Biden leads Trump in new polls despite coronavirus approval bounce

[UncleNoel]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/biden-leads-trump-polls-despite-coronavirus-bounce-152944
Biden leads Trump in new polls despite coronavirus approval bounce
By STEVEN SHEPARD 03/29/2020 07:58 AM EDT

ABC News/Washington Post poll 49:47 [Biden +2]
FOX Newsy: 49:47 [Biden +7]
Monmouth: 48:45 [Biden +3]

snip''

Three polls released over the last week show Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump among voters nationwide, despite the uptick in Trump’s approval rating as his administration confronts the coronavirus outbreak engulfing the U.S.

Biden’s lead is far from secure, given the tumultuous situation gripping the country and Trump’s 2016 advantage in the Electoral College. The latest result, in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday, shows Biden with just a 2-point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent — well within the survey’s margin of error.

Biden also led Trump among registered voters in national polls released last week by Fox News and Monmouth University. The Fox News survey, conducted over roughly the same time period last week, shows Biden 9 points ahead of Trump, 49 percent to 40 percent. The Monmouth poll, which was conducted a little earlier, over last weekend, had Biden at 48 percent, with Trump at 45 percent.

Even if the Fox News poll is an outlier, all three surveys show a consistent pattern: In each, Trump has equaled or surpassed his previous high-water mark in job approval. But his vote share against Biden in each survey trails his approval rating.

Taken together, the polls suggest a slightly larger-than-usual slice of Democratic-leaning and independent voters are telling pollsters they now approve of the job Trump is doing as president — but support for giving him a second term lags behind among these same voters.

A report on the ABC poll was a bit snide, focussing on the enthusiasm meme. However it had some figures:
https://us.yahoo.com/gma/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll-040000356--abc-news-topstories.html
Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll
[Good Morning America] SOFI SINOZICH
Good Morning AmericaMarch 29, 2020

snip//

In the nomination contest, 51% of leaned Democrats now prefer Biden vs. 42% for Sanders. That’s a vast 34-point gain for Biden since mid-February, with other candidates having left the race and endorsed him. Sanders gained 10%age points.

Yet even as he’s advanced in his party, Biden’s slipped against Trump in a November matchup. The two are locked into essentially a dead heat among registered voters, 49-47%, Biden-Trump, after a slight Biden lead, 52-45%, in February.

Biden does better vs. Trump among all adults (Democrats are less apt to be registered), 50-44%. That’s a slight lead, but it was more solidly significant in February, 52-44%.

I will skop the enthusiasm stuff. A lot of enthusiastic young people just don't vote, and a lot of so-called unenthusiastic folks faithfully trudge to the voting booth. Enthusiasm is not a good measure of electability.

Trump will fade late spring and summer. I think dramatically.

Joe will b eat Trump like a drum.

[samnsara]

1. whoever gave trump* that bump have changed their minds pretty quickly!

[enough]

2. The fact that it's this close is disturbing. NT

[UncleNoel]

3. His bump will fade. What is significant is that despite the bump, he is trailing. That alone is very

telling. A bump in the road is just an up and down and then a clear road ahead.

[True Blue American]

11. Every time

Trump opens his mouth, shows his pettiness, be nice to me, for God’s sake! His stupidity is astounding!

[BidenBacker]

24. My first boss told me something

I never forgot when I was getting ready to make my first technical presentation to a large audience and was pretty nervous about it.

"If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, then baffle them with bullshit."

Wise words that served me well over the course of my career. But Trump takes it to a whole new level.

[UncleNoel]

31. My PhD prof used to say about Deans,

Last edited Mon Mar 30, 2020, 02:08 AM - Edit history (1)

If you can't convince them, confuse them. After A meeting, he would write them A memo about what they decided--being confused they would just go along with it. Worked every time (he was Dept chair)

[lastlib]

6. We have to keep working as if Joe is BEHIND....!

...by ten points! With Vladdy-Daddy lurking in the dark, no lead is safe! Keep Pushing!

No polls count except for one in November!

[LiberalLoner]

10. Exactly! I won't feel confident until after I see Trump departing the White House forever.

Maybe not even then. I will feel the most confident when he is either in prison or his grave. Then I can relax.

[jimfields33]

14. Those numbers add up to 96 percent total

There are 4 percent that I guess are not sure.

[Rebl2]

15. Same here

I don’t see this as great news for Biden unfortunately. You are right it is very disturbing and how anyone can think he’s been a great leader throughout this pandemic is foolish-and I’m being kind . He knew this in early January and did nothing hoping it would not come here or would just go away.

[former9thward]

4. The last Washington Post poll had Biden ahead by 7.

Now its 2, so he has gone down 5 points. You may dismiss enthusiasm but people who have run campaigns don't. It is a important factor. Historically the Republican candidate does better in polling in the summer and early fall. That is when pollsters start to poll likely voters instead of registered voters. Republicans usually do better among likely voters.

