New Washington state poll by SurveyUSA finds Sanders no longer leading

[highplainsdem]

Sanders had been 5 points ahead, in January (26% to 21% for Biden). He's now 1 point behind Biden (35% to 36%).

They'd asked about who had already voted, and for whom. Sanders was ahead with those who already voted. Biden is ahead with those who didn't vote earlier but are 100% certain they'll return their ballot by the deadline. So this matches results elsewhere that showed Sanders benefiting if the vote was cast before Biden's amazing SC win.

There hasn't been very much polling in Washington state, judging by 538's page for the state, but there was also a poll in February, after IA and NH had voted, showing Sanders 6 points ahead then, at 21%, followed by Bloomberg at 15%, Warren, Klobuchar, and finally Biden, at only 10%.

So this has been a huge change for Biden, in a very progressive state.



https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/elections/king-5-news-poll-washington-voters-split-between-biden-sanders/281-4806e740-809e-4c9b-9d21-2e4bfb4076b1


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=017c2b2d-c3b9-4315-9f9d-874cd64ba945

[bluedye33139]

1. The Seattle PI story from late February was interesting

Support for Sanders was much lower this year than it was in 2016. Much lower. Many people who supported Sanders in Washington State in 2016 declined to support his 2020 campaign.
https://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/Washington-primary-poll-Sanders-Bloomberg-Biden-15086519.php

When people were trying to interpret the 21% figure as a win, I had to shake my head.

[Cha]

2. Hope it not only holds but gets Stronger..

TY, hpd!

[customerserviceguy]

3. Also, ballots went out

early last week for WA. I would imagine that a goodly number of them were mailed in before Super Tuesday.

[pnwmom]

5. Mine has been sitting on the table, waiting. I didn't want to cast a vote I'd regret

because I knew anything could happen on March 3. And it did.

Now that we're down to only 2, the choice is suddenly stark.

[Demsrule86]

9. I waited too... we could have early voted since February in Ohio.

[evertonfc]

4. I think If Joe can handle MI and Florida

he will be the nominee or, at minimum, have a delegate lead going into convention. I don't think Bernie will make a stink if he simply loses via votes. Some of his supporters will. They feel entitled to promises that Bernie could never deliver.

[LiberalFighter]

6. So it was 26 Sanders and 21 Biden...

Where are the other 53?

[highplainsdem]

8. There were a lot more candidates then.

[SidDithers]

7. If it's close, it doesn't matter who wins...

If Bernie doesn't start winning some states by 15-25%, he's just going to fall further and further behind in delegate count.

Other states, like MS, are going to be big net delegate winners for Biden. Bernie needs to offset those Biden delegate hauls or he's done.

If Bernie is a net delegate loser on Mar 10, then the race is over.
If Bernie is a net delegate winner on Mar 10, then his campaign lives for another week.
Mar 17 will be the end of Bernie 2020.

Sid

[Demsrule86]

10. I agree Sid...

[Blue_true]

14. Sanders is fast running out of big states where he can smash Biden.

Only Wisconsin fits that bill. In all others, he will lose or not get enough margin to haul in a lot of pledged delegates.

[SidDithers]

15. Yup. That's how I see it too...

and Biden has a bunch of states that will fall into the "big win" category, netting him dozens of delegates.

And WI is a month away, with big Biden states like FL, GA, LA happening first.

Sid

[LizBeth]

11. That is big news.

[A Brand New World]

12. Good news!

My husband and I voted today in WA for VP Biden! Mail voting is the best way. I just don’t understand why all states don’t do as WA does.

[BidenBacker]

13. Biden should do very well again next Tuesday

and then this thing could really be all but wrapped up on March 17th. Which would be fitting for Irish Joe on St Patrick's Day.

I just pray that he has a decent debate in between the two big dates. I've been a Biden supporter for POTUS since around 2006 and love the guy but as we all know he has always been somewhat gaffe-prone so as long as he stays away from any galactically stupid ones we should be okay. Knock on wood.