COVID 19 fears and turnout: What do you think?

[pat_k]

On Super Tuesday, COVID 19 fears didn't affect turnout -- 2020 turnout was higher than 2016 in most states. Perhaps some people who might have voted stayed away, but it doesn't appear to have had a widespread effect.

Since then, fears seem to have increased. Over the last few days, some state and county health departments issued guidelines advising people over 60 to stay home as much as possible. Yesterday, the CDC did the same thing. From a 3/6 CNN article:

The CDC guidance comes as two top infectious disease experts with ties to the federal government have advised people over 60 and those with underlying health problems to strongly consider avoiding activities that involve large crowds -- activities such as traveling by airplane, going to movie theaters, attending family events, shopping at crowded malls, and going to religious services.

Going to the polls to vote certainly seems to qualify as an "activity that involves large crowds" (or at least it can at larger precincts).

Do you think fears are likely to depress overall turnout March 10?

If so, do you think older people would be most likely to stay away from the polls?

What about urban/suburban vs. rural? Are voters in more densely populated areas more likely to stay home because the polling places are likely to be more crowded than in a rural precincts?

[evertonfc]

1. I think most people

No effect on turnout. Now, maybe if it were in late Spring but I live in a very large city and its not even a topic of conversation.

[pat_k]

8. Interesting

I guess I sort of assumed it would be high as a topic of conversation all over... but that's coming from the perspective of a Washingtonian.

It has definitely changed things here and is at the front of the minds of many. People are being a little nuts -- buying out supplies, etc. Companies are having people work from home. Recommendations for people over sixty to stay home over a week ago, etc.

But, since we are vote by mail, it will make no difference here.

[dewsgirl]

2. At this point and I know most here will hate me for it, it should

be postponed. I also know, there are a few here that will back me up.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. You think the general election should be postponed?

Or the upcoming primaries? I’d maybe agree about the primaries but no way should we postpone the November election. Getting Trump out of office is a greater emergency than the virus, IMO.

[dewsgirl]

14. Of course the primaries, good God certainly not the election.

I keep thinking of the Love Actually cue cards on SNL.
Who knew how prophetic this might be one day?

[cwydro]

15. No way.

We don’t want to head down that slippery slope.

[dewsgirl]

17. I meant just for now, we already have close calls or maybe

Last edited Sun Mar 8, 2020, 05:42 AM - Edit history (1)

not coming out of AIPAC, God knows how many of these events/meetings/dinners/fundraisers, etc. we don't hear about. It's in D.C. our candidates are in the highest risk group. You know I am fully aware of the danger here, we wouldn't be in this mess if it weren't for Trump being president. We could be mirroring South Korea and trying to get ahead of this thing, unfortunately we are not. We are mirroring Iran/Italy, it's only a matter of time before they start getting ill, at this point that time is rapidly approaching.

[Skid Rogue]

3. I'm concerned... but I'm more worried about November.

[pat_k]

13. I won't start worrying about November until things...

... unfold more.

Before too long, we'll have a better understanding of the spread, and know more about the effectiveness of any efforts to contain. (Even though the U.S. is way behind on detecting, tracing contacts, and quarantining, we could get our act together enough in the coming month to start to limit spread. I don't think we've completely missed our chance to have an effect.)

[Jersey Devil]

4. One thing I did notice about the voting lines on Super Tues

People were leaving a lot of space in front and behind, with voters spaced about 4-6 feet apart. I saw that in several tV shots at various polling places.

[pat_k]

9. That's what lines at many grocery check outs are looking like here in WA

It's good that people are taking precautions.

I don't have a sense of how many likely voters would actually stay home in the states voting Tue. There's understandable worry and tension her in WA, and many are taking "stay home as much as possible" seriously. (There are some stocking up like we are facing a nuclear strike, but most aren't going nuts about it). However, we're vote-by-mail state, so there will be no effect (except that we using a wet sponge to seal ballots instead of tongue).

Since Missouri is the only state voting (aside from WA) that has a confirmed case, concerns about infection may be pretty low and have little effect.

[AlexSFCA]

6. gop voters are much older on average and will be most affected

[left-of-center2012]

7. I don't know if long lines is the same as large crowds

[pat_k]

11. As noted above...

... people may tend to stay further away from the person in front of them and don't circulate like they might in a crowd or social event, so lines are different in those respects.

But, depending on the set up, polling place visitors may share pencils, pens when signing in, touch the same surfaces (e.g., sign-in page), and so on, so there is a risk of picking something up. Nobody gives much thought to the possibility of picking up a cold or flu when they vote, but when you add a possibility that the pathogen you pick up could be more serious, that changes things. (Even if probability is so much lower.)

[Blue_true]

10. I have a system. Every time I go to a location that I can't control

I wash my hands thoroughly once back in safe zones. That is what I do. I will in-person vote as normal before the Florida primary.

[pat_k]

12. I do the same at the grocery.

I know where the restroom is and stop in on the way out. (A habit I developed when I moved in with 83 yo mom... don't want to put her at risk by bringing anything home.)

Do you think a vast majority of people feel the same way (i.e., take precautions, but get out and vote anyway)?

[Blue_true]

16. In Florida, unfortunately, I see a lot of men that don't wash their hands

at all after touching stuff or even using toilets. I don't know about women. I would say that not everyone takes precautions.