The current state of the Biden-Sanders delegate math, explained

[George II]

Biden’s delegate advantage is growing, and Sanders is rapidly running out of time.

By Andrew [e-mail] Mar 11, 2020, 1:50pm EDT

A round of defeats for Bernie Sanders in Tuesday’s primary contests has put the Vermont senator in a deeper delegate hole — and his scenario for a comeback against Joe Biden is growing more implausible.

“Last night, obviously, was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view,” Sanders said at a press conference in Burlington, Vermont, on Wednesday.

It’s true. Biden didn’t just win the most states — he won several landslides. Biden has expanded his lead over Sanders from 97 delegates to 162. Though delegate allocations are far from final, the Associated Press estimates the former vice president will get +29 in Mississippi, +20 in Michigan, and +17 in Missouri. Our partners at Decision Desk have a slightly more conservative overall estimate but predict a similar net advantage for Biden.

Sanders did score a victory by taking home the North Dakota caucuses, but the outcome was narrow enough and the state is small enough that he’ll just get a net delegate advantage of +2. Biden, though, won Idaho’s primary, and got his own net delegate advantage of +2 there — canceling out Sanders’s tiny gain.

How to understand the Biden-Sanders delegate count

Though Biden won 10 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday, the delegate lead he emerged with wasn’t insurmountable. About 62 percent of pledged delegates remained to be allotted, so it would be possible for Sanders to make a comeback, if he started winning.

But Sanders would have to do it fast. Though voting in Democratic primaries continues through June, the calendar is frontloaded, with contests piled on both Super Tuesday and the two weeks afterward. After this Tuesday’s primary, just 53 percent of delegates remain. After next Tuesday, March 17, just 38.5 percent will be left.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/21174257/biden-sanders-delegate-count-primaries

[polichick]

1. Helpful. Nobody told Biden to drop out when his campaign...

was dead in the water - and nobody should tell Bernie to drop out now.

[George II]

2. When was Biden's campaign dead in the water?

[polichick]

4. When he high-tailed it out of NH.

[Cha]

8. Like BS "hig-tailed" it out of Mississippi?

[polichick]

9. The difference and point is that nobody asked Biden to drop out.

[Cha]

10. My point is.. BS "high-tailed" it out of Mississippi

since you brought it up.

[polichick]

11. As you can see, I answered a question. My point was made...

in my first post.

[Cha]

28. "High-tailed" it out of Mississippi.. and Went to

Michigan.. wasn't even viable in Mississippi.

Sanders has dropped below Statewide viability in Mississippi

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287655939

Bernie Sanders Cancels Mississippi Rally, Shifting Focus to Michigan

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287634688

Biden adds Michigan to win total, delivering blow to Sanders

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142444957

Biden's campaign was considered dead in the water, after losing only 3 states, by the media and here.. he did "high-taile" it out of NH.. he had other states to focus on.

[Demsrule86]

21. Biden was counted out some in the media said he wouldn't make it to Carolina...but Biden had no

money so unless he won...he would have to drop out...Sanders should drop out because there is no path for him.

[still_one]

26. +++

[Demsrule86]

31. Thank you...

[still_one]

32. What you said was exactly right

[George II]

24. He "high-tailed it out of NH" as the voting was drawing to a close ON PRIMARY day....

And that was only after the second state was voting - there were/are still 55 to go. His campaign certainly wasn't "dead in the water".

His only remaining event was at a thank-you reception for his campaign workers that evening.

On the other hand, Sanders "high-tailed it" out of Mississippi two days before the primary, cancelling a racial inequality forum, in order to campaign in Michigan.

The results? He lost EVERY county in MS (82) plus he lost EVERY county in MI (83).

[W_HAMILTON]

12. Biden always had a path to victory with South Carolina in his back pocket...

...what is Sanders's path to victory at this point? What states can he win overwhelmingly to change the current course of the nomination? Hell, what is the next state he is even going to win?

[polichick]

14. As the op points out, it ain't over yet...

Bernie has the right to continue - whatever happens.

