538: Our Final Forecast For Today's Primaries

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

With six states headed to the ballot box today, it’s once again time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to see where things stand.

Today’s contests are divided between those that former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly win (99 percent chance) and those where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a clearer chance. As the table below shows, Biden is a strong favorite to win four of the seven contests, including three of the four biggest delegate hauls: Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi, as well as North Dakota. But Biden is also a more modest favorite over Sanders in the other three contests — Washington, Idaho and Democrats Abroad — and there’s plenty of room for an upset victory from Sanders. (Especially Democrats Abroad, which has not been polled and is especially hard to model.)

Many of these states were competitive for Sanders in 2016, too. He won Michigan as part of a shocking victory, came super close to winning Missouri and won Idaho and Washington by large margins. This time, though, polls and demographic trends point to Biden’s advantage across the map.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-todays-primaries/

[frazzled]

1. Democrats Abroad has only 13 pledged delegates

Idaho has 20. Winning those, even by a large margin isn't going to be much of a prize.

[George II]

2. Their actual delegate forecasts:

Michigan - Biden 77.8, Sanders 47.2
Washington - Biden 45.4, Sanders 42.9
Missouri - Biden 43.2, Sanders 24.8
Mississippi - Biden 27.2, Sanders 8.8
Idaho - Biden 11.4, Sanders 8.6
North Dakota - Biden 8.8, Sanders 5.2
Democrats Abroad - Biden 7.1, Sanders 5.9

That's 220.9 to 143.4, or roughly 70 delegate gain for Biden.