Wanna win FL in the general? This settles it once and for all.

[Celerity]

ZERO chance we can win FL if Sanders is the nominee. The vastly reduced Latinx vote he will garner will NEVER make up for Trump's white voter advantage. It is impossible.

Remember, IF we lose FL plus lose WI (or lose FL plus a bigger Midwest state that he flipped in 2016 like PA or MI which means a sure loss for us), there is almost zero path to beating Trump.

If ANY of our candidates (we only have 3 left and Tulsi is a joke) become the nominee and we lose FL and WI, we have no realistic path to winning, even if we fip MI and PA.

I explain

IF we lose WI and FL, we can WIN PA, MI, MN, VA, NV, NM, CO, NH and all the truly Blue states and we STILL lose 270-268, barring ME-2 and NE-2, which I deal with below.

Further explanation:

IF we lose FL and WI, the odds are very very high that IA stays red as well, leaving only AZ and NC as remotely possible pickups and Trump is polling strong in both, especially against Sanders. OH and IN, if WI and IA are red, will be even redder. Also, if we lose WI and IA, PA and MI are also back in somewhat play for him as well more than likely as the tendlines then skew against us, the same as 2016.

The map looks like this



The other possibility is the ultimate nightmarish way for Trump to win, one that will rip the country apart.

If you look at that map above, you will see I gave Trump ME-2 and NE-2, which he won last time. Let's say we flip either (but not both, which is the ONLY way we could realistically if we lost FL and WI, if we lose FL and either PA or MI, nothing matters, we are done at that point no matter what) back to Blue (a far more likely possibility than flipping AZ or NC or IA IF we lose FL and WI)

that yield this



or



269-269

Trump wins via the House electing him, even if we control the House. The process is that each state gets one vote and 26 are needed to elect a president. The Rethugs control exactly 26 House delegations, and the only two remotely close chances to knock it down to 25 are, ding ding ding... WI and FL (you can't make this shite up!!!), but due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, the odds of us flipping either are extremely poor. Also, we could flip one, but the Rethugs could gain the one tie state, PA, and that gets them back to 26. We have no shot at 26 ourselves, and could even lose some states that we control now with 1 seat margins, like CO, MI, and AZ or even other states we control as of now with more than a one seat margin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fa6iq7MN40HIvob9li5z545pJhd1tQVgZ7GSn0kikLc/edit#gid=0


A 269-269 tie and Trump getting exactly 26 votes to win the POTUS in the House, which is the absolute bare minimum, and his getting them due to Rethug gerrymandering and voter suppression will cause riots I fear, especially if he gets crushed in the popular vote AND we hold the actual majority of House seats like we do now.

The nation may well not survive long term if Trump gets 4 more years and takes the SCOTUS to 7-2 or even 8-1 (Sotomayor has horrid chronic diabetes that has required hospitalisation already) hard RW (plus he will replace the ageing RW goon Thomas with a far younger model of thug) as well as the further cementing in of a multitude of RW hacks and scum on the rest of the federal judiciary.

All post-Brown v Board civil rights gains (and probably Brown itself) will be washed away, rolled back via a multiplicity of test cases shot up the federal judiciary ladder from the rabid RW red states. Furthermore, the RW will not stop at simply devolving decisions back to the states, instead they will try and ramrod down by force a nation-wide theocratic tyranny. The Blue states will eventually have no choice but the start a secessionist movement, which may well lead to a rupturing and rending apart of the union by 2040 at the latest.

Bernie needs to drop out and fully endorse and campaign HARD for Biden, and DEMAND his supporters do the same, demand it until he is so hoarse he can no longer speak. This #NeverBiden bollocks needs to be strangled in the crib, broken on the wheel ASAP, and Sanders simply must be one of the chief protagonists in its destruction.

[IronLionZion]

1. The attacks on Biden's age should backfire badly in a state with so many elderly

Trump's failures have put many elderly Floridians at risk of COVID19. Biden shows experienced leadership that should be comforting to many.

[OrlandoDem2]

4. Wishful thinking. I know many people over 70 who think Biden is too old (but will vote for him).

[Midnight Writer]

11. Exactly. The older I get, the more "ageist" I become.

[exboyfil]

16. That is what my dad said about Reagan

and he was a Republican. He thought no one over 60 should be elected President. I am 56 now, and I agree with him somewhat. Biden is only a little over 3 years older than Trump, and he takes far better care of himself. In a perfect world we would be behind a Klobuchar-Booker youth ticket, but that is not going to happen.