[W_HAMILTON]

18. I see your response didn't include a potential path for Sanders to win the nomination.

Yes, anyone and everyone has a right to continue -- the question is whether they should, when doing so inevitably hurts the eventual nominee's chances at beating Trump and taking back the White House. Sanders, of all people, should know the answer to this after watching how his prolonging the inevitable in 2016 hurt Hillary and helped lead to Trump's election. Every dollar and minute spent on a prolonged and unnecessary nomination battle is a dollar and minute not spent on fighting Trump.

[polichick]

22. I didn't expect Biden to drop out - or any of the others...

imo Bernie knows what he wants to accomplish and will do what he wants too.

[totodeinhere]

25. I'm not so sure that Bernie's staying in the race is helping Trump.

I suspect that Joe will have plenty of money to wage a GE campaign, but in the mean time Bernie is allowing voters in later primaries to have a voice in the process which I think is very important.

[Demsrule86]

15. At the time Sanders had won two small states...only one by double digits...

And there was a path for Joe...Bernie has no path and should get the hell out.

[JT45242]

29. Math difference ...

When Biden lost the first first two states a total of less than 2 percent of the delegates had been pledged and they were being split 5 ways so that no one was getting a large lead.

Now that 47% of the delegates have been cast and there are only two people left the math dictates a different response.

Unlike the electoral college, and a buunch of Republican primaries, the Democratic primaries give out proportional delegates. Currently it sits at about 858-702 not including the 130-ish delegates from the people who dropped out and endorsed Biden. Biden will likely get most of those is that 150 delegate lead is probably closer to 200 delegates.

There are 2300 delegates left and Bernie has to win by at least 201 delegates. So, Bernie would need to win on average by 54.5 to 45.6 in EVERY state along the way but that only work if the delegate were assigned by the whole state. They are assigned by precinct, etc. There was an interesting article about how few 'odd' districts are left, which makes it even harder to gain ground. So, for a district with 6 delegates, winning 54-46 would net each candidate 3 delegates and no movement. IN a 7 delegate district that would be a net one gain.

The math dictates the response -- it is like the old physics problem that says that you need to drive 60 miles in an hour. You are only able to go 30 mph for the first 30 miles. How fast would you need to drive to average 60 mph? The answer is -- you can't. The time is all used up.

That is the situation in the primaries. With every state that votes, the closer it is to mathematically impossible for Biden to be caught. Maybe if Bernie won New York by as much as Biden won Mississippi he would have a chance, but that is highly unlikely. Barring that Sanders will hover close to 200 delegates behind even if he narrowly wins every state from here to the end.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

3. I'm starting to think he has something else in mind besides winning delegates

Feel free to make your own judgements.

[polichick]

27. I hope so - he and his supporters need to do everything he/we can...

to ensure that Dem leaders put people over profits.

Just one example: After the American people put Obama in office and gave him both houses to work with, Billy Tauzin (big pharma lobbyist) was more often in the WH than healthcare activists. (The logs that were eventually released were illuminating.)

This is the kind of thing Bernie and supporters know will happen again if establishment/corporate Dems aren’t checked by the people.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

30. Nonsense n/t

[Cha]

5. Good Luck on St Paddy's Day, Joe Biden!

[SidDithers]

6. Bernie has no path to the nomination. His campaign is done...

The only ones who can't see that are proponents of #Berniemath.

If he doesn't drop out, he's just going to keep falling farther behind in the delegate count. There's no state where he can pick up a significant delegate haul, and there are several where Biden will.

He needs to drop out. If he doesn't, then I hope he suffers embarrassingly lopsided defeats on Mar 17 and 24.

Sid

[Frasier Balzov]

7. Does he have a path to depriving Biden of a first-ballot nomination?

That is the question which continues to loom over this process.

[W_HAMILTON]

13. No, he almost assuredly doesn't.

Check 538's forecast model. Pretty much all of the delegates from here on out are either going to Biden or Sanders. The idea of a contested convention are nil at this point.

[Demsrule86]

17. No he does not have a chance and if he did big fucking deal then Biden goes in on a second ballot no

one is going to give the biggest loser ...Sanders the nomination. He should live in the real world...he only helps Trump.

[George II]

20. He is behind in every one of the remaining 31 states/territories. EVERY ONE!

[William769]

16. Seems like winning California wasn't much help either.

[George II]

19. It kept Tuesday night from being a total disaster. Even so, the delegate tally was 645-553.

[William769]

23. Understood.