general-election-match

Not sure why you are calling Biden weak!! That’s pitiful

[Kingofalldems]

39. Record turnout in SC.

[democrattotheend]

61. Not exactly

The raw numbers were higher but the percentage of registered voters was lower. And even if turnout exactly matched 2008, that wouldn't be all that great because SC is an open primary, and in 2008 the Republicans had a competitive primary. So turnout in our primary should have been higher if anything than 2008, in terms of percentage of registered voters not just raw numbers.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article240801506.html

[Kingofalldems]

41. 2018

[getagrip_already]

42. Gallop.... I didn't need to read further

They have fallen deep into the dark void. I haven't seen a believable poll from them in a long time.

[MoonlitKnight]

45. Meh vs Armageddon

Will shrug shoulders and vote meh.

Time to concentrate on crushing Republicans on the local, state and congressional level.

[Jim__]

46. A pre-SuperTuesday poll?

The latest poll was conducted Feb. 17-28, after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, but before former Vice President Joe Biden's strong performance in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.

Gee, I'm sure nothing's changed since then.

[Awsi Dooger]

48. It's always preferable to be supporting someone than opposing someone

I have no idea how this is not understood. Negativity is not an attractant. Bloomberg is mostly wasting those millions if he dumps then all on anti-Trump ads. That opinion is baked.

The other side has a lowlife human being but he is an incumbent who they overwhelmingly support to feverish intensity. Record approval rating among Republicans. Meanwhile we've been trying to figure out the best "Anyone But" candidate.

ABB was moronic in 2004. I emphasized that throughout. Now ABT is equally moronic. We lacked an ideal candidate. I was desperately hoping someone like Beto would emerge, someone who our party could rally around, instead of the fragile garbage of merely opposing the other side.

The reason incumbents win almost without exception is that their party is fervently supporting their guy. Those campaigns and commercials spotlight everything he has (supposedly) accomplished in office. Others get caught up in it also, the swing independents. It is the reason I've always emphasized that the number one requirement to defeat a presidential incumbent is charisma, someone who can grasp the electorate and make them determined to vote for him, without care who the incumbent is.

We didn't go that route. And make no mistake...we are the underdog in November.

It was sickening that our most charismatic candidate happened to be a socialist. It should have been impossible to play out that way but our bench suffered so long once we lost all the governorships.

Voters in 2008 were positive toward Obama. That was revealed in every poll. They were pro-Obama votes, not anti-McCain votes. Heck, you had nearly 30% of Obama voters saying McCain was qualified to be president. That is an unheard of number for that category from the opposing party. Contrast to 2016 when only 5% of Trump voters said Hillary was qualified to be president.

[democrattotheend]

52. Exactly

In 2008, Democrats were fired up after 8 years of Bush, but we also had two historic, groundbreaking candidates, and Obama was incredibly charismatic and generated so much enthusiasm. He gave us something to vote for. This year it feels like we are more focused on voting against Trump. And sure, Trump gives us plenty to vote against, but so did Bush and it wasn't enough.

[Turin_C3PO]

57. I think this year's different though.

Hatred of Trump is wide and deep. His approval rating is never above 45% and it’s usually lower. There will be a lot of people turning out to get Trump out of office. Plus, Biden is a likable guy. I think Trump’s the underdog this year, despite Obama’s good economy still roaring along.

[ibegurpard]

59. Coronavirus is doing a number on the economy

[Turin_C3PO]

62. Yes, true.

The only upside to this virus is that it may help boot Trump out of office.

[ibegurpard]

65. It's actually one of the scarier things about it

the impact it's going to have on society at large and the economy. What the public is going to allow to happen to keep themselves safe. I worry about those kinds of things more than I worry about the virus itself. I lived through the AIDS crisis and lost a number of loved ones.

[democrattotheend]

63. Hatred of Bush was too

Bush may seem not so bad now compared to Trump, but at the time I think we were just as motivated to beat him as we are to beat Trump. I know I certainly was. At the time it was hard to imagine a president being worse.

[Turin_C3PO]

64. There's some evidence

that there was cheating in Ohio that gave Bush the election. I agree that hatred of Bush was intense but I’m seeing even non-political people expressing their hatred of Trump.

[democrattotheend]

66. IDK about that

But I am hoping that four years of Trump and his improbable victory last time will stamp out the complacency among Democrats that plagued us last time, especially among the youngest voters who grew up having a Democratic president and didn't remember how bad it was the last time a Republican was in power, so they felt free to vote third party or not show up at all.

OTOH, Republicans seem more united around Trump than they were 4 years ago. For example, Eric Erickson at Red State refused to support Trump four years ago but said he'll vote for him this time. There were others like him who have "come home" in the past four years. The fact that Trump as gotten credit for Obama's economic recovery and that so far there haven't been too many major immediate consequences of Trump embarrassing us on the world stage and that he has delivered on things like tax cuts and conservative judges have brought home at least some of the "Never Trumpers."

[ibegurpard]

67. they were never going to vote for a Democrat anyway

the best we could've hoped for from them was not voting, write-ins, or third-party candidates.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

68. Your insights are convincing as usual. One sad thing to note about charisma...

2008-2016 Biden was a very charismatic/captivating speaker in my opinion. He is now definitely not what he was then. I'm hoping (but not expecting) he pulls a cognitive Keyser Soze after the primaries. That being said, when he doesn't gaffe or slip he absolutely still commands a greater knowledge and command of facts than Spanky. That orange fool is still in the ignorant/know-nothing-know-it-all snake oil salesman doublespeak mode he's always been in, only this time his cognitive decline keeps him from even being able to hide it well.

[Midwestern Democrat]

69. Agreed. Honestly, Democratic bench development has been pretty poor since the '94 disaster.

For awhile, the lack of development of new political stars was masked by the fact that the party had an existing stable of men of stature who had made their names long before 1994 - Gore, Kerry, Gephardt, Biden, Bradley, etc. But here's the deal - you can't coast on an aging stable of old stars forever - eventually due to age, death, and changing times - that well is going to dry up. That is as equally true for politics as it is for the film and music industries.

I'll say this, win or lose in November, the party better start thinking about the future much more than they have - IMO, it's reached a point where the younger Democrats are going to have to start getting a lot more aggressive about pushing the old guard off the stage - prior generations were certainly much less passive about it .

[rockfordfile]

49. This is just right-wing propaganda. Gallup is a right-wing company.

[zackymilly]

50. It will be find if we get unity and everyone votes. n/t

[Faux pas]

51. I don't

believe any polls anymore. I don't see what the point of them is. Is it meant to gather the sheeple and trick the non critical thinkers? It's all a game and I'm sick of playing. So there too lol

[MFM008]

53. hate is a better motivator

BELIEVE me.

[JaneQPublic]

56. Most Dems are in a process of transition...

...resulting from falling in love with one candidate to falling in line with the presumptive nominee.

Before we can be enthusiastic, many of us first have to work through the stages of grief.

[uponit7771]

60. ***BAD POLLING*** They didn't add in never Trumper republicans just the "pure" MAGA Cultist

Gallup should take the same sample size of republicans from 2008 and get back with us

Of course the ever shrinking declaration of republican party is having an effect

[LongtimeAZDem]

70. Turnout is a better indicator than polling

Democratic turnout surges on Super Tuesday