As all this begins to unfold, I think it looks more and more like

[MineralMan]

Senator Sanders missed his best shot at becoming President. The political scene has shifted since Trump got into the White House. It doesn't seem to me that Bernie Sanders is who people are looking for for 2020.

Now, I could be wrong, of course, but that's my take on it at this early point.

So, I am changing my preference from Undecided to Biden, officially. If he chooses not to run, I'll revert back to Undecided, but I think he's going to announce this week.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. ?

Are you talking about the Cohen testimony?

[MineralMan]

2. No. I'm talking about that in the General Discussion Forum.

This is the Democratic Primaries Forum, so any comments I make here have to do with that.

[melman]

10. Yes

OP is playing an obvious game here. This is what is meant by "as this begins to unfold"

Of course they then deny implying what is clearly implied. But that's the game.

[R B Garr]

15. Wow, I see a game being played, but it's not by the OP,

[MineralMan]

17. I'm not playing any game at all.

I'm offering up my opinion. Isn't that what we do here?

I do not thing that Bernie Sanders has a strong chance of emerging as the Democratic nominee. I think he had a better chance in the last election, but didn't quite get there. I don't see his chances as being stronger for 2020. In fact, given the pretty exciting field of potential candidates, I think his chances are even less.

You might not agree with that opinion, and you're welcome to say so, but I'm not playing any games. I'm never playing a game here.

[Maru Kitteh]

3. He wasn't who they were looking for in 2016, hence the whole not nominated thing.

But yeah, I agree that ship has left the dock, and it ain't coming back.

[MineralMan]

4. That's what I meant by "his best shot."

That shot missed the mark, though. The target has been moved, now.

[shanny]

5. What's really too bad is that we missed our chance.

[MineralMan]

6. I don't really see it that way at all.

The chance we missed was having Hillary Clinton as President. She was the nominee in 2016, as you might remember. Somehow, we failed to put her in the White House. Bernie Sanders was not on the ballot in November of 2016.

Every once in a while, I think about what we'd be talking about right now had Clinton won the Electoral College vote. Don't you?

[shanny]

7. OK. But the thing is the only data

we had at the time showed Hillary in a close race with tRump (i.e. ahead but never outside the margin of error)...and Bernie beating him by a mile. Since we don't currently have access to multiple universes and/or dimensions, we can't test the validity of that data.

However, by any standard, Bernie would have been better than what we got.

[MrsCoffee]

29. What's really too bad was the fucking stolen election.

There fixed it for you.

[shanny]

30. fwiw pukes have been stealing elections at least since 2000

and what, exactly, have we done to address that? we have no agency in what happens? how comforting that must be.

[Hortensis]

8. :) Haven't you heard? Sanders is the NEW Biden.

He's a real centrist now because he is truly representative of most Americans. Those liberal progressives he was deriding as centrists before are now not centrists but fakes.

He's taken a lock on the white hair and age also, and I've heard is being coached on projecting a new, warm "Uncle Bernie" persona, making Uncle Joe sadly redundant.

Sorry, MM. Keep looking.

[WeekiWater]

9. A recent NH poll has me thinking the same thing.

It has actually dramatically changed what I had thought. I thought Sanders had an easy path. Now thinking I was really wrong on that.

[Garrett78]

24. The name recognition polls mean nothing at this point.

What tells us Sanders has no path is the primary schedule, and the competition he faces. If Beto runs, there goes Bernie's hope of dominating among millennials.

Those who insist that Sanders has a path (much less an easy path) seem to be flat-out ignoring the primary schedule. And the fact that there will be far fewer caucuses this time around. It's entirely possible that Vermont is the only state he'll win.

[exboyfil]

26. The early California primary might clear the field quickly

and I am all in favor of that. The largest state should have the biggest voice.

I wish we would change how we did primaries. Break it up into five week rotating schedules based on roughly equivalent electoral votes. I live in Iowa, and I really don't want to be first all the time.

[Garrett78]

28. It's possible we'll know who the nominee will be after Super Tuesday, but I doubt it.

I do think, though, we'll know who all is out of the running by the end of March 3.

I'm all for having a handful of individual contests prior to having a series of 4-5 Super Tuesdays. I think those opening contests provide a valuable service; they winnow the field. And they give more candidates the opportunity to make themselves a contender. If we start off with 10 states voting on the same day, the vote-splitting could be ridiculous. I just wish those opening contests took place in states that better reflect our electorate.

