538 has revised their probability for winning 1991 delegates before the convention....

[George II]

While Biden has dropped 2% from 99 in 100 (99%) to 49 in 50 (98%), he didn't lose that to his only rival, Sanders, he lost it to "No one", who is now up to 1 in 50 (2%). Sanders remains at the bottom, tied with the Dropouts at <1 in 100 (0%)

[jorgevlorgan]

1. RCP averages appear to have dropped 10% in the last 9 days

from 25% in the polls conducted from 3/11-3/15, and 15% in the polls conducted from 3/13-3/19. It is interesting if this crisis may be slowly reversing Bernie's chances.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

[George II]

4. While 538's chance of Biden may have dropped minusculy, their estimate of the delegates....

....to be won by him vs. Sanders has increased from yesterday to today - He's up 47.8 delegates, Sanders is down 22.9, a total shift of 70.7 in Biden's favor.

[jorgevlorgan]

12. a heavy factor involves the possibility of bernie dropping out.

That is still a longshot at this point, so his likelihood of winning is still probably higher than <1% realistically. I would put it at 1%. I heard that is around the likelihood of having a child after one attempt.

[Demsrule86]

18. No it doesn't...even my son in Indiana a huge Sanders supporter is angered by Sander's

behavior and will vote for Biden in the Indiana primary...the coming primaries will be humiliating for Sanders...

[TwilightZone]

7. Not sure what you're seeing.

March 20, 2020:

Biden 55.5%
Sanders 36.2%

Difference: 19.3%

March 11, 2020 (9 days ago):

Biden: 53.4%
Sanders: 36.0%

Difference: 17.4%

Biden has increased his lead by 1.9% since nine days ago. Your samples include dates that cross-over and different polls, so they're not really comparable.

[jorgevlorgan]

11. I'm just seeing the last three polls released put biden ahead 15 points

The 3 before that put him ahead 25 points. Yes, they cross over, but if (still a big if, I understand) that continues, it looks like there is an emerging trend away from Biden.

[TwilightZone]

15. Nope, Ipsos is an outlier.

If you want to compare changes over time, look at multiple dates for the same polls. The way you're doing it includes the Reuters/Ipsos poll in only one of the two totals, and it looks like a clear outlier. No one else has had Biden under 48% in a couple weeks. That's the only real difference between the two groups.

[jorgevlorgan]

16. thanks!

[Demsrule86]

19. There is no way Biden is ahead by only 15 points...and even if it were true Sanders needs to win by

20% in every remaining state which would amount to a 35% swing which won't happen. Sanders is done and honestly I don't know why you have a pic of Joe on your post...you can still have a Sanders pic.

[Cha]

2. Thanks.. I don't understand the No One.. ?

[Yavin4]

6. Arya Stark. n/t

[TwilightZone]

9. From what I recall, the model figures there's a very small possibility Biden could withdraw.

For health reasons, etc. That's basically why it's not ~100% now.

[Cha]

10. Ah right.. Thank you, TwilightZone!

[Celerity]

13. it means no one hits 1991

ie. 2nd ballot with SD's needed

[djacq]

3. Switch to show a Plurality of Pledged Delegates.

Biden's odds is 99 in 100 (99%).

Enough with considering that he'll get more than half.

Biden is the Presumptive Nominee.

[George II]

5. Ah, that's a subtle change from previously. Good observation, thanks!

[Cha]

8. Thank you, duacq..

[nolawarlock]

17. Well, at least Bernie's doing better than dropouts ...

… but no one is still beating the pants off him.