Beto O'Rourke has reportedly decided not to run for Senate next year and likely Run for Pres instead

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

Beto O’Rourke has reportedly decided not to run for Senate next year and likely will announce a campaign for president soon.

“Amy and I have made a decision about how we can best serve our country. We are excited to share it with everyone soon.”

[rurallib]

1. Oh dude - run for the senate, please.

[hlthe2b]

4. Yes... I think it is foolish not to take a reasonably good opportunity for a Senate win

against the extremely low odds of a successful Presidential bid--that is unless this is all about the Vice Presidency (and I'd agree his odds could increase on that score).

[sunonmars]

5. I think so probably its about VP but then again, he can pull out the young vote brilliantly.

[Pisces]

31. I think he'll announce VP for Joe. I hope anyway

[Garrett78]

32. Nobody announces that they're running to be selected as VP.

Some certainly run in hopes that they'll be considered for VP or a cabinet post, or to just boost their public profile. I don't think that's the case with Beto. Regardless, nobody openly runs for VP.

[radius777]

41. Exactly, that is absurd,

and imo being floated by other camps to try to 'throw shade' on his potential run.

Beto, who is a charismatic figure and fundraising machine like Obama was, would be a top tier candidate should he enter, with good odds of winning the nom. Should he come up short then he would likely be a finalist for the VP consideration.

[Garrett78]

42. He has better odds than almost every other candidate.

I love the idea of a Harris-O'Rourke ticket.

[radius777]

44. Agree, would be a powerful ticket. /nt

[qazplm135]

9. If he can't beat the most hated guy

everywhere he goes, I don't see how he beats Cornyn.

Similar electorate, better liked, better approvals. Whatever gains he'd make with increased turnout on our side would be offset by similar on the other side, and less crossover IMO.

[Cha]

14. I agree.. he almost beat the "hated"

cruz but too many brainwashed idiots wanted fascism anyway.

If he wants to run for Prez then I say Go For IT. He'll contribute to the inclusive and enthusiasm factor.. imv.

[bmbmd]

16. Agreed.

Cornyn, believe it or not, is considered "statesmanlike" in my home state. Cruz is fairly universally despised, but still managed to squeak out a victory. As a vice-presidential candidate, though-Beto might just deliver the Lone Star State. (Trump approval hovers around 42%, disapproval about 52%)

[Cha]

20. Thanks for that interesting

back story on Texas, bmbmd!

[radius777]

43. Agree, also Trump will be on the ballot

and bring out the deplorables in a way that Cruz could not.

Beto imo can more help us win that state on all levels if he's on the national ticket as Pres or VP nominee.

[Old Vet]

54. +10000

[MiniMe]

12. Beating Cornyn is different than beating Cruz

If he couldn't beat the guy that everybody hates, he probably can't beat the guy that a lot like.

[EndGOPPropaganda]

24. He's got a shot. TX is shifting every day

And cornyn will be greatly hurt by the GOP brand and associations with the president. As the GOP and Trump have more revelations against them, that will hurt cornyn.

[RLG]

19. Why shouldn't he run?

You strike while the iron is hot.

He has name recognition and can raise money. He should go for it.

Anyway, why must he run for the Senate? Why him over the Castro twins?

[uppityperson]

25. Welcome

[True Dough]

26. RBG would definitely be a revered poster here

But we're happy to have RLG too!

[Bucky]

2. I love this news! He's among my four most-likely-to-support candidates

I think he's uniquely a transformative candidate. I'll have to wait to see the substance of his positions. But he's an incredible campaigner and will definitely help uplift the tone of the 2020 primary season.

[leftofcool]

6. Mine too

Every time I hear him speak I am reminded of Bobby Kennedy.

[rurallib]

7. I am supporting whoever has the D behind their name

[Amimnoch]

10. And he works magic down ticket!!!

For the first time in my life, and the first time since George HW Bush took the seat in the 1960’s, Texas House District 7 is now represented by Lizzie Pannel Fletcher. We worked our asses off in our district canvassing, and phone banking for her, but I saw first hand.. it was the Beto effect that gave our party that seat.

He almost won a senate seat in TEXAS!!! He CAN win the Presidency, and he WILL do us proud!!

Beto 2020!!!!

[Cha]

15. I feel your Enthusiasm, Amimnoch!

[OBrien]

53. Agee from a fellow Houstonian

We could win Texas no doubt! I love him!

