How Beto will change the 2020 race How Beto will change the 2
by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski at the Point CNN email
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1. It speeds up the decision-making process of Joe Biden. O'Rourke, based on early national and key state polls, is a top-tier candidate. He's also someone who is going to lock up a chunk of major donors as well as coveted national and state-level operatives with the quickness. What Biden can't let happen is for O'Rourke to get on too much of a roll before the former VP formally enters the race.
2. It narrows the path for a dark horse. With O'Rourke in and Biden almost sure to follow, we would have the four poll leaders -- those two plus Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris -- all confirmed as candidates. That quartet accounts for a significant chunk of Democratic voters. Assuming all four, or three of the four, can maintain something close to their current level of support for the next year, it leaves an even smaller piece of the pie for the likes of Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York or Sherrod Brown of Ohio or former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro.
3. It raises the financial bar for viability. O'Rourke, based on the $80(!) million he raised for his Senate candidacy in 2018, could well be the fundraising leader in the 2020 race in six months' time. He's got a national list of very activated small-dollar givers that is the envy of every candidate this side of Sanders. With O'Rourke (and his small-dollar donor army) in the race, you have a group of fundraising heavy-hitters that includes Sanders, Biden, Harris ($15 million raised in 2016) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ($34 million raised in 2018).
There are other Beto impacts, too. For one: Depending on how he chooses to position himself ideologically -- his 2018 Senate campaign was more about emotion than policy -- he could crowd the liberal lane or add another contender to the sensible-ish center.
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