[exboyfil]

2. Summarizes it pretty well

2020 is last chance. I told my daughters I really don't want to live here anymore if Trump wins.

[Vogon_Glory]

3. A Message To The --Or Bust Voters

This election isn't a beauty pageant, it isn't just about whether we like Joe Biden, it's about the future of the country. It's a decision point as to whether we want to continue as a democratic republic or if we are willing to sit on our backsides and either let the Republicans gum up the works like they did during the latter years of the Obama administration or, worse, let the US become another oligarchical autocracy of the sort spread around much of Latin America and present-day eastern Europe.

Successful politics is about facing unpleasant facts. The fact is that however much some of us may desire radical change from post-Reagan governance, the fact is that most Democrats, and most Americans, aren't yet willing to vote for a left-liberal agenda.

I admit that Bernie has done fairly well in the primaries. But even where he's done well, the numbers show that not enough Democratic voters turned out to push him into the sixty-percentile range of victory.

We also need to acknowledge that Bernie has antagonized a large chunk of the Hispanic voting block. Whether you think it's fair or not, it's a done deal. Those folks are not only going to not vote for Bernie, they won't turn out in the numbers needed to defeat the Trump voters in the Sunshine State to make a Democratic victory certain.

This is a point where people have a chance to effect a real change--stopping Trumpism dead in its tracks--or spending the next four years and beyond grieving over what was lost between 2021 and afterwards and playing blame games while the racists and the reactionaries run rampant.

Citizens, the choice is yours.

[GatorDem82]

5. Assessment on AZ and NC is wrong....

Biden has led all recent NC polls (RCP avg of +3.4) and all recent AZ polls (RCP avg of +5). Other than that, agree with the basis that Bernie needs to just get out after today (or Tuesday). I'm in red FL county and my wife works at a school filled with Trumpers. Just hearing from her that several moderates are so sickened by him with 1 explicitly saying that if Biden is the nominee he is voting for him, otherwise he just wont vote. I'm seeing tons of those types of posts out there elsewhere as well. And now with their shittastic job during this pandemic, I feel reaaaaaaally good about our chances.

[Celerity]

8. I just checked and yes, it looks much better now. The bulk of that post was from awhile back.

Pre-Corona.

I also was thinking about a Bernie nomination and its effects on many of those states as well.

BTW, those RCP NC polls are mostly old (AZ not so much), I would like to see some newer ones.



here is 538

[Thekaspervote]

6. Agree...especially the last paragraph...sanders needs to have a come to jeezus speech

With his followers...short and to the point! Vote in November for Biden and all down ballot Dems.

Problem is...he will never do that

I will be soooo glad when bernie has gone back to VT!!!

[denem]

7. Anyone who relies on Florida has shite for brains.

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 11:43 AM - Edit history (1)

That State has the most unreliable voters and electoral systems in the country. In 2018, amid the greatest blue wave in 50 years, Dems went backwards, losing districts, striking out on Governor, losing a Senator, and once again proving that FL electoral machinery is shot.

[LuvNewcastle]

10. I agree.

Florida has been trending redder and redder. Democrats should concentrate efforts on the Midwest and the Southwest, including Texas.

[rockfordfile]

12. No that's not true.

Florida is a purple state.

It's Russian propaganda saying Florida is trending red.

[LuvNewcastle]

14. It isn't "Russian propaganda."

Both U.S. Senators from FL are GOP. The governor and state legislature are GOP controlled. The U.S. congressmen are about equally divided. So while FL isn't exactly as red as Alabama, it's still pretty red. I'd say that it's barely purple.

[exboyfil]

17. In all fairness on the Governor race

What was Gillum doing drunk and throwing up in a room with drugs in it?

[denem]

18. And Nelson lost.

No blue wave in Florida. You can't rely on them.

[Turin_C3PO]

9. I agree.

My guess is that with Biden as the nominee, and the economy turning downward, that he will win the three swing states, Florida, and Arizona with a shot at North Carolina and an outside chance at Texas, if the stars align correctly.

Hopefully, Bernie will endorse Biden this coming Wednesday and urge his supporters with urgency to vote Biden.

[Demguy81]

13. This isn't good news for either, but its devastating for Sanders.

According to CNN's 2016 exit poll, Clinton won Latinx voters in FL 62-35.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president

58-38 from Biden isn't going to cut it; even he has his work cut out for him.

[William769]

15. I have a feeling Joe Biden is going to beat trump by a lot!