Super Tuesday Part 2

[RDavisJ1]

So far the polls look as such by 538

Idaho: No polls caucus 20D
MI: Biden 38 Sanders 31 125D
MS: No recent polls but strongly Biden +47 in July/19 36D
MO: Biden 48 Sanders 26 68D
ND: No polls caucus 14D
WA: Biden 30 Sanders 32 (Will discuss) 89D

Super Tuesday part 2 is right around the corner and after our last Super Tuesday, let's take a look at what the forecast looks like. Looking at the cursory data of polls and delegate counts, it looks like Tuesday is going to be a long night for Bernie Sanders which is exactly what he needed to not have happen.

Politics is about momentum and moving forward. That is how voters look to see who is strong and how donors loosen their wallets. Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Bernie Sanders run away train was supposed to be racking up delegates. That was the conventional wisdom a week before Super Tuesday. The reality was much different.

Heading into Super Tuesday part 2 delegate counts are not what anyone could have predicted. Joe Biden has a healthy 664 to Sanders 573. This is not where Bernie wanted to be after Super Tuesday because the upcoming Super Tuesday promises to relieve even more wind from the Sanders sails.

Mississippi has no recent polling, but Biden had a +47 advantage as of last July. There is not reason to believe that has changed. So much so, Bernie cancelled his plans and headed directly to Michigan.

The next sets of polls to close will be Michigan and Missouri. In 2016, Michigan delivered a big win over Clinton to the Sanders camp. They were hoping for a repeat performance and as of right now, that doesn't appear to be materializing. The consolidation seems to be strengthening behind Biden with a 7 point lead over Sanders. Sanders camp believes their message of Joe voting for NAFTA is the winning message.

Former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm begs to differ with her endorsement for Sanders. "I’m beyond thrilled to endorse Joe Biden. When Michigan was on its knees during the bankruptcies in the auto industry, Joe Biden was our champion inside the Obama Administration. Through the auto rescue, he made sure a million auto manufacturing jobs — in Michigan and throughout the industrial Midwest — were saved. "

Missouri is a conservative state even for Democrats so seeing the polls for Biden should be no shock to anyone.

The trouble is the big prize of the night, Michigan with its 125 delegates and Missouris 68 delegate make up a big pot of prizes for Biden.

North Dakota and Idaho have no polling and Bernie won it 2016. Bernie does well with the caucus. The problem for him is Idaho and North Dakota combined make up only 34 Delegates. One side wrinkle for Idaho is that Hillary Clinton was wildly disliked there and the Boise Mayor endorsed Pete Buttigieg who has gone on to endorse Joe Biden.

Lastly, we come to Washington. This is where Bernie could find some salve for a bad night. Washington is favoring Sanders by 2 points. That's not a lot of points but Sanders needs a win in the column on Super Tuesday even if only for perception.

All in all in promises to be a grim evening for the Sanders camp unless they can make inroads into Michigan. Bernie has several events that are propping up his NAFTA Joe bad, Sanders good efforts. But will it be enough to a state that was losing jobs and going bankrupt when Uncle Joe came through saving their jobs?

At the end of the night, based on projections and trends it will look something like this.

Joe Biden
Mississippi
Michigan
Missouri

Bernie Sanders
North Dakota
Idaho

Washington is a toss up state.

Delegate wise, Joe looks to add to his count 250 to 300 delegate to Bernies 52-100 delegates.

If you're a Sanders supporter, you really want this Super Tuesday over, but spoiler, the following week is looking worse with states like Ohio and Florida showing strong Biden support.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. Per AP: Joe Biden has won more delegates than Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday.

Link to tweet

[Moderateguy]

2. Bernie's biggest problem is that WA will be one of the last to report

That’s his best state, but unless he wins MI, the M$M will have spent all night talking about what a bad night it was for Sanders. That kills momentum

[RDavisJ1]

4. True

But arguably, if Sanders does lose Michigan, it's a bad night for him. He has to hold onto Michigan. If he can't win Michigan, that is going to remove a lot of leverage from his arsenal of power given MI, WI, PA need to be flipped back to blue. As a West Coaster, Washington will go Democrat regardless of the nominee. Michigan is a must win for Bernie.

[Indykatie]

5. Why Do Folks Think Bernie Will Win WA - He Lost the Primary 47% to 54%.

Yes he won the caucus with 72% but that means jack sh*t when it comes to Dems actually getting to vote as we saw in his 47% loss to Hillary. I expect Biden to win in WA too.

[Moderateguy]

6. I didn't say Bernie was definitely going to win WA...

Statistically, that’s his best chance of winning a state on the 10th

[RDavisJ1]

9. Using Polling Data

Analysis is based off of available polling data. If Biden wins Washington, that's really bad news for Sanders especially if he loses Michigan. If Biden sweeps everything but Idaho and North Dakota, by the next week, it would probably be the end of his viability.

[ucrdem]

3. Joe will probably get a few more dynamite endorsements over the weekend

meaning Tuesday could be another show-stopper. Sure hope so!

[mvd]

7. Bernie had a surprise win in MI before, and..

I think he can do it again with his message. He also can win WA. If he wins those, I’d be happy. If he loses every state, then it is probably over. He needs some momentum for the future contests. We have seen how fortunes change, but he needs hold his own Tuesday.

[Moderateguy]

8. He needs momentum bad...

He needs to win MI even if by 1%

[mvd]

10. Yeah, it looks pretty grim even now and if..

He does lousy on Tuesday then I will feel like the supporters of the other candidates who dropped out. I will be expecting and preparing to support Biden.

[Moderateguy]

11. I believe in vote blue no matter what...

If you feel like you cannot wholeheartedly support Biden then concentrate on your state or local democratic candidates. That’s what I am planning to do if Sanders is the nominee

[mvd]

12. I'd support Biden. I hate Trump with a passion

Biden might not push for some of my ideas, but Trump has to go.

[Moderateguy]

13. Agreed.