Our base may be shifting - the numbers (Stipulating using Gallup's MF45 last approval #s)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Who in the world would have thought people hate Trump more in Texas than in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin? And, who would have thought that 40% of the people in Oregon and Virginia and DELAWARE would approve of this maniac! Notes: 270 Needed to win; Obama Approval at 2016 election - 53%)

A. Let's call safe, based on Dingbat's latest approval - Under 40% Approval:

State/Approval/EVs/Won EC 2016:
1. HI..26%..4..HRC
2. VT..28%..3..HRC
3. MA..29%..11..HRC
4. CA..29%..55..HRC
5. MD..31%..10..HRC
6. NY..32%..29..HRC
7. IL..35%..20..HRC
8. NJ..35%..14..HRC
9. NH..35%..4..HRC
10.RI..36%..4..HRC
11.WA..36%..12..HRC
12.CT..36%..7..HRC
13.ME..37%..4..HRC 3, DJT 1
14.NM..38%..5..HRC
15.MN..39%..10..HRC
16.CO..39%..9..HRC
17. DC...3..HRC

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 204

B. Add in Dingbat's approval - 40% approvals:
18.DE..40%..3..HRC
19.OR..40%..7..HRC
20.NV..40%..6..HRC
21.VA..40%..13..HRC

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL: 233 (2016- HRC: 232, DJT:1)

C. Add in Dingbat's approval - 41% approvals:
22.TX..41%..38..DJT

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES : 271 (2016- HRC 232, DJT: 39)

D. Add in Dingbat's approval - 42% approvals:
23.MI..42%..16..DJT
24.PA..42%..20..DJT
25.WI..42%..10..DJT

--TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 317 - WITHOUT TEXAS, 279 - NEEDED TO WIN?:270
(2016 - HRC 232, DJT: 85)

E. Add in "NEW SWING" Dingbat's approval - =>43% and =<49% approvals:

26. FL..43%..29..DJT
27. AZ..43%..11..DJT
28. GA..44%..16..DJT
29. IO..45%..6..DJT
30. NC..45%..15..DJT
31. OH..48%..18..DJT
32. IN..48%..11..DJT
33. NE..49%..5..DJT
34. LA..49%..8..DJT

--TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 436 - WITHOUT TEXAS, 398 - NEEDED TO WIN?:270
(2016- HRC: 232, DJT: 204)


SCARY

(snip)Texas as a whole is relatively competitive in terms of party identification, Republicans continue to dominate in statewide elections there, perhaps because of lower participation among Hispanics. To the extent Republican voters in the key states participate at higher rates than Democratic voters, a Trump job approval rating in the mid- to high 40s may be enough to allow him to win those states

.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/247004/trump-job-approval-higher-states-2018.aspx
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/allocation.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[Wellstone ruled]

1. It is in the end,all about

getting your Candidates supporters to the polls. We Dems here in Nevada proved this fact in the last two Election Cycles. Without our Ground Game,we most likely would have seen a different undesired results.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Exactly. BUT, it works the exact same way on the other side. We have to take back

states "won" by DJT. All they have to do there to get their minions out is to roll out the scare on Facebook and Rush

[Wellstone ruled]

5. It could,but in our case,

we ate their friggin lunch. The Thugs spent millions hiring people to go door to door,hired people. We had a all volunteer ground game and I have never feared the Opposition when it comes to ground games. All about organization and keeping all lines of Communication open.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. That's true, guess it depends on what states

We are talking about. Trump's below 50% in Nebraska!!! Texas, Indiana!!

[Wounded Bear]

7. Remember, some of those states were "won" on razor thin margins...

With good Dem turnout, I think we could overturn that in PA, and 2018 results in MI and WS were very encouraging.

Not all is doom and gloom.

[Wellstone ruled]

8. I know Wisconsin,

you put the bodies on the ground,with the right Democratic Message,you will win hands down.

[Garrett78]

9. There were so many oddities in 2016 that won't be factors in 2020.

We had dominated PA, WI and MI ever since 1992. Then, in 2016, we had 2 historically unpopular candidates facing off. 1 because millions had been conditioned to hate her over a period of 25 years, and the other because he's a giant asshole. We had Comey's last minute announcement. We had a build-up of racial resentment combined with a 'let's give an outsider a shot' attitude. We had Russia's shenanigans (aspects of which will remain an issue).

Now, Trump isn't new anymore. And his "strong disapproval" number is very high. And we have an opportunity to nominate someone who will contrast with Trump very sharply, to our benefit.

With Harris (and maybe Beto as VP), I think 360+ electoral votes are within reach. I think we would see record-breaking Dem turnout.

[Wounded Bear]

10. All good points...

I just hope Dems maintain the 2018 momentum.

[Garrett78]

11. And Trump will likely be even more damaged than he is now.

There will inevitably be disenchanted Trump voters who vote Dem regardless of who we nominate. You don't base a campaign or nomination selection on converting Trumpies. It's all about turning out the Obama coalition in a big way.

[zipplewrath]

2. Imports

I saw a post election evaluation of Texas that showed that "native" Texans voted democratic, but the GOP is being held up by "imports" from other states who chose to move to Texas. We see a bit of that in Florida as well where it tends to be the retirees that keep the GOP in power, and they just keep coming. I've always been a bit suspicious that it is connected with the lack of income taxes in these states.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. Wow, that's interesting. I have always thought that people who got transferred in,

into the big cities, were making them more blue. But, now that you mention it, I think lots of people are moving here for lower taxes, less regulation,less government in your face.

With Beto and Cruz, from my observations, Beto was flying....then BANG, Cruz started spreading fear and fake stuff about him on Facebook (MOM-book). It spread like fire and Beto plateaued.

So to me, the bigger factor is the GOTBV (Get out the bigot vote)