[True Dough]

27. He's my second choice

I root for underdogs, obviously.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. Yes!!!¡!!

[samnsara]

3. senate first puhleazzze.....

...love him but not ready to see another loss...that may discourage him and hes got a lot of potential.

[Bucky]

11. He has more experience in Congress than Obama had when he decided to run.

He has 3 times the experience Abraham Lincoln had in Congress when he ran.

If he's inspired people from around the country to listen to his vision and ideas, that's really the only test of who should run. Going after Cornyn's seat is a certain loser in Texas. That could be an incredible waste of talent and enthusiasm in an election where winning or losing could mean everything to our republican form of government.

[NurseJackie]

8. I think, in reality, realistically speaking... he's running for Vice President.

And that's perfectly fine too.

[Bucky]

13. I honestly don't think anyone is doing that.

When someone puts it out on the line like that, it makes no sense to think they're going for the silver medal.

[NurseJackie]

21. It makes perfect sense.

It's an audition. Long game.

[Bucky]

22. To run for president in hopes of becoming someone else's vice president?

You don't much about Beto, do you?

[NurseJackie]

23. There's no shame in auditioning. And it's clearly happened before.

To run for president in hopes of becoming someone else's vice president?

There's no shame in auditioning. And it's clearly happened before.

You don't much about Beto, do you?

I know enough to conclude that he won't be the party's nominee and that his best hope for national office is that our party's nominee will see him as being good enough to serve as VP.

[End Of The Road]

50. I agree!

And I think it’s a great move. He’s leapfrogging Cornyn (to whom he would likely lose in a Senate race) so running for pres will give him national media coverage that has all but dried up since his loss to Cruz (which I believe was fixed, FWIW). Beto definitely has a political future, and this is the best way to keep his momentum going.

I’m anxious to see what type of campaign he has planned. He can’t drive around the entire country doing his own laundry and eating at Whataburger. But whatever, I hope he can maintain the grassroots feeling that made him so respected in Texas.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Not surprising...he has fantastic instincts

Beto would be a monumental fool to run for senate against Cornyn. It would ruin his career. Texas is not in play in 2020. As I posted last night, Texas is a massive favorite to bounce in the other direction in 2020, closer to 5 or 6 points red than the 2.5 points Beto lost by. The fundamentals simply aren't there. Not yet and not with 43-44% self-identified conservatives. Only the ones who use wishful subjective fluff and ignore foundational math have hope for Texas in 2020.

I would prefer to nominate a male. Beto has always been my first choice and Klobuchar second. I will switch to Beto if he officially enters.

I would have lost complete faith in Beto if he had been dense enough to run for senate. It was either presidency or nothing.

[Tetrachloride]

18. ORourke for Senate

How many good candidates are there in Texas for Senate ?


How many good candidates are there running for President ?

Not every one is destined for President.

[Garrett78]

28. Bernie's path will get even rockier. Millennials will love Beto.

[tinrobot]

37. Between Beto and Warren, Bernie might have problems.

Beto takes away millenials. Warren takes away women.

Bernie's base gets smaller.

[Garrett78]

38. Super Tuesday won't go well for Sanders regardless. IA and NH may not either.

Not to mention NV and SC.

Inslee, with an emphasis on climate change, may also appeal to quite a few millennials. And Biden, of course, would stand a good chance in NH and elsewhere in New England.

[Amimnoch]

49. Heh, I hadn't even considered that angle at all.

I'm not a millennial, but I absolutely adore Beto, and I've seen first-hand the powerful effect he has for helping down-ticket candidates.

If supporting him helps keep BS OFF the head of our ticket, huge bonus imo. Yet another reason for me to adore him.

[PupCamo]

29. flash in the pan?

probably

[Garrett78]

30. I don't think so. He's pretty damn impressive.

He has a better chance of winning the nomination than the vast majority of candidates. I'd put him in my top 3. I've said before that I think a Harris-O'Rourke ticket would produce record-breaking Democratic turnout.

[PubliusEnigma]

34. If he took the Senate seat first, he would be guaranteed the Presidency.

Otherwise, not so much.

[Garrett78]

35. He probably wouldn't beat Cornyn, and then a cabinet post is the best he could hope for.

As is, he may end up in the cabinet, but this gives him a shot at POTUS or VPOTUS. I'd give him better odds than nearly every other candidate.

