New Monmouth poll has Biden +3 over Trump nationally, but +9 in swing counties

[highplainsdem]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_032420/

West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a negligible 3 point lead over Donald Trump in the race for president, according to a national Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. The probable Democratic nominee has a larger edge, though, among voters in key swing counties across the country. The poll also finds that fewer voters say their financial situation is improving compared to a year ago, although most say it is stable for now.

Biden has the support of 48% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 45% if the presidential election was today. Another 3% say they would vote for an independent candidate and 4% are undecided. Biden has an 89% to 6% advantage over Trump among Democratic voters, while Trump has a similar 90% to 7% lead among Republicans. Independents split 45% for Trump and 44% for Biden.

-snip-

In the nearly 2,500 “red” counties that Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his current standing for this year’s election is similar at 63% who support him and 32% who support Biden. In the 360 “blue” counties that Hillary Clinton won by about 35 points on average, 60% of voters support Biden and 30% back Trump. In approximately 300 “swing” counties where the margin of victory was less than ten points for either candidate – accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate – 50% back Biden compared with 41% who support Trump. In 2016, Clinton won the cumulative vote in these counties by a single percentage point.

The poll also finds that Biden has a substantial 56% to 34% advantage over Trump among voters under 35 years old. Trump has a 53% to 40% lead among voters aged 35 to 54, while Biden has a small edge of 50% to 46% among voters aged 55 and older. Other key demographic groups break along typical partisan lines. Biden has overwhelming support among women of color (77% to 14%), strong support among white women with a college degree (63% to 33%), and sizable support among men of color (53% to 39%). Trump holds strong leads among white women without a college degree (66% to 29%) and white men without a college degree (58% to 34%). He has a smaller edge among white men who are college graduates (51% to 44%).

-snip-

Emphasis added.

[William769]

1. Great news!

[highplainsdem]

2. Yep. The news we want when we need an electoral college victory.

[SCliberal91294]

3. Looks like this pollster..

Did their best to make it a "close" race

[Turin_C3PO]

4. Good news on the swing counties.

I’d like him to have a little higher lead though. Trump might be gaining ground due to this pandemic (although I have no idea why). Hopefully, more people will see through this fascist come November and Biden wins in a landslide.

[customerserviceguy]

5. Way too close

Trump is battling his worse nightmare right now with the economy on the verge of near collapse. Biden should be thirty points ahead, not three.

[The Magistrate]

8. He Has A Temporary 'Rally Round' Boost, Sir

There is a natural tendency in crisis to close up behind the head of the State. A normal President would be receiving eighty percent support at least in this circumstance, rather than a bit over half, on the point of leading the nation in this crisis. As his failure becomes ever more evident, this will decline from its already unusually low level.




"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[helpisontheway]

6. Too close. Nt

[Polybius]

7. Bad news, that's way too close

Hillary was up around 10 points in March of 2016. We have to make sure we get out and vote for whoever is our nominee.

[Cha]

10. I think that will get much better when Biden is officially

the Nom and Pres Obama is out there campaigning with him.. Virtually or otherwise.

[Cha]

9. Thank you for this, hpd.. That will get better when Biden

is the actual candidate and has Pres Obama campaigning for him Virtually!

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. Polling showed Biden losing to BS on Super Tuesday, and we know how that turned out.

I think Biden will beat Trump by a similar margin as that of Obama v. McCain.

[Wanderlust988]

12. I think Biden has a fighting chance in Ohio too!

I could see this being a 2012 election all over again in the EC.

[rockfordfile]

13. Majority of Americans get it that trump is guilty on the virus response and they don't trust him

The lies and corruption of Trump. A few people are cherry picking polls over trump's approval of the virus situation, but the truth is Americans don't trust him on the virus lies and virus crisis handling. The more trump talks the more Americans hate him.

[BidenBacker]

14. Most of those numbers are about what I'd expect

Not real thrilled with my fellow college-educated white guys...just proves you don't have to be very smart to get a degree these days.

But I find this one very disturbing...

Independents split 45% for Trump and 44% for Biden.

Indies make up roughly 40% of the total electorate and outnumber both Dems and Pubs. Something on the order of 60%-40% in favor of Joe would lead to a blowout in November. Even just 55% of all Indies would provide us with a fairly comfortable win in November. Biden needs to work real hard to get his numbers up in that specific group.

A little more than 1/4 of all Independents are "right-leaning" and a little less than 1/4 are "left-leaning". The remaining half are "moderates" who are pretty much smack dab in the middle. This is why it's crucially important for Biden not to give in too much to Sanders' most extreme progressives. We lose the middle and we lose this general election.

[BidenBacker]

15. Now this recent Quinnipiac poll makes me feel a lot better

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3657

5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Indies said 52% Biden to 34% Trump. Scaled to 100% that's 60% Biden and 40% Trump...right where I just said in my previous post would result in a blowout.

That is MUCH more what I would expect and believe these Quinnipiac numbers compared to the Monmouth poll. I seriously doubt the government's handling of coronavirus over the last coupla weeks made the Indie vote swing that much...and if anything I'd expect them to only get worse for the Imbecile-in-Chief.