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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:33 PM Mar 2020

According to Nate Silver's 538 forecast, No one beats Bernie Sanders. Chances of winning...

...on the first ballot:

No one has a 1 in 10 chance of winning on the first ballot
Sanders has only a 1 in 50 chance of winning on the first ballot.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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According to Nate Silver's 538 forecast, No one beats Bernie Sanders. Chances of winning... (Original Post) George II Mar 2020 OP
Wow padah513 Mar 2020 #1
Biden has a 7 in 8 chance!!! MLAA Mar 2020 #2
Tulsi looks like... Mike Nelson Mar 2020 #3
Ha, ha, ha! PatSeg Mar 2020 #4
KR Cha Mar 2020 #5
Title in OP can be read two ways! DonaldsRump Mar 2020 #6
. George II Mar 2020 #7
You made me gasp George. MontanaMama Mar 2020 #8
OMG! You nut! NurseJackie Mar 2020 #9
Looking at the images, Hav Mar 2020 #10
I believe Nate Silver is proven to pull for the RW. Hortensis Mar 2020 #11
I think you might be misreading Nate's intent. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #12
Sanders is now down to a 2% chance of winning Gothmog Mar 2020 #13
Your OP is unintentionally misleading! yardwork Mar 2020 #14
 

padah513

(2,493 posts)
1. Wow
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:35 PM
Mar 2020

That'll leave a mark

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MLAA

(17,230 posts)
2. Biden has a 7 in 8 chance!!!
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:35 PM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mike Nelson

(9,940 posts)
3. Tulsi looks like...
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:38 PM
Mar 2020

... Hillary!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

PatSeg

(47,168 posts)
4. Ha, ha, ha!
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:38 PM
Mar 2020

It took me a second to get what you were saying, "no one" beats Bernie Sanders!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DonaldsRump

(7,715 posts)
6. Title in OP can be read two ways!
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:40 PM
Mar 2020

Reminds me of a favorite evaluation/reference to give a former employee seeking a new job who was terrible at the old job. HR folks recommend to say "No one would be better for this new job"!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MontanaMama

(23,285 posts)
8. You made me gasp George.
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:43 PM
Mar 2020

Don't DO that!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
9. OMG! You nut!
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:44 PM
Mar 2020


Made my heart speed up a little.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hav

(5,969 posts)
10. Looking at the images,
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:46 PM
Mar 2020

No one is obviously getting pushed by the DNC.
Also, Gabbard has really closed that gap to BS.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
11. I believe Nate Silver is proven to pull for the RW.
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 06:52 PM
Mar 2020

That's based on a very long, consistent pattern of analyses both consistently negative toward Biden, often ridiculously so, and later proven to have been very wrong.

Most have advanced the claim for the the past year that Biden was actually losing while while all polls had him far ahead, all alone in a top tier of one and never less than double digits ahead of all others. But losing all the time, and isn't it clever of these experts to see it! Articles far more often than not have attacked the idea of electablity, and predictions made presumably influence voters at the time they read them but are typically found after to be predictably wrong.

Textual analysis is where, of necessity, their biggest spin is made. How about a "where's Waldo" example for a hit job that has to somehow not blatantly contradict the numbers even while being contradicted by them:

HEADLINE: What Biden’s Big South Carolina Win Might Mean For Sanders

FIRST SENTENCE: "Saturday was Joe Biden’s first-ever win in a presidential primary or caucus." A magnificent turnout in support of a candidate who was always far ahead here, and this is the intro?

FIRST EXPLANATION OFFERED (OF 5): "This was a “dead cat bounce” for Biden because voters were sympathetic to him in one of his best states. It may have been a one-off occurrence." Followed by paragraphs of negative support for that idea.

There's more, the more positive they have to admit for Biden, the lower. The fifth and last, ass-covering possibility, even though it's closest to what happened very predictably in both foresight and hindsight, is at the bottom for those who read that far.

This was preceded on Feb 28 by their forecast that Sanders would win Super Tuesday by very large numbers over Biden, explaining that Sanders, Biden and someone else split the black vote and predicting Sanders would do literally twice as well as Biden in California, who would though possibly clear 15%...! Can't blame them if the numbers said that, right? But their explanation is that polls weren't performed to provide the numbers. So apparently they just had to wing it, or "hunch" it as Trump put his analysis of coronavirus risks.

And typical,

Why Younger Democrats Are Overwhelmingly Rejecting Biden Turned out "overwhelmingly" overstated.

Politics Podcast: Biden Fights For A Win In The South Carolina Debate Rather negative report of what most others agreed was a powerful , and decisive, win?

I don't let Republican agents tell me what to think.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,418 posts)
12. I think you might be misreading Nate's intent.
Fri Mar 6, 2020, 07:21 PM
Mar 2020

The idea behind the five options is to show a wide range of possibilities, from the least likely to the most likely, and most optimistic for one candidate to the most optimistic for the other. The one option is intentionally pessimistic about Biden because that's the idea behind the five scenarios

He did the same thing with Super Tuesday. The choices basically range from Sanders overperforming to Biden overperforming, with the actual result about halfway between the good for Biden and great for Biden options (scenarios 1 & 2 below).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/five-scenarios-for-how-super-tuesday-could-go/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(144,832 posts)
13. Sanders is now down to a 2% chance of winning
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 02:23 AM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

yardwork

(61,526 posts)
14. Your OP is unintentionally misleading!
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 10:11 AM
Mar 2020

Consider editing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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