[joshcryer]

46. With a field this wide, you never fucking know.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. Quick anecdote on Beto

In late October I spent a week in the Boston area. One day I visited the JFK Museum and adjacent Edward Kennedy Senate Institute. Outside the senate building they had campaign signs on the lawn for prominent Democrats throughout the country. Quite an impressive display of at least two dozen signs.

But the visitors there only seemed to care about one of them, and it was not the local candidate Elizabeth Warren. When I entered that building and when I departed there were people taking selfies or having their pictures taken alongside the Beto sign. I stood and watched one group do it and then a couple came up to me and asked if I would take their picture with the Beto sign in the background.

I was already aware of Beto's national popularity but that example really stamped it. Of course, that was prior to the loss to Cruz so I guess it could be argued that Beto's reputation took a bit of a hit, although I don't know how that is possible given the incredible drop to only a 2.6 point margin. Only people who overstate Texas' shift to preposterous level were unimpressed by that number against Cruz.

[Maru Kitteh]

39. He's very engaging and has a unique stage from which to attack Trump.

Harris/O'Rourke could be okay with me. I like many of our candidates. It's a nice feeling.

[Awsi Dooger]

40. Texas is perhaps in play with Beto as nominee

I still think he would lose, but probably by a similar 2 point margin and not the 5-6+ that we would figure to lose minus Beto.

Not impossible he could pull it out, but only if we had a semi-wave equating to maybe a 4-5 point popular vote margin nationally. I make that at least a 4/1 underdog.

Beto as nominee would definitely force Trump to campaign and spend money in Texas. They'll probably do that anyway, given the narrow senate result of 2018.

Beto does not like to attack. That means he would likely need to already be within the top handful entering the debates. It would also be interesting to see if someone else on our side took Beto to task for not preferring to campaign negatively, while insisting it is a necessity agains Trump. I do not agree with that but it is certain to hold conventional wisdom.

[FBaggins]

51. He would have the best shot, but your prediction is overly optomistic

Remember that Coryn won six years ago by a couple dozen point... not 5-6. Even in 2008 with Obama's coattails picking up eight senate seats... he still won by a dozen points.

What I fear is that Beto would go from losing by 2-ish to losing by six or so points... and would look like his appeal was fading when it was actually a better performance (relatively) than last year.

My preferred path for him is to wait for 2022 and take the gubernatorial seat. Then win the White House in 2028.

[ucrdem]

45. Oh good to hear.

I was worried that those early hit jobs might have permanently discouraged him. I'm glad he snapped out of it. They were pretty vicious.

[Vinca]

47. Beto has the "Obama factor." He's qualified and a total rock star.

I wish we didn't choose presidents primarily by personality, but that's the way it is. I'd rather have a Beto who can beat Trump than a more serious, subdued candidate who hands him a second term.

[dalton99a]

56. +1. Beto can fill stadiums and get people to the polls

He can also fill campaign coffers. His coat-tail effect in Texas was historic.

[Tetrachloride]

48. ORourke for Senate

We need a full slate of prime candidates.

What kind of Democrats are we if we are already giving up on Texas.

After the election, we don't want our losing candidates to go away. There are positions open everywhere for them. All kinds of White House, Cabinet and "sub-cabinet" (sorry if the term is incorrect) positions.

I do like having a well-rounded group running for President. But the math for Texas is shifting in favor of blue sooner or later. I dont want to wait 7 years for the next opportunity.

[TeamPooka]

52. There goes our best shot to win a Senate seat in Texas.

No Congressman has won the White House in the last what, 160 years?.
You need to prove you can win a statewide office first.
That's sad
I was hoping he would run for Senate again
he can beat Cornyn in 2020 but he won't win the White House.
he's a potential VP candidate at best.

[andym]

55. Now that Joaquin Castro is interested in the Texas Senate seat

The road for Beto O' Rourke to pursue the Presidency is clearer from the point of view of maximizing Democratic Party gains.

[McCamy Taylor]

58. Castro could mobilize enough voters to negate e-vote fraud

In Texas! And Castro for Senate could coat tail Texas for Beto!

[McCamy Taylor]

57. Texas e-voting is rigged. He can not win Senate in Texas

But he could easily win president.