Anyway, I'm guessing we'll be down to 2-4 candidates after Super Tuesday. In terms of delegates, we'll be more than 60% of the way through following the March 17 primaries.

[melman]

11. What does this have to do with changing your preference?

[MineralMan]

13. Do I need a reason to change my preference?

It doesn't matter at this stage, anyhow.

[R B Garr]

12. K&R! Agreed. Can't figure out why some posters

on your thread think there is some conspiracy/game with noticing that Sanders has missed his shot.

[MineralMan]

14. I don't know, really.

I'm just analyzing what I see, as best I can. My opinion only, of course.

There's plenty of time to be wrong yet.

[honest.abe]

16. No doubt.

His role should be more of a sage adviser to the Democratic nominees on issues he is strong on.. like income inequality and campaign finance reform.

[Turin_C3PO]

18. Yes, I think Sanders time has passed.

I was a Sanders supporter last primary season but his decision to not remain a Democrat afterward made me lose a little respect from him. Plus, I don’t like the Bernie or Bust attitude that some have.

So, my choice is Joe Biden. I think he’ll play well in the swing states and possibly win in places like Arizona and Ohio.

I’d love to see Kamala Harris as his running mate. She’s my second choice in the primary.

[MineralMan]

19. I think a Biden/Harris ticket would be a strong one.

I think it has appeal across a broad spectrum of Democrats, and offers an interesting mix of personal characteristics to boot.

It's a real possibility. Looking at the preferences here on DU, it looks like we're not the only ones who think so, either.

[Perrenial Voter]

23. I think you are right about Sanders, especially with younger

progressives in the race. The thing is, no one else has a long consistent record of promoting progressive policies, so people like Harris, Warren and Booker need an authentic narrative about their evolution that pulls people in. I think Harris has done the best, so far. Biden is not as progressive, but has the most relevant experience and at least has not forgotten his working-class roots, which would serve him well with the white working class. Harris is the most forceful of the candidates at this point, and I think this quality is essential for a candidate to win. One reason I think we have not had a woman president is that Americans tend to feel we need someone strong and uncompromising as President and women have not been socialized to exhibited these traits (Clinton tried, but it often was interpreted as arrogance rather than strength--and yes I know this is a double-bind that women face). In terms of winning, then, a Biden/Harris ticket would probably have the best shot, though I would really love to see Harris as attorney general.

So why am I tagged as saying I support Sanders? The same reason I supported him in 2016: because I like his policy proposals and want to signal that support to the party. I never expected him to win, and am not sure that he has the set of skills that would make him an effective president. However, I think he makes a terrific gadfly, and he would probably wield more power as a movement leader than as president, anyway. But I also like Elizabeth Warren's domestic policy proposals, and some of Harris's as well. My hope is that as, as the primary progresses, Warren and Sanders will get behind one the younger candidates and become part of his/her policy team. That would add intellectual heft and progressive credentials to that campaign, while uniting the progressive wing of the party.

[shanny]

20. Bernie's time may have passed.

Biden's definitely has. Anita Hill, the crime bill, the bankruptcy bill--all of those issues are firing up our party, and Biden was on the wrong side of all of them. Want to depress turnout, even in the Time of tRump? Choose Biden.

[R B Garr]

21. Bernie was never vetted. That's not going to hold.

There’s plenty of stuff about Bernie that can be put on blast mode like you are trying with Biden.

Bernie didn’t win liberal progressive California or New York, and his group’s attacks on popular Senator Feinstein didn’t pan out. Now people are looking at the divisiveness and what it got them—Trump. No thanks.

[Amimnoch]

22. Hoping like hell that you are right.

Really want to be a part of the movement that ousts tRump.

For right now I’m with Beto. However, once it starts, I’m 100% supporting ANY candidate that is beating or closest to beating Sanders.

NO BS in 2020.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Sanders vs. Trump would have been fascinating

Fear of Trump vs. Fear of Socialism. It would have been very simple for them to exchange emails for socialism so anyone who thinks Sanders would have maintained similar popularity throughout is nuts.

But he might have gotten over the line. Sanders would have been extremely aggressive in the debates. He might have known to actually campaign in those upper midwestern states.

There is no question that was his best opportunity. I always feel sad for an Olympian who barely missed 4 years earlier and then tries again. Much more often than not there's a new hungry crop and the second time is worse.

[democratisphere]

27. Biden is the only choice for 2020.

Welcome aboard.