As we know, Trump does not need to win the popular vote. He can win the electoral college with 46-47% of the popular vote. Ignore that if you wish.

[UncleNoel]

5. Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg had the enthusiasm. Bidenwon the votes.

[former9thward]

9. They had the enthusiasm among primary voter activists.

Which is a tiny, tiny percentage of the people who actually vote in a general election.

[The Magistrate]

7. The 'Enthusiasm' Bit Is Nonesense, Sir

People on the right love to trumpet their anger, it is what they live for.

The sort of people on whom this election will turn are people who hate quietly. It is a new emotion for them, that they honestly would rather not be feeling, and they are disinclined to make much noise over it. They know people really shouldn't allow themselves to be moved by hate, and feel a little embarrassed to find it a leading emotion for them. But hatred for and disgust with Trump are widespread among the voting public, and run to deeper depths with each passing day. If I were to answer honestly questions on a poll meant to measure 'engagement' with current events, I would be written off as not too likely to vote at all by standard metrics. The fact is, I am just waiting to vote, and so do not care much about the froth of the byplay of news and commentary. Punditry is going to make the same mistake in assessment they did before the Congressional elections in 2018.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[UncleNoel]

12. Well said!

I don't know what they are eliciting for "enthusiasm" since that emotion can be deep and quiet as well. Maybe when they are asked the question they think it must be jumping up and down and shouting. I am entusiastic for Joe, but it is a deep-seated feeling of stability and reliability rather than party, party!!

[llmart]

16. We dismiss this at our own peril.

It's not the supposed "enthusiasm" or even the numbers, it's the reporting of it on mainstream morning shows that influences people.

It was the very first thing I heard when I turned on my TV this morning, thinking I was tuning in to see my local weather report (I don't normally watch news). I heard the words "enthusiasm for Trump" and "surging poll numbers for Trump". That's all some people need to hear to then be influenced into thinking the majority of Americans are seeing his leadership during a crisis as presidential.

Joe is going to be walking a fine line between not turning off Americans during a crisis by playing politics and not hitting back hard enough against the failures of Trump. Remember - Dubya was seen as some sort of strong leader during 9/11 even though he was anything but. He grabbed that bullhorn and his numbers soared.

[The Magistrate]

17. Recent Polling Already Shows The 'Rally Round' Boost Is Gone, Sir

The man makes a most repellent spectacle with his regular afternoon preens and rants.

People want Trump assailed, there is no 'fine line' at the moment. And this will become even harsher as time goes no and the bodies pile up.



"Americans love a winner! And hate a loser!"





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[underpants]

8. People are just tired of the Whining.

Yes there's a rally around effect but these daily turdstorm shows can't be helping.

Dems are absolutely killing it with suburban women but it's all about turn out.

[UncleNoel]

13. Turnout is crucial.

[efhmc]

18. The Washington Post shows that 15% of Bernie supporters will vote for Trump.

NEW @ABC/@washingtonpost poll

General election head-to-head
Biden: 49%
Trump: 47%

Among Sanders supporters:
Biden: 80%
Trump: 15%

Please explain this to me.

[Cha]

20. That's tragic

[efhmc]

22. It was a lead on twitter this morning and that is the only reason I know about it but

it is mind boggling to me. How can they possibly call themselves Democrats?

[Cha]

27. Or love the Planet like most of us do?

[BidenBacker]

26. That's it

Taking down my Ralph Nader dartboard and putting up my Bernie Sanders one.

Now if you will all excuse me, I got some darts to sharpen.

[efhmc]

28. Hope it works better than the last time.

[BidenBacker]

29. Me too

Needed a new board anyway since that Nader one was getting pretty worn out after all these years.

But before I hang my new Bernie one I better put an extra inch of padding behind it because I'm really gonna be burying them darts, boy.

[Cha]

19. Mahalo, Noel. No way should the trumpVirus

be getting a "bounce" for calling it a Hoax and Dem Conspiracy for weeks and continually lying and blowing it.

[BidenBacker]

21. Approval polls and election polls are two different things

Approval polls indicate that roughly half of all Americans are hoping against hope that the same clueless MFer who got us into this mess can somehow get us out of it...like a blind squirrel finding a nut.

Election polls show that a significant majority of Americans realize that the chances of this happening are practically zilch and that we need to get this stupid SOB outta there ASAP, if not sooner.

[totodeinhere]

23. Two of those three polls have it well within the MOE.

And those are national polls and we all know that the election will be won or lost in a few swing states. I am not comforted by those polls.

[Promisep]

25. That lead is too small for my taste

I want it to grow. I want it at at least 6% in all polls.

[Polybius]

30. 2 points is a lead?

If Biden wins by only 2 points, it likely means we lose the EC. Hillary won by